Savage Arena · at Toledo · Conference game
Closing line
TOL -12.5✓ NIU covered by 2.5
TOL -12.5✓ NIU covered by 2.5Closing total150.5Under by 2.5
 NIU | This season | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| 7-17 | Record | 12-13 |
| 12-12 | ATS | 14-11 |
| 7-17 | O/U | 11-14 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NIU 69–82 TOL · ✓ TOL (88%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIU | 31 | 38 | 69 |
| TOL | 36 | 43 | 79 |
1st half: NIU 31, TOL 36 (TOL by 5). The model had TOL by 7.8 and a total of 70.6 (actual 67).
Team stats
| NIU | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-57 47% | Field goals | 30-63 48% |
| 5-23 22% | 3-pointers | 7-16 44% |
| 10-16 63% | Free throws | 12-14 86% |
| 32 9 off | Rebounds | 35 11 off |
| 13 | Assists | 21 |
| 4 | Steals | 5 |
| 2 | Blocks | 5 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 18 | Fouls | 17 |
| 44 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 20 |
Players
| NIU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianni Cobb G | 39 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6-14 | 1-3 |
| Makhai Valentine G | 33 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 3-9 | 2-7 |
| Taj Walters G | 31 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 4-6 | 2-3 |
| Dylan Ducommun G | 30 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1-8 | 0-6 |
| Gustav Winther F | 16 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Hassan Washington F | 28 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 8-8 | 0-0 |
| Daemar Kelly G | 22 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-3 |
| Carlos Coronado G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Max Laskey, Isaiah Stewart, Ladji Kante, Isaiah Washington, Jaylen Wharton, Lataevyon Taylor, JJ Taylor, Jao Ituka
| TOL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Wilson G | 36 | 17 | 1 | 7 | 6-13 | 2-3 |
| Sean Craig F | 34 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 5-7 | 1-2 |
| Leroy Blyden Jr. G | 32 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 4-12 | 2-5 |
| Austin Parks C | 30 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 6-12 | 0-0 |
| Mynor Strong G | 26 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 5-9 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaylan Ouwinga F | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-6 | 0-2 |
| Will James Jr. G | 14 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Kyler Vanderjagt G | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Phoenix Glassnor, Toby Nwokolo, London Praytor, Tyler Ode, Chris Riddle
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTOL -12.5
ModelTOL -13.3
Model edgeTOL +0.8
L NIU covered
Total
Market150.5
Model150.8
Model edgeOver 0.3
L Under
Projected score
NIU 68.8 · TOL 82
NIU 69 · TOL 79
Win probability
TOL 88%
1st half
Spread
TOL -7.8
TOL -5.0
Total
70.6
67 points
Projected score
NIU 31.4 · TOL 39.2
NIU 31 · TOL 36
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTOL -12.5
no move
CloseTOL -12.5
No change since the open
Total
Open149.5
▲ 1
Close150.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
NIU +650 · TOL -1000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TOL -12.5 · unchangedmodel TOL -13.5
model TOL -13.5
Opened 149.5 · closed 150.5 · moved 1 upmodel 151
model 151
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIU | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
| TOL | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
NIU 1–6 TOLTOL leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · TOL has won the last 2 meetings · NIU 2-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2025-26 | TOL 75 @ NIU 61 | NIU +7.5 | TOL W |
| Feb 1, 2024-25 | NIU 85 @ TOL 89 | TOL -13.5 | NIU W |
| Feb 27, 2023-24 | NIU 75 @ TOL 72 | TOL -16.5 | NIU W |
| Jan 23, 2023-24 | TOL 89 @ NIU 73 | NIU +5.5 | TOL W |
| Jan 14, 2022-23 | TOL 84 @ NIU 67 | NIU +12.5 | TOL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
N Illinois
24 games played
Straight up
7-17
29% wins
Against the spread
12-12
50% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-17
29% overs · avg −6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs ULM | W 102-82 | -7.5 | W +12.5 | 147.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 7 | @ WIS | L 72-97 | +28.5 | W +3.5 | 157.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 10 | @ GCU | L 59-88 | +22.5 | L −6.5 | 163.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 18 | @ UNI | L 57-70 | +19.5 | W +6.5 | 146.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 21 | @ LUC | W 76-59 | +13.5 | W +30.5 | 148.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 25 | @ APSU | L 59-77 | +6.5 | L −11.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 2 | vs LIN | L 64-99 | -3.5 | L −38.5 | 147.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 6 | @ BRAD | L 55-84 | +18.5 | L −10.5 | 146.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 13 | @ ELON | L 79-85 | +11.5 | W +5.5 | 156.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 20 | vs CMU | W 74-73 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 149.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 31 | vs BUF | L 67-81 | +6.5 | L −7.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 3 | @ KENT | L 73-77 | +16.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 6 | vsTOL | L 61-75 | +7.5 | L −6.5 | 161.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 13 | @ EMU | L 59-77 | +7.5 | L −10.5 | 141.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 17 | vs MASS | W 70-68 | +8.5 | W +10.5 | 157.5 | U 138 |
| Jan 20 | @ OHIO | L 77-80 | +11.5 | W +8.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 24 | @ BALL | L 53-58 | +5.5 | W +0.5 | 141.5 | U 111 |
| Jan 27 | vs WMU | W 85-65 | -1.5 | W +18.5 | 146.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 31 | @ M-OH | L 61-85 | +16.5 | L −7.5 | 158.5 | U 146 |
| Feb 7 | @ GAST | W 75-74 | +4.5 | W +5.5 | 143.5 | O 149 |
| Feb 11 | vs BGSU | L 52-68 | +7.5 | L −8.5 | 144.5 | U 120 |
| Feb 14 | @CMU | L 46-88 | +4.5 | L −37.5 | 146.5 | U 134 |
| Feb 17 | @BUF | W 72-70 | +9.5 | W +11.5 | 145.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 21 | vsOHIO | L 66-74 | +6.5 | L −1.5 | 148.5 | U 140 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsULM
ULMW 102-82
+12.5
7
@WIS
WISL 72-97
+3.5
10
@GCU
GCUL 59-88
−6.5
18
@UNI
UNIL 57-70
+6.5
21
@LUC
LUCW 76-59
+30.5
25
@APSU
APSUL 59-77
−11.5
2
vsLIN
LINL 64-99
−38.5
6
@BRAD
BRADL 55-84
−10.5
13
@ELON
ELONL 79-85
+5.5
20
vsCMU
CMUW 74-73
−1.5
31
vsBUF
BUFL 67-81
−7.5
3
@KENT
KENTL 73-77
+12.5
6
vsTOL
TOLL 61-75
−6.5
13
@EMU
EMUL 59-77
−10.5
17
vsMASS
MASSW 70-68
+10.5
20
@OHIO
OHIOL 77-80
+8.5
24
@BALL
BALLL 53-58
+0.5
27
vsWMU
WMUW 85-65
+18.5
31
@M-OH
M-OHL 61-85
−7.5
7
@GAST
GASTW 75-74
+5.5
11
vsBGSU
BGSUL 52-68
−8.5
14
@CMU
CMUL 46-88
−37.5
17
@BUF
BUFW 72-70
+11.5
21
vsOHIO
OHIOL 66-74
−1.5
covered 12didn’t cover 12avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsULM
ULMW 102-82
+36.5
7
@WIS
WISL 72-97
+11.5
10
@GCU
GCUL 59-88
−16.5
18
@UNI
UNIL 57-70
−19.5
21
@LUC
LUCW 76-59
−13.5
25
@APSU
APSUL 59-77
−11.5
2
vsLIN
LINL 64-99
+15.5
6
@BRAD
BRADL 55-84
−7.5
13
@ELON
ELONL 79-85
+7.5
20
vsCMU
CMUW 74-73
−2.5
31
vsBUF
BUFL 67-81
−4.5
3
@KENT
KENTL 73-77
−7.5
6
vsTOL
TOLL 61-75
−25.5
13
@EMU
EMUL 59-77
−5.5
17
vsMASS
MASSW 70-68
−19.5
20
@OHIO
OHIOL 77-80
+2.5
24
@BALL
BALLL 53-58
−30.5
27
vsWMU
WMUW 85-65
+3.5
31
@M-OH
M-OHL 61-85
−12.5
7
@GAST
GASTW 75-74
+5.5
11
vsBGSU
BGSUL 52-68
−24.5
14
@CMU
CMUL 46-88
−12.5
17
@BUF
BUFW 72-70
−3.5
21
vsOHIO
OHIOL 66-74
−8.5
over 7under 17avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Toledo
25 games played
Straight up
12-13
48% wins
Against the spread
14-11
56% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-14
44% overs · avg −0 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USA | L 74-76 | -2.5 | L −4.5 | 150.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 8 | vs MRSH | L 73-85 | -2.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 11 | @ WRST | W 81-71 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 159.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 15 | vs DETM | W 90-83 | -10.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 19 | vs YSU | W 92-75 | -1.5 | W +15.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 24 | vs TROY | W 75-68 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs BEL | L 72-87 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 163.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 6 | @ OAK | L 97-98 | +4.5 | W +3.5 | 166.5 | O 195 |
| Dec 13 | @ RMU | L 70-75 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 16 | @ MSU | L 69-92 | +23.5 | W +0.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 30 | vsWMU | W 84-79 | -10.5 | L −5.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 3 | @CMU | W 78-75 | -7.5 | L −4.5 | 158.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 6 | @NIU | W 75-61 | -7.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 9 | vsM-OH | L 73-87 | -1.5 | L −15.5 | 166.5 | U 160 |
| Jan 13 | vsOHIO | W 101-85 | -2.5 | W +13.5 | 161.5 | O 186 |
| Jan 16 | @KENT | L 84-87 | +5.5 | W +2.5 | 168.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 20 | @MASS | L 82-84 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 164.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 24 | vsBGSU | W 73-72 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 27 | @ AKR | L 81-91 | +12.5 | W +2.5 | 168.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 31 | vsBALL | W 73-55 | -8.5 | W +9.5 | 146.5 | U 128 |
| Feb 3 | vsKENT | L 72-75 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 161.5 | U 147 |
| Feb 7 | @ JMU | L 71-73 | -1.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | U 144 |
| Feb 11 | @WMU | W 90-79 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 154.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 14 | @BGSU | L 70-80 | +3.5 | L −6.5 | 150.5 | U 150 |
| Feb 21 | vsEMU | W 94-75 | -8.5 | W +10.5 | 145.5 | O 169 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−4.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−14.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
+15.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
−3.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+15.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
+9.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−10.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+3.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−6.5
16
@MSU
MSUL 69-92
+0.5
30
vsWMU
WMUW 84-79
−5.5
3
@CMU
CMUW 78-75
−4.5
6
@NIU
NIUW 75-61
+6.5
9
vsM-OH
M-OHL 73-87
−15.5
13
vsOHIO
OHIOW 101-85
+13.5
16
@KENT
KENTL 84-87
+2.5
20
@MASS
MASSL 82-84
+0.5
24
vsBGSU
BGSUW 73-72
+2.5
27
@AKR
AKRL 81-91
+2.5
31
vsBALL
BALLW 73-55
+9.5
3
vsKENT
KENTL 72-75
−1.5
7
@JMU
JMUL 71-73
−3.5
11
@WMU
WMUW 90-79
+4.5
14
@BGSU
BGSUL 70-80
−6.5
21
vsEMU
EMUW 94-75
+10.5
covered 14didn’t cover 11avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−0.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−2.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
−7.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
+13.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+6.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
−16.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−4.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+28.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−9.5
16
@MSU
MSUL 69-92
+10.5
30
vsWMU
WMUW 84-79
+2.5
3
@CMU
CMUW 78-75
−5.5
6
@NIU
NIUW 75-61
−25.5
9
vsM-OH
M-OHL 73-87
−6.5
13
vsOHIO
OHIOW 101-85
+24.5
16
@KENT
KENTL 84-87
+2.5
20
@MASS
MASSL 82-84
+1.5
24
vsBGSU
BGSUW 73-72
−10.5
27
@AKR
AKRL 81-91
+3.5
31
vsBALL
BALLW 73-55
−18.5
3
vsKENT
KENTL 72-75
−14.5
7
@JMU
JMUL 71-73
−9.5
11
@WMU
WMUW 90-79
+14.5
14
@BGSU
BGSUL 70-80
−0.5
21
vsEMU
EMUW 94-75
+23.5
over 11under 14avg −0 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
N Illinois
7-17 overall · 4-10 in conference · Horizon League
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Ohio66–74
- W@ Buffalo72–70
- L@ C Michigan46–88
- Lvs Bowling Green52–68
- W@ Georgia St75–74
3 days since their last game.
Toledo
12-13 overall · 8-6 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs E Michigan94–75
- L@ Bowling Green70–80
- W@ W Michigan90–79
- L@ James Madison71–73
- Lvs Kent State72–75
3 days since their last game.