North Florida Ospreys at Wofford Terriers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 19, 7:00 PM ETJerry Richardson Indoor Stadium · at Wofford

Final

#248WOFWofford86▲ winner

Closing lineWOF -10.5✓ UNF covered by 2.5

Closing total161.5Over by 2.5

Season records: North Florida and Wofford
UNF	This season	WOF
0-2	Record	2-2
2-0	ATS	2-2
1-1	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UNF 75–85 WOF · ✓ WOF (82%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UNF	35	43	78
WOF	34	52	86

1st half: UNF 35, WOF 34 (UNF by 1). The model had WOF by 6.2 and a total of 75.0 (actual 69).

Team stats

UNF		WOF
29-63 46%	Field goals	32-63 51%
14-33 42%	3-pointers	6-25 24%
6-8 75%	Free throws	16-25 64%
27 4 off	Rebounds	43 13 off
18	Assists	18
8	Steals	9
1	Blocks	2
11	Turnovers	10
16	Fouls	10
28	Points in paint	50
6	Fast-break points	15

Players

UNF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kamrin Oriol G	34	22	1	3	8-16	4-7
Mason Lee G	31	13	4	4	5-10	2-6
Kent Jackson G	29	10	4	4	4-10	2-7
Devin Hines G	26	4	2	2	2-4	0-1
Dalton Gayman F	23	4	3	1	2-5	0-2
Bench
BJ Plummer G	19	16	2	1	5-7	4-6
Dante Oliver G	12	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Trey Cady G	11	6	6	0	2-7	1-2
Nestor Dyachok F	9	0	2	0	0-3	0-1
Taylor Thompson G	6	3	2	2	1-1	1-1

Did not play: Alex Vargo, Arden Begaj, Gabe Jacobs, Mason Watkins

WOF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Luke Flynn G	33	10	9	1	3-8	2-5
Cayden Vasko G	32	10	5	6	3-8	0-3
Nils Machowski G	30	11	4	4	3-12	2-9
Kahmare Holmes G	29	21	9	3	7-11	1-3
Brian Sumpter F	19	8	8	1	4-7	0-2
Bench
Rex Stirling F	20	8	6	0	4-5	0-0
Chace Watley G	19	16	1	2	7-8	1-2
Max Ortega G	8	2	0	0	1-2	0-0
Brendan Rigsbee G	7	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Jayden Tyler G	3	0	0	1	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Davis Miller, Grayson Collins, Alessandro Perotti, Callum Richard, Cannon Richards

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	WOF -10.5	WOF -10.5	—	UNF covered
Total	161.5	160.0	Under 1.5	L Over
Projected score	—	UNF 74.7 · WOF 85.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	WOF -6.2	UNF -1.0
1H total	75.0	69
1H projected score	UNF 34.4 · WOF 40.6	UNF 35 · WOF 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNF WW	2-0	100%	2-0	2-0
WOF LWLW	2-2	50%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: UNF away, as underdog; WOF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNF UO	1-1	50%	0-2
WOF UOOO	3-1	75%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNFlast 2	0-2 0%	2-0 100%	1-1 50%
WOFlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

North Florida

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

2-0

100% covers · avg +6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg +4 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

2-0100%

W W

2 straight covers2 of 2 covered

Over / Under

1-150%

U O

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@FLA	L 64-104	+43.5	W +3.5	169.5	U 168
Nov 12	@TENN	L 66-99	+41.5	W +8.5	155.5	O 165

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FLA

L 64-104

+3.5

TENN

L 66-99

+8.5

covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FLA

L 64-104

−1.5

TENN

L 66-99

+9.5

over 1under 1avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Wofford

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-175%

U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GMU	L 46-70	+14.5	L −9.5	140.5	U 116
Nov 8	vsMILW	W 86-76	+3.5	W +13.5	150.5	O 162
Nov 11	@AUB	L 62-93	+27.5	L −3.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 15	@BELL	W 94-86	-3.5	W +4.5	156.5	O 180

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GMU

L 46-70

−9.5

MILW

W 86-76

+13.5

AUB

L 62-93

−3.5

BELL

W 94-86

+4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GMU

L 46-70

−24.5

MILW

W 86-76

+11.5

AUB

L 62-93

+2.5

BELL

W 94-86

+23.5

over 3under 1avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

North Florida @ Wofford

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

North Florida

Wofford

North Florida

Wofford