St. Thomas Tommies at Montana State Bobcats: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 3, 9:00 PM ETWorthington Arena · at Montana St

#212STMNSt Thomas74final

Final

#162MTSTMontana St82▲ winner

Closing lineMTST -2.5✓ MTST covered by 5.5

Closing total147.5Over by 8.5

Season records: St Thomas and Montana St
STMN	This season	MTST
5-3	Record	1-5
3-5	ATS	5-1
4-4	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: STMN 73–76 MTST · ✓ MTST (62%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
STMN	37	37	74
MTST	40	42	82

1st half: STMN 37, MTST 40 (MTST by 3). The model had MTST by 1.9 and a total of 69.6 (actual 77).

Team stats

STMN		MTST
27-52 52%	Field goals	24-56 43%
9-30 30%	3-pointers	12-32 38%
11-16 69%	Free throws	22-29 76%
33 5 off	Rebounds	32 10 off
15	Assists	12
6	Steals	10
2	Blocks	0
14	Turnovers	7
21	Fouls	17
34	Points in paint	20
6	Fast-break points	9

Players

STMN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nick Janowski G	36	22	11	2	8-15	4-9
Carter Bjerke F	30	6	2	1	2-3	2-3
Ben Oosterbaan F	30	9	6	1	4-8	1-5
Nolan Minessale G	28	13	3	4	5-9	0-3
Austin Herro G	24	10	4	3	3-3	0-0
Bench
Jermaine Coleman F	15	3	1	2	1-6	1-5
Ryan Dufault G	11	4	1	1	2-2	0-0
Hayden Tibbits G	10	1	2	0	0-2	0-2
Kyle Counts F	6	3	1	0	1-1	1-1
Tim Franks G	6	3	1	1	1-3	0-2
Ryan Lafferty G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Isaiah Johnson-Arigu, Jack Tauer, Luka Momcilovic, Tommy Humphries Jr., Adam Tauer

MTST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jed Miller G	37	18	3	3	5-9	4-8
Patrick McMahon G	34	24	7	5	7-17	0-3
Jeremiah Davis G	29	7	4	2	2-6	1-4
Davian Brown G	28	12	4	0	3-9	3-7
Chris Hodges F	21	1	2	1	0-1	0-0
Bench
Seth Amunrud G	23	16	1	1	6-11	4-8
Waka Mbatch F	15	4	1	0	1-1	0-0
Jaden Steppe F	8	0	4	0	0-1	0-1
Howie Keene G	5	0	1	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: James Steward, Christian King, Cavin Holden, CJ Purdie, Grayson Gaddis, Calum Rutherfurd

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MTST -2.5	MTST -3.4	MTST +0.9	W MTST covered
Total	147.5	148.7	Over 1.2	W Over
Projected score	—	STMN 72.6 · MTST 76

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MTST -1.9	MTST -3.0
1H total	69.6	77
1H projected score	STMN 33.9 · MTST 35.8	STMN 37 · MTST 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STMN WWLLW	3-5	38%	2-2	0-2
MTST LWWWW	5-1	83%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: STMN away, as underdog; MTST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
STMN UOUOU	4-4	50%	5-3
MTST OUUOO	4-2	67%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STMNlast 8	5-3 63%	3-5 38%	4-4 50%
MTSTlast 6	1-5 17%	5-1 83%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

STMN 0–2 MTSTMTST leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · MTST has won the last 2 meetings · STMN 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 8, 2022-23	STMN 65 @ MTST 82	MTST -7.5	MTST W
Dec 11, 2021-22	MTST 72 @ STMN 65	STMN +6.5	MTST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

St Thomas

8 games played

Straight up

5-3

63% wins

Against the spread

3-5

38% covers · avg −4.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-4

50% overs · avg −3 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-363%

L W L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-538%

L L L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-450%

O O U U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SMC	L 58-84	+13.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 8	vsARMY	W 83-76	-18.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 10	@WSU	L 71-81	+2.5	L −7.5	157.5	U 152
Nov 13	vsGB	W 80-61	-13.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 15	@SEMO	W 84-72	-2.5	W +9.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 21	vsUNCO	W 73-72	-4.5	L −3.5	157.5	U 145
Nov 22	vsCSUF	L 80-88	-11.5	L −19.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 23	@PORT	W 76-66	-5.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SMC

L 58-84

−12.5

ARMY

W 83-76

−11.5

WSU

L 71-81

−7.5

W 80-61

+5.5

SEMO

W 84-72

+9.5

UNCO

W 73-72

−3.5

CSUF

L 80-88

−19.5

PORT

W 76-66

+4.5

covered 3didn’t cover 5avg −4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SMC

L 58-84

+0.5

ARMY

W 83-76

+7.5

WSU

L 71-81

−5.5

W 80-61

−9.5

SEMO

W 84-72

+3.5

UNCO

W 73-72

−12.5

CSUF

L 80-88

+5.5

PORT

W 76-66

−13.5

over 4under 4avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Montana St

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

5-1

83% covers · avg +5.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +1.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-183%

W L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@COLO	L 78-84	+11.5	W +5.5	148.5	O 162
Nov 9	vsDEN	L 73-75	-7.5	L −9.5	146.5	O 148
Nov 12	@STAN	L 68-77	+14.5	W +5.5	148.5	U 145
Nov 15	@BOIS	L 58-62	+16.5	W +12.5	147.5	U 120
Nov 21	@LBSU	W 78-72	-3.5	W +2.5	140.5	O 150
Nov 29	@USU	L 81-84	+17.5	W +14.5	148.5	O 165

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

COLO

L 78-84

+5.5

DEN

L 73-75

−9.5

STAN

L 68-77

+5.5

BOIS

L 58-62

+12.5

LBSU

W 78-72

+2.5

USU

L 81-84

+14.5

covered 5didn’t cover 1avg +5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

COLO

L 78-84

+13.5

DEN

L 73-75

+1.5

STAN

L 68-77

−3.5

BOIS

L 58-62

−27.5

LBSU

W 78-72

+9.5

USU

L 81-84

+16.5

over 4under 2avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

St. Thomas Tommies at Montana State Bobcats

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

St Thomas

Montana St

St Thomas

Montana St