American University Eagles at Boston University Terriers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ETCase Gym · at Boston U · Conference game

#153AMERAmerican64▲ winner

Final

#261BUBoston U62final

Closing lineBU -1.5✓ AMER covered by 3.5

Closing total142.5Under by 16.5

Season records: American and Boston U
AMER	This season	BU
6-6	Record	4-9
7-5	ATS	5-8
9-3	O/U	8-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: AMER 74–75 BU · ✗ BU (56%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
AMER	38	26	64
BU	32	30	62

1st half: AMER 38, BU 32 (AMER by 6). The model had BU by 1.0 and a total of 69.8 (actual 70).

Team stats

AMER		BU
23-49 47%	Field goals	20-53 38%
8-21 38%	3-pointers	10-28 36%
10-12 83%	Free throws	12-17 71%
29 4 off	Rebounds	34 10 off
13	Assists	8
7	Steals	5
1	Blocks	4
8	Turnovers	8
16	Fouls	14
26	Points in paint	20
2	Fast-break points	4

Players

AMER	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Greg Jones F	36	16	1	0	6-7	2-2
Geoff Sprouse G	30	12	4	3	4-7	4-7
Matt Mayock F	30	4	4	7	2-5	0-2
Wyatt Nausadis G	28	3	3	2	1-6	1-2
Julen Iturbe F	24	14	3	0	5-8	1-3
Bench
Madden Collins G	22	13	7	1	4-9	0-2
Kade Sebastian G	14	0	1	0	0-3	0-3
Chris Eagan F	8	2	0	0	1-3	0-0
Luke Brown F	8	0	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Dean Hogans, Adrian Samuels, Carson McDonald, Matthew Casey, Jack Anderson, Gibraltar Coleman, Noah Jones, Eric Michaels, Shane O'Reilly, Kamran Prince

BU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Chance Gladden G	37	19	4	2	6-12	3-6
Mike McNair Jr. G	37	11	2	2	4-11	1-7
Azmar Abdullah G	33	14	6	1	5-10	4-8
Ben Defty C	27	10	12	1	3-7	0-0
Malcolm Chimezie F	25	2	7	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
Sam Hughes F	27	6	0	2	2-7	2-5
Donte Tisinger Jr. G	14	0	0	0	0-5	0-2

Did not play: Andrew Bhesania, Ben Roy, Otto Landrum, Quinn Nielsen, Matai Baptiste, Ethan Okwuosa, Kyrone Alexander, Spencer Joyner, Peter Carr

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BU -1.5	BU -1.9	BU +0.4	L AMER covered
Total	142.5	148.9	Over 6.4	L Under
Projected score	—	AMER 73.5 · BU 75.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BU -1.0	AMER -6.0
1H total	69.8	70
1H projected score	AMER 34.4 · BU 35.4	AMER 38 · BU 32

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AMER LWLLW	7-5	58%	2-3	3-4
BU LLLWL	5-8	38%	2-2	2-3

Venue/role: AMER away, as underdog; BU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
AMER OOOUU	9-3	75%	6-6
BU OUUOO	8-5	62%	4-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AMER	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
BU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

AMER 2–6 BUBU leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · AMER 0-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 22, 2024-25	BU 44 @ AMER 48	AMER -4.5	BU W
Jan 8, 2024-25	AMER 54 @ BU 60	BU -2.5	BU W
Feb 21, 2023-24	BU 67 @ AMER 52	AMER -5.5	BU W
Jan 10, 2023-24	AMER 68 @ BU 72	BU -1.5	BU W
Feb 8, 2022-23	AMER 54 @ BU 60	BU -2.5	BU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

American

12 games played

Straight up

6-6

50% wins

Against the spread

7-5

58% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-3

75% overs · avg +7.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-650%

L W L L W L W W W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

7-558%

W W L W W L W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

9-375%

O O O O O U O O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WAKE	L 74-88	+19.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 162
Nov 9	vsPENN	W 84-78	+1.5	W +7.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 12	@GW	L 67-107	+17.5	L −22.5	151.5	O 174
Nov 18	@RUTG	L 71-80	+16.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 151
Nov 28	vsME	W 74-61	-7.5	W +5.5	133.5	O 135
Nov 29	vsSIE	L 55-59	+2.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 114
Nov 30	vsLONG	W 92-66	-5.5	W +20.5	148.5	O 158
Dec 3	vsDREX	W 75-73	-4.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 148
Dec 6	vsUMES	W 78-60	-10.5	W +7.5	130.5	O 138
Dec 18	@VCU	L 83-105	+19.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 188
Dec 22	@UVA	L 51-95	+27.5	L −16.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 31	vsL-MD	W 84-69	-8.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+5.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

−22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

W 74-61

+5.5

SIE

L 55-59

−1.5

LONG

W 92-66

+20.5

DREX

W 75-73

−2.5

UMES

W 78-60

+7.5

VCU

L 83-105

−2.5

UVA

L 51-95

−16.5

L-MD

W 84-69

+6.5

covered 7didn’t cover 5avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+22.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

+22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

W 74-61

+1.5

SIE

L 55-59

−23.5

LONG

W 92-66

+9.5

DREX

W 75-73

+10.5

UMES

W 78-60

+7.5

VCU

L 83-105

+33.5

UVA

L 51-95

−7.5

L-MD

W 84-69

−1.5

over 9under 3avg +7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Boston U

13 games played

Straight up

4-9

31% wins

Against the spread

5-8

38% covers · avg −2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-5

62% overs · avg +11.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-931%

W L W L L W L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-838%

W L W L L W W L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

8-562%

O U O O U O O U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NE	W 76-75	+2.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 151
Nov 7	@NU	L 52-76	+17.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 12	vsBRWN	W 90-77	-3.5	W +9.5	129.5	O 167
Nov 15	vsMRMK	L 79-91	-2.5	L −14.5	135.5	O 170
Nov 18	@COLU	L 49-54	+4.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 103
Nov 22	vsHARV	W 75-74	+4.5	W +5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 25	@PSU	L 87-96	+14.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 183
Nov 29	@NKU	L 65-74	+7.5	L −1.5	143.5	U 139
Dec 6	@UNH	L 82-88	-5.5	L −11.5	134.5	O 170
Dec 10	vsME	L 59-69	-8.5	L −18.5	128.5	U 128
Dec 13	@DART	L 64-77	+2.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 141
Dec 21	vsUML	W 88-76	-5.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 164
Dec 31	@NAVY	L 77-82	+4.5	L −0.5	137.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 76-75

+3.5

L 52-76

−6.5

BRWN

W 90-77

+9.5

MRMK

L 79-91

−14.5

COLU

L 49-54

−0.5

HARV

W 75-74

+5.5

PSU

L 87-96

+5.5

NKU

L 65-74

−1.5

UNH

L 82-88

−11.5

L 59-69

−18.5

DART

L 64-77

−10.5

UML

W 88-76

+6.5

NAVY

L 77-82

−0.5

covered 5didn’t cover 8avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 76-75

+8.5

L 52-76

−8.5

BRWN

W 90-77

+37.5

MRMK

L 79-91

+34.5

COLU

L 49-54

−41.5

HARV

W 75-74

+12.5

PSU

L 87-96

+40.5

NKU

L 65-74

−4.5

UNH

L 82-88

+35.5

L 59-69

−0.5

DART

L 64-77

−3.5

UML

W 88-76

+18.5

NAVY

L 77-82

+21.5

over 8under 5avg +11.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

American University Eagles at Boston University Terriers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

American

Boston U

American

Boston U