Case Gym · at Boston U · Conference game
Closing line
BU -4.5✓ LAF covered by 0.5
BU -4.5✓ LAF covered by 0.5Closing total145.5Over by 4.5
 LAF | This season | BU |
|---|---|---|
| 4-14 | Record | 6-12 |
| 7-10 | ATS | 7-11 |
| 11-6 | O/U | 11-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: LAF 71–76 BU · ✓ BU (67%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAF | 39 | 25 | 9 | 73 |
| BU | 30 | 34 | 13 | 77 |
1st half: LAF 39, BU 30 (LAF by 9). The model had BU by 2.9 and a total of 68.5 (actual 69).
Team stats
| LAF | BU | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-69 41% | Field goals | 29-57 51% |
| 10-29 34% | 3-pointers | 9-25 36% |
| 7-9 78% | Free throws | 10-16 63% |
| 36 10 off | Rebounds | 37 6 off |
| 15 | Assists | 16 |
| 12 | Steals | 3 |
| 4 | Blocks | 7 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 12 |
Players
| LAF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams G | 42 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 8-16 | 4-10 |
| Andrew Phillips G | 39 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 7-18 | 4-9 |
| Christian Humphrey-Rembert F | 35 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 2-9 | 2-7 |
| Mark Butler G | 35 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 2-10 | 0-1 |
| Shareef Jackson F | 32 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 7-11 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ryan Pettit G | 17 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Misha Bednostin C | 12 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| KaiMani Murdock F | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Joshua Wyche F | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Luke Bevilacqua F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Luka Savicevic, TJ Berger, Beckett Currie, Ashton Wallace, Luke Azzinaro, Justin Vander Baan, Malik Rasul, Folabomi Fayemi, Chris Rubayo
| BU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Hughes F | 42 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 8-14 | 3-8 |
| Chance Gladden G | 42 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 4-12 | 0-2 |
| Mike McNair Jr. G | 39 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 5-10 | 3-6 |
| Azmar Abdullah G | 38 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 3-8 | 2-6 |
| Ben Defty C | 35 | 12 | 9 | 1 | 5-7 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Donte Tisinger Jr. G | 20 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Quinn Nielsen F | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Malcolm Chimezie, Andrew Bhesania, Matai Baptiste, Ben Roy, Peter Carr, Otto Landrum, Spencer Joyner, Kyrone Alexander, Ethan Okwuosa
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketBU -4.5
ModelBU -5.2
Model edgeBU +0.7
L LAF covered
Total
Market145.5
Model146.3
Model edgeOver 0.8
W Over
Projected score
LAF 70.6 · BU 75.7
LAF 73 · BU 77
Win probability
BU 67%
1st half
Spread
BU -2.9
LAF -9.0
Total
68.5
69 points
Projected score
LAF 32.8 · BU 35.7
LAF 39 · BU 30
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBU -3.5
1 → BU
CloseBU -4.5
1 pt toward BU
Total
Open147.5
▼ 2
Close145.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
LAF +190 · BU -230
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BU -3.5 · closed BU -4.5 · moved 1 toward BUmodel BU -5
model BU -5
Opened 147.5 · closed 145.5 · moved 2 downmodel 146.5
model 146.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAF | 3-7 30% | 4-5 44% | 5-4 56% |
| BU | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
LAF 3–6 BUBU leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · BU has won the last 2 meetings · LAF 5-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2025-26 | BU 83 @ LAF 67 | LAF +1.5 | BU W |
| Mar 1, 2024-25 | LAF 64 @ BU 66 | BU -2.5 | LAF W |
| Jan 2, 2024-25 | BU 46 @ LAF 60 | LAF +1.5 | LAF W |
| Jan 27, 2023-24 | BU 62 @ LAF 48 | LAF -6.5 | BU W |
| Jan 6, 2023-24 | LAF 59 @ BU 51 | BU -5.5 | LAF W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Lafayette
18 games played
Straight up
4-14
22% wins
Against the spread
7-10
41% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-6
65% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ JOES | L 76-85 | +13.5 | W +4.5 | 138.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 8 | @ TEX | L 60-97 | +25.5 | L −11.5 | 153.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 13 | vs COR | L 78-97 | +4.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 17 | @ WVU | L 59-81 | +24.5 | W +2.5 | 135.5 | O 140 |
| Nov 21 | @ STO | L 70-74 | -1.5 | L −5.5 | 141.5 | O 144 |
| Nov 28 | vs LEM | L 63-76 | -4.5 | L −17.5 | 151.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 29 | vs BALL | W 55-37 | +1.5 | W +19.5 | 140.5 | U 92 |
| Nov 30 | vs MONM | L 74-88 | +1.5 | L −12.5 | 141.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 5 | vs MERC | W 79-71 | — | — | — | — |
| Dec 8 | @ PENN | L 72-74 | +7.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 18 | @ CLT | L 67-81 | +11.5 | L −2.5 | 137.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 20 | @ GT | L 81-95 | +16.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | O 176 |
| Dec 31 | vs COLG | L 77-85 | +6.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 3 | @ L-MD | W 79-64 | -1.5 | W +13.5 | 152.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 7 | vsBU | L 67-83 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 142.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 10 | @ NAVY | L 50-76 | +8.5 | L −17.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Jan 14 | @ BUCK | L 69-76 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 137.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 17 | vs HC | W 74-55 | -2.5 | W +16.5 | 138.5 | U 129 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@JOES
JOESL 76-85
+4.5
8
@TEX
TEXL 60-97
−11.5
13
vsCOR
CORL 78-97
−14.5
17
@WVU
WVUL 59-81
+2.5
21
@STO
STOL 70-74
−5.5
28
vsLEM
LEML 63-76
−17.5
29
vsBALL
BALLW 55-37
+19.5
30
vsMONM
MONML 74-88
−12.5
8
@PENN
PENNL 72-74
+5.5
18
@CLT
CLTL 67-81
−2.5
20
@GT
GTL 81-95
+2.5
31
vsCOLG
COLGL 77-85
−1.5
3
@L-MD
L-MDW 79-64
+13.5
7
vsBU
BUL 67-83
−14.5
10
@NAVY
NAVYL 50-76
−17.5
14
@BUCK
BUCKL 69-76
−4.5
17
vsHC
HCW 74-55
+16.5
covered 7didn’t cover 10avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@JOES
JOESL 76-85
+22.5
8
@TEX
TEXL 60-97
+3.5
13
vsCOR
CORL 78-97
+14.5
17
@WVU
WVUL 59-81
+4.5
21
@STO
STOL 70-74
+2.5
28
vsLEM
LEML 63-76
−12.5
29
vsBALL
BALLW 55-37
−48.5
30
vsMONM
MONML 74-88
+20.5
8
@PENN
PENNL 72-74
−4.5
18
@CLT
CLTL 67-81
+10.5
20
@GT
GTL 81-95
+28.5
31
vsCOLG
COLGL 77-85
+15.5
3
@L-MD
L-MDW 79-64
−9.5
7
vsBU
BUL 67-83
+7.5
10
@NAVY
NAVYL 50-76
−15.5
14
@BUCK
BUCKL 69-76
+7.5
17
vsHC
HCW 74-55
−9.5
over 11under 6avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Boston U
18 games played
Straight up
6-12
33% wins
Against the spread
7-11
39% covers · avg −2.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-7
61% overs · avg +11.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ NE | W 76-75 | +2.5 | W +3.5 | 142.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 7 | @ NU | L 52-76 | +17.5 | L −6.5 | 136.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 12 | vs BRWN | W 90-77 | -3.5 | W +9.5 | 129.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 15 | vs MRMK | L 79-91 | -2.5 | L −14.5 | 135.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 18 | @ COLU | L 49-54 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 144.5 | U 103 |
| Nov 22 | vs HARV | W 75-74 | +4.5 | W +5.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 25 | @ PSU | L 87-96 | +14.5 | W +5.5 | 142.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 29 | @ NKU | L 65-74 | +7.5 | L −1.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 6 | @ UNH | L 82-88 | -5.5 | L −11.5 | 134.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 10 | vs ME | L 59-69 | -8.5 | L −18.5 | 128.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 13 | @ DART | L 64-77 | +2.5 | L −10.5 | 144.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 21 | vs UML | W 88-76 | -5.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 31 | @NAVY | L 77-82 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 137.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 3 | vs AMER | L 62-64 | -1.5 | L −3.5 | 142.5 | U 126 |
| Jan 7 | @LAF | W 83-67 | -1.5 | W +14.5 | 142.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 10 | vs ARMY | W 100-91 | -7.5 | W +1.5 | 140.5 | O 191 |
| Jan 14 | vs LEH | L 91-93 | -4.5 | L −6.5 | 144.5 | O 184 |
| Jan 17 | @L-MD | L 57-74 | -1.5 | L −18.5 | 148.5 | U 131 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@NE
NEW 76-75
+3.5
7
@NU
NUL 52-76
−6.5
12
vsBRWN
BRWNW 90-77
+9.5
15
vsMRMK
MRMKL 79-91
−14.5
18
@COLU
COLUL 49-54
−0.5
22
vsHARV
HARVW 75-74
+5.5
25
@PSU
PSUL 87-96
+5.5
29
@NKU
NKUL 65-74
−1.5
6
@UNH
UNHL 82-88
−11.5
10
vsME
MEL 59-69
−18.5
13
@DART
DARTL 64-77
−10.5
21
vsUML
UMLW 88-76
+6.5
31
@NAVY
NAVYL 77-82
−0.5
3
vsAMER
AMERL 62-64
−3.5
7
@LAF
LAFW 83-67
+14.5
10
vsARMY
ARMYW 100-91
+1.5
14
vsLEH
LEHL 91-93
−6.5
17
@L-MD
L-MDL 57-74
−18.5
covered 7didn’t cover 11avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@NE
NEW 76-75
+8.5
7
@NU
NUL 52-76
−8.5
12
vsBRWN
BRWNW 90-77
+37.5
15
vsMRMK
MRMKL 79-91
+34.5
18
@COLU
COLUL 49-54
−41.5
22
vsHARV
HARVW 75-74
+12.5
25
@PSU
PSUL 87-96
+40.5
29
@NKU
NKUL 65-74
−4.5
6
@UNH
UNHL 82-88
+35.5
10
vsME
MEL 59-69
−0.5
13
@DART
DARTL 64-77
−3.5
21
vsUML
UMLW 88-76
+18.5
31
@NAVY
NAVYL 77-82
+21.5
3
vsAMER
AMERL 62-64
−16.5
7
@LAF
LAFW 83-67
+7.5
10
vsARMY
ARMYW 100-91
+50.5
14
vsLEH
LEHL 91-93
+39.5
17
@L-MD
L-MDL 57-74
−17.5
over 11under 7avg +11.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Lafayette
4-14 overall · 2-4 in conference · Patriot League
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Holy Cross74–55
- L@ Bucknell69–76
- L@ Navy50–76
- Lvs Boston U67–83
- W@ Loyola MD79–64
4 days since their last game.
Boston U
6-12 overall · 2-4 in conference · Patriot League
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Loyola MD57–74
- Lvs Lehigh91–93
- Wvs Army100–91
- W@ Lafayette83–67
- Lvs American62–64
4 days since their last game.