Maine Black Bears at Boston University Terriers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 10, 7:00 PM ETCase Gym · at Boston U

#323MEMaine69▲ winner

Final

#261BUBoston U59final

Closing lineBU -8.5✓ ME covered by 18.5

Closing total128.5Under by 0.5

Season records: Maine and Boston U
ME	This season	BU
0-11	Record	3-6
4-7	ATS	4-5
4-7	O/U	6-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ME 63–71 BU · ✗ BU (77%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ME	33	36	69
BU	24	35	59

1st half: ME 33, BU 24 (ME by 9). The model had BU by 4.9 and a total of 63.0 (actual 57).

Team stats

ME		BU
25-46 54%	Field goals	20-56 36%
7-12 58%	3-pointers	9-35 26%
12-15 80%	Free throws	10-16 63%
25 5 off	Rebounds	32 16 off
11	Assists	11
9	Steals	7
4	Blocks	3
14	Turnovers	15
15	Fouls	11
28	Points in paint	22
6	Fast-break points	0

Players

ME	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
TJ Biel F	34	17	4	0	7-11	2-3
Ryan Mabrey G	31	6	4	2	2-6	2-3
Logan Carey G	30	14	3	3	6-9	2-2
Mekhi Gray G	29	10	0	2	3-5	0-1
Keelan Steele F	28	8	7	2	2-6	0-0
Bench
Caleb Crawford G	15	7	0	0	2-4	0-1
Ace Flagg F	13	3	1	1	1-3	1-2
Isaac Bonilla G	9	2	4	0	1-1	0-0
Bashir N'Galang G	6	2	1	1	1-1	0-0
Amare Allen G	5	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: John Shea, Joshua Ojuri, Emmitt Byther, Killian Gribben, Darius Lopes, Yanis Bamba

BU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mike McNair Jr. G	38	12	8	3	4-11	3-9
Ben Defty C	35	19	11	1	7-13	0-0
Ben Roy G	32	6	0	3	2-5	2-4
Malcolm Chimezie F	25	5	6	0	2-2	0-0
Sam Hughes F	20	9	2	1	3-7	3-7
Bench
Azmar Abdullah G	24	5	1	1	2-9	1-8
Ethan Okwuosa G	15	0	1	1	0-7	0-5
Donte Tisinger Jr. G	11	3	3	1	0-2	0-2

Did not play: Otto Landrum, Kyrone Alexander, Andrew Bhesania, Chance Gladden, Peter Carr, Matai Baptiste, Quinn Nielsen, Spencer Joyner

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BU -8.5	BU -8.4	ME +0.1	W ME covered
Total	128.5	134.3	Over 5.8	L Under
Projected score	—	ME 62.9 · BU 71.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BU -4.9	ME -9.0
1H total	63.0	57
1H projected score	ME 29 · BU 33.9	ME 33 · BU 24

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ME LWWLL	4-7	36%	2-5	4-7
BU LWWLL	4-5	44%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: ME away, as underdog; BU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ME OUUUO	4-7	36%	0-11
BU UOOUO	6-3	67%	3-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ME	0-10 0%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
BUlast 9	3-6 33%	4-5 44%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ME 1–1 BUSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · ME 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 29, 2024-25	BU 59 @ ME 56	ME -3.5	BU W
Dec 6, 2023-24	ME 74 @ BU 65	BU +2.5	ME W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Maine

11 games played

Straight up

0-11

0% wins

Against the spread

4-7

36% covers · avg −2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-7

36% overs · avg −4 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-110%

L L L L L L L L L L L

11 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-736%

W L W L L L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-736%

U U O U O U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GW	L 47-67	+20.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 114
Nov 8	@STBK	L 60-71	+3.5	L −7.5	131.5	U 131
Nov 10	@RUTG	L 60-72	+18.5	W +6.5	130.5	O 132
Nov 16	vsQUIN	L 64-70	+3.5	L −2.5	137.5	U 134
Nov 19	@MRMK	L 65-72	+6.5	L −0.5	130.5	O 137
Nov 23	vsBRWN	L 53-58	+1.5	L −3.5	127.5	U 111
Nov 28	@AMER	L 61-74	+7.5	L −5.5	133.5	O 135
Nov 29	vsLONG	L 61-65	+5.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 30	vsSIE	L 60-64	+9.5	W +5.5	127.5	U 124
Dec 3	@OHIO	L 57-79	+12.5	L −9.5	138.5	U 136
Dec 6	@M-OH	L 61-93	+17.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 47-67

+0.5

STBK

L 60-71

−7.5

RUTG

L 60-72

+6.5

QUIN

L 64-70

−2.5

MRMK

L 65-72

−0.5

BRWN

L 53-58

−3.5

AMER

L 61-74

−5.5

LONG

L 61-65

+1.5

SIE

L 60-64

+5.5

OHIO

L 57-79

−9.5

M-OH

L 61-93

−14.5

covered 4didn’t cover 7avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 47-67

−29.5

STBK

L 60-71

−0.5

RUTG

L 60-72

+1.5

QUIN

L 64-70

−3.5

MRMK

L 65-72

+6.5

BRWN

L 53-58

−16.5

AMER

L 61-74

+1.5

LONG

L 61-65

−12.5

SIE

L 60-64

−3.5

OHIO

L 57-79

−2.5

M-OH

L 61-93

+14.5

over 4under 7avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Boston U

9 games played

Straight up

3-6

33% wins

Against the spread

4-5

44% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-3

67% overs · avg +12.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-633%

W L W L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-544%

W L W L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-367%

O U O O U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NE	W 76-75	+2.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 151
Nov 7	@NU	L 52-76	+17.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 12	vsBRWN	W 90-77	-3.5	W +9.5	129.5	O 167
Nov 15	vsMRMK	L 79-91	-2.5	L −14.5	135.5	O 170
Nov 18	@COLU	L 49-54	+4.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 103
Nov 22	vsHARV	W 75-74	+4.5	W +5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 25	@PSU	L 87-96	+14.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 183
Nov 29	@NKU	L 65-74	+7.5	L −1.5	143.5	U 139
Dec 6	@UNH	L 82-88	-5.5	L −11.5	134.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 76-75

+3.5

L 52-76

−6.5

BRWN

W 90-77

+9.5

MRMK

L 79-91

−14.5

COLU

L 49-54

−0.5

HARV

W 75-74

+5.5

PSU

L 87-96

+5.5

NKU

L 65-74

−1.5

UNH

L 82-88

−11.5

covered 4didn’t cover 5avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 76-75

+8.5

L 52-76

−8.5

BRWN

W 90-77

+37.5

MRMK

L 79-91

+34.5

COLU

L 49-54

−41.5

HARV

W 75-74

+12.5

PSU

L 87-96

+40.5

NKU

L 65-74

−4.5

UNH

L 82-88

+35.5

over 6under 3avg +12.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Maine Black Bears at Boston University Terriers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Maine

Boston U

Maine

Boston U