South Dakota Coyotes at St. Thomas Tommies: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 7, 9:00 PM ETLee & Penny Anderson Arena · at St Thomas · Conference game

Final

#212STMNSt Thomas99▲ winner

Closing lineSTMN -14.5✓ SDAK covered by 1.5

Closing total162.5Over by 22.5

Season records: South Dakota and St Thomas
SDAK	This season	STMN
5-8	Record	9-4
6-7	ATS	5-8
5-8	O/U	7-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SDAK 78–89 STMN · ✓ STMN (83%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SDAK	31	55	86
STMN	53	46	99

1st half: SDAK 31, STMN 53 (STMN by 22). The model had STMN by 6.5 and a total of 77.8 (actual 84).

Team stats

SDAK		STMN
29-59 49%	Field goals	37-59 63%
12-23 52%	3-pointers	9-20 45%
16-17 94%	Free throws	16-21 76%
31 9 off	Rebounds	26 5 off
14	Assists	28
2	Steals	10
3	Blocks	1
16	Turnovers	9
13	Fouls	18
28	Points in paint	54
2	Fast-break points	8

Players

SDAK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Isaac Bruns G	34	24	6	1	8-17	2-3
Evan Anderson G	30	4	4	3	1-4	1-2
Uzziah Buntyn G	26	6	2	3	2-3	2-3
Jordan Crawford G	24	7	2	2	2-5	1-4
Cameron Fens C	19	8	11	0	4-11	0-0
Bench
Trent Hudgens G	24	17	0	4	5-7	1-2
Ethan Kizer F	23	13	0	0	4-8	4-8
Silas Bennion G	19	5	3	1	2-3	1-1
Caleb Kizer F	1	2	1	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Jonah Funk, Jalen Hayes, Jesse McIntosh, Luke Bruns, Vince Buzelis, Ashton Smith, Josiah Dotzler, Porter Ihnen, Shey Eberwein, Jake Brack

STMN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nick Janowski G	31	11	3	4	3-8	0-4
Nolan Minessale G	28	22	4	12	9-15	0-0
Carter Bjerke F	25	12	4	1	4-6	2-3
Austin Herro G	24	6	4	5	2-2	0-0
Ben Oosterbaan F	24	4	2	2	2-4	0-1
Bench
Isaiah Johnson-Arigu F	26	25	4	1	10-13	4-6
Jermaine Coleman F	19	11	4	2	4-7	3-6
Ryan Dufault G	17	6	1	1	3-3	0-0
Hayden Tibbits G	2	2	0	0	0-0	0-0
Adam Tauer G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Tim Franks G	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Tommy Humphries Jr. G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jack Tauer G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Luka Momcilovic, Ryan Lafferty, Kyle Counts

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	STMN -14.5	STMN -11.1	SDAK +3.4	W SDAK covered
Total	162.5	166.1	Over 3.6	W Over
Projected score	—	SDAK 77.5 · STMN 88.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	STMN -6.5	STMN -22.0
1H total	77.8	84
1H projected score	SDAK 35.6 · STMN 42.1	SDAK 31 · STMN 53

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDAK WLWLL	6-7	46%	2-4	2-5
STMN LWWLL	5-8	38%	2-3	5-5

Venue/role: SDAK away, as underdog; STMN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDAK OOOOU	5-8	38%	5-8
STMN OUUOO	7-6	54%	9-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDAK	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
STMN	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

SDAK 6–2 STMNSDAK leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · SDAK 7-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 19, 2024-25	STMN 80 @ SDAK 85	SDAK +3.5	SDAK W
Jan 11, 2024-25	SDAK 104 @ STMN 119	STMN -9.5	STMN W
Feb 17, 2023-24	SDAK 80 @ STMN 83	STMN -12.5	SDAK W
Jan 18, 2023-24	STMN 73 @ SDAK 74	SDAK +5.5	SDAK W
Jan 28, 2022-23	SDAK 81 @ STMN 67	STMN -4.5	SDAK W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

South Dakota

13 games played

Straight up

5-8

38% wins

Against the spread

6-7

46% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-8

38% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-838%

L L W W L W W L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-746%

L W W W L L W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-838%

U U U U U O U U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUTU	L 79-81	-1.5	L −3.5	164.5	U 160
Nov 5	@CREI	L 76-92	+29.5	W +13.5	169.5	U 168
Nov 12	vsUSI	W 89-74	-7.5	W +7.5	164.5	U 163
Nov 16	vsWMU	W 83-78	-3.5	W +1.5	172.5	U 161
Nov 20	@MIZ	L 68-102	+24.5	L −9.5	171.5	U 170
Nov 23	vsSCST	W 82-81	-15.5	L −14.5	160.5	O 163
Nov 29	vsAF	W 80-63	-3.5	W +13.5	147.5	U 143
Dec 3	vsPRST	L 71-77	+2.5	L −3.5	158.5	U 148
Dec 6	@UNCO	L 87-89	+8.5	W +6.5	162.5	O 176
Dec 9	@WYO	L 79-106	+14.5	L −12.5	161.5	O 185
Dec 13	vsPV	W 97-85	-6.5	W +5.5	168.5	O 182
Dec 20	@KSU	L 76-106	+21.5	L −8.5	176.5	O 182
Dec 31	@NDSU	L 61-84	+11.5	L −11.5	164.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTU

L 79-81

−3.5

CREI

L 76-92

+13.5

USI

W 89-74

+7.5

WMU

W 83-78

+1.5

MIZ

L 68-102

−9.5

SCST

W 82-81

−14.5

W 80-63

+13.5

PRST

L 71-77

−3.5

UNCO

L 87-89

+6.5

WYO

L 79-106

−12.5

W 97-85

+5.5

KSU

L 76-106

−8.5

NDSU

L 61-84

−11.5

covered 6didn’t cover 7avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTU

L 79-81

−4.5

CREI

L 76-92

−1.5

USI

W 89-74

−1.5

WMU

W 83-78

−11.5

MIZ

L 68-102

−1.5

SCST

W 82-81

+2.5

W 80-63

−4.5

PRST

L 71-77

−10.5

UNCO

L 87-89

+13.5

WYO

L 79-106

+23.5

W 97-85

+13.5

KSU

L 76-106

+5.5

NDSU

L 61-84

−19.5

over 5under 8avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

St Thomas

13 games played

Straight up

9-4

69% wins

Against the spread

5-8

38% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-6

54% overs · avg +0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-469%

L W L W W W L W L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-838%

L L L W W L L W L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-654%

O O U U O U O U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SMC	L 58-84	+13.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 8	vsARMY	W 83-76	-18.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 10	@WSU	L 71-81	+2.5	L −7.5	157.5	U 152
Nov 13	vsGB	W 80-61	-13.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 15	@SEMO	W 84-72	-2.5	W +9.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 21	vsUNCO	W 73-72	-4.5	L −3.5	157.5	U 145
Nov 22	vsCSUF	L 80-88	-11.5	L −19.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 23	@PORT	W 76-66	-5.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 142
Dec 3	@MTST	L 74-82	+2.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 156
Dec 7	vsWEB	W 88-65	-7.5	W +15.5	154.5	U 153
Dec 13	@UNCA	W 80-59	-3.5	W +17.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 20	vsUCR	W 92-78	-14.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 4	vsDEN	W 92-88	-11.5	L −7.5	163.5	O 180

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SMC

L 58-84

−12.5

ARMY

W 83-76

−11.5

WSU

L 71-81

−7.5

W 80-61

+5.5

SEMO

W 84-72

+9.5

UNCO

W 73-72

−3.5

CSUF

L 80-88

−19.5

PORT

W 76-66

+4.5

MTST

L 74-82

−5.5

WEB

W 88-65

+15.5

UNCA

W 80-59

+17.5

UCR

W 92-78

−0.5

DEN

W 92-88

−7.5

covered 5didn’t cover 8avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SMC

L 58-84

+0.5

ARMY

W 83-76

+7.5

WSU

L 71-81

−5.5

W 80-61

−9.5

SEMO

W 84-72

+3.5

UNCO

W 73-72

−12.5

CSUF

L 80-88

+5.5

PORT

W 76-66

−13.5

MTST

L 74-82

+8.5

WEB

W 88-65

−1.5

UNCA

W 80-59

−9.5

UCR

W 92-78

+17.5

DEN

W 92-88

+16.5

over 7under 6avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

South Dakota @ St Thomas

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

South Dakota

St Thomas

South Dakota

St Thomas