American University Eagles at George Washington Revolutionaries: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 9, 12:00 AM ETCharles E. Smith Center · at G Washington

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: American and G Washington
AMER	This season	GW
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GW 78–68 · win probability GW 81%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GW has more of the edges

AMER 2, GW 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

AMER has played the 263rd-hardest schedule, GW the 95th. A record against a soft schedule means less

GWBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: AMER 26.9%, GW 35.8%. Defensive: AMER 70.6%, GW 71.3%

AMERBig

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: AMER 96%, GW 13%. Transfers in: AMER 0, GW 9. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

GWBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: AMER 28.7, GW 34.9. Allowed: AMER 42.1, GW 35.0

GWBig

Three-pointers

AMER hits 33.0% and allows 35.5%; GW hits 35.1% and allows 33.9%. Threes are 46.5% and 47.0% of their shots

AMERBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: AMER 15.6%, GW 18.1%. Forced: AMER 19.2%, GW 17.8%

GWSmall

AMER offense vs GW defense

Offense 201st of 366 against a defense 95th, on the model’s ratings

GWSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: AMER 51.5 and allows 54.4; GW 54.4 and allows 52.4

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: AMER plays 66.7 a game (289th fastest), GW 70.2 (107th). Faster games mean more points

GWSmall

Home court

GW at home. This season: GW 0-0 at home, AMER 0-0 away

Even

GW offense vs AMER defense

Offense 112th of 366 against a defense 122nd, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	GW -10.2	—
Total	—	145.6	—
Projected score	—	AMER 67.7 · GW 77.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GW -5.9	—
1H total	68.1	—
1H projected score	AMER 31.1 · GW 37	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AMER WWLLL	16-14	53%	8-7	—
GW LLLWL	15-19	44%	8-7	—

Venue/role: AMER away; GW home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
AMER UUOUO	15-15	50%	14-16
GW UUOOU	16-18	47%	18-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AMER	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
GW	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

American

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	@ UMES	W78–60WO

G Washington

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	@ BC	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

AMER 2–1 GWAMER leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · AMER 2-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 12, 2025-26	AMER 67 @ GW 107	GW -17.5	GW W
Dec 4, 2024-25	GW 71 @ AMER 81	AMER +4.5	AMER W
Dec 10, 2022-23	AMER 69 @ GW 64	GW -5.5	AMER W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

American

30 games played

Straight up

14-16

47% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1647%

L W L L W L W W W L L W W L L W W W W L L L L L W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1453%

W W L W W L W L W L L W W W L W W W W L L L L L W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1550%

O O O O O U O O O O U U U U O U U U O U U U O O U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WAKE	L 74-88	+19.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 162
Nov 9	vsPENN	W 84-78	+1.5	W +7.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 12	@GW	L 67-107	+17.5	L −22.5	151.5	O 174
Nov 18	@RUTG	L 71-80	+16.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 151
Nov 28	vsME	W 74-61	-7.5	W +5.5	133.5	O 135
Nov 29	vsSIE	L 55-59	+2.5	L −1.5	137.5	U 114
Nov 30	vsLONG	W 92-66	-5.5	W +20.5	148.5	O 158
Dec 3	vsDREX	W 75-73	-4.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 148
Dec 6	vsUMES	W 78-60	-10.5	W +7.5	130.5	O 138
Dec 18	@VCU	L 83-105	+19.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 188
Dec 22	@UVA	L 51-95	+27.5	L −16.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 31	vsL-MD	W 84-69	-8.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 153
Jan 3	@BU	W 64-62	+1.5	W +3.5	142.5	U 126
Jan 7	@COLG	L 62-64	+5.5	W +3.5	148.5	U 126
Jan 10	vsHC	L 73-84	-8.5	L −19.5	137.5	O 157
Jan 12	vsNAVY	W 65-51	+2.5	W +16.5	139.5	U 116
Jan 18	@ARMY	W 78-67	-4.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 21	vsCOLG	W 70-66	-1.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 136
Jan 24	@HC	W 76-67	-4.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 28	@L-MD	L 68-77	-4.5	L −13.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 31	vsLAF	L 65-67	-5.5	L −7.5	142.5	U 132
Feb 4	vsBUCK	L 59-60	-7.5	L −8.5	141.5	U 119
Feb 7	@NAVY	L 73-82	+4.5	L −4.5	134.5	O 155
Feb 11	@LEH	L 82-90	-1.5	L −9.5	140.5	O 172
Feb 14	vsARMY	W 75-63	-9.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 18	@BUCK	W 75-57	-3.5	W +14.5	140.5	U 132
Feb 22	@LAF	W 75-61	-3.5	W +10.5	141.5	U 136
Feb 25	vsLEH	L 73-78	-7.5	L −12.5	140.5	O 151
Feb 28	vsBU	L 65-68	-3.5	L −6.5	140.5	U 133
Mar 5	@BU	L 73-75	+1.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+5.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

−22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

W 74-61

+5.5

SIE

L 55-59

−1.5

LONG

W 92-66

+20.5

DREX

W 75-73

−2.5

UMES

W 78-60

+7.5

VCU

L 83-105

−2.5

UVA

L 51-95

−16.5

L-MD

W 84-69

+6.5

W 64-62

+3.5

COLG

L 62-64

+3.5

L 73-84

−19.5

NAVY

W 65-51

+16.5

ARMY

W 78-67

+6.5

COLG

W 70-66

+2.5

W 76-67

+4.5

L-MD

L 68-77

−13.5

LAF

L 65-67

−7.5

BUCK

L 59-60

−8.5

NAVY

L 73-82

−4.5

LEH

L 82-90

−9.5

ARMY

W 75-63

+2.5

BUCK

W 75-57

+14.5

LAF

W 75-61

+10.5

LEH

L 73-78

−12.5

L 65-68

−6.5

L 73-75

−0.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+22.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

+22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

W 74-61

+1.5

SIE

L 55-59

−23.5

LONG

W 92-66

+9.5

DREX

W 75-73

+10.5

UMES

W 78-60

+7.5

VCU

L 83-105

+33.5

UVA

L 51-95

−7.5

L-MD

W 84-69

−1.5

W 64-62

−16.5

COLG

L 62-64

−22.5

L 73-84

+19.5

NAVY

W 65-51

−23.5

ARMY

W 78-67

−2.5

COLG

W 70-66

−10.5

W 76-67

+3.5

L-MD

L 68-77

−2.5

LAF

L 65-67

−10.5

BUCK

L 59-60

−22.5

NAVY

L 73-82

+20.5

LEH

L 82-90

+31.5

ARMY

W 75-63

−6.5

BUCK

W 75-57

−8.5

LAF

W 75-61

−5.5

LEH

L 73-78

+10.5

L 65-68

−7.5

L 73-75

+6.5

over 15under 15avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

G Washington

34 games played

Straight up

18-16

53% wins

Against the spread

15-19

44% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-18

47% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1653%

W W W W W L W L W W L L W W L W L L W L L L L W W L W L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1944%

L W W W W L W L L L L W W W L W L L W W L L L L W L W L W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1847%

U O O O U O O O U O U U O U U O O U U U U U O U U O O U O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsME	W 67-47	-20.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 114
Nov 8	vsUSF	W 99-95	+1.5	W +5.5	159.5	O 194
Nov 12	vsAMER	W 107-67	-17.5	W +22.5	151.5	O 174
Nov 15	vsODU	W 96-73	-15.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 169
Nov 19	vsUMBC	W 89-52	-22.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 141
Nov 23	vsMCN	L 86-92	-5.5	L −11.5	157.5	O 178
Nov 24	vsMTSU	W 92-79	-9.5	W +3.5	158.5	O 171
Nov 25	vsMUR	L 95-96	-7.5	L −8.5	167.5	O 191
Dec 2	@ARMY	W 84-70	-19.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 154
Dec 6	vsW&M	W 99-86	-13.5	L −0.5	174.5	O 185
Dec 10	vsDEL	L 58-70	-21.5	L −33.5	152.5	U 128
Dec 13	vsFLA	L 70-80	+14.5	W +4.5	162.5	U 150
Dec 31	@RICH	W 99-85	-2.5	W +11.5	162.5	O 184
Jan 3	vsLAS	W 77-55	-16.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 132
Jan 6	@DAY	L 72-79	+2.5	L −4.5	154.5	U 151
Jan 10	vsLUC	W 101-66	-14.5	W +20.5	154.5	O 167
Jan 14	vsDAV	L 79-84	-9.5	L −14.5	150.5	O 163
Jan 19	@GMU	L 64-69	+1.5	L −3.5	153.5	U 133
Jan 24	vsRICH	W 85-69	-10.5	W +5.5	159.5	U 154
Jan 27	@SLU	L 76-79	+10.5	W +7.5	167.5	U 155
Jan 31	vsFOR	L 65-79	-11.5	L −25.5	150.5	U 144
Feb 4	@JOES	L 73-76	-1.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 149
Feb 7	@DUQ	L 86-88	-1.5	L −3.5	158.5	O 174
Feb 10	vsURI	W 75-70	-5.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 145
Feb 13	vsGMU	W 72-53	-3.5	W +15.5	149.5	U 125
Feb 17	@VCU	L 75-89	+6.5	L −7.5	161.5	O 164
Feb 24	@LAS	W 104-77	-8.5	W +18.5	146.5	O 181
Feb 27	vsDAY	L 66-68	-2.5	L −4.5	152.5	U 134
Mar 4	vsSBU	W 91-82	-7.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 173
Mar 7	@LUC	L 62-68	-9.5	L −15.5	148.5	U 130
Mar 12	vsFOR	W 66-62	-7.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 128
Mar 13	vsSLU	L 81-88	+6.5	L −0.5	158.5	O 169
Mar 18	@UVU	W 79-78	+1.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 157
Mar 22	@UNM	L 61-86	+6.5	L −18.5	161.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 67-47

−0.5

USF

W 99-95

+5.5

AMER

W 107-67

+22.5

ODU

W 96-73

+7.5

UMBC

W 89-52

+14.5

MCN

L 86-92

−11.5

MTSU

W 92-79

+3.5

MUR

L 95-96

−8.5

ARMY

W 84-70

−5.5

W&M

W 99-86

−0.5

DEL

L 58-70

−33.5

FLA

L 70-80

+4.5

RICH

W 99-85

+11.5

LAS

W 77-55

+5.5

DAY

L 72-79

−4.5

LUC

W 101-66

+20.5

DAV

L 79-84

−14.5

GMU

L 64-69

−3.5

RICH

W 85-69

+5.5

SLU

L 76-79

+7.5

FOR

L 65-79

−25.5

JOES

L 73-76

−4.5

DUQ

L 86-88

−3.5

URI

W 75-70

−0.5

GMU

W 72-53

+15.5

VCU

L 75-89

−7.5

LAS

W 104-77

+18.5

DAY

L 66-68

−4.5

SBU

W 91-82

+1.5

LUC

L 62-68

−15.5

FOR

W 66-62

−3.5

SLU

L 81-88

−0.5

UVU

W 79-78

+2.5

UNM

L 61-86

−18.5

covered 15didn’t cover 19avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 67-47

−29.5

USF

W 99-95

+34.5

AMER

W 107-67

+22.5

ODU

W 96-73

+13.5

UMBC

W 89-52

−19.5

MCN

L 86-92

+20.5

MTSU

W 92-79

+12.5

MUR

L 95-96

+23.5

ARMY

W 84-70

−2.5

W&M

W 99-86

+10.5

DEL

L 58-70

−24.5

FLA

L 70-80

−12.5

RICH

W 99-85

+21.5

LAS

W 77-55

−18.5

DAY

L 72-79

−3.5

LUC

W 101-66

+12.5

DAV

L 79-84

+12.5

GMU

L 64-69

−20.5

RICH

W 85-69

−5.5

SLU

L 76-79

−12.5

FOR

L 65-79

−6.5

JOES

L 73-76

−6.5

DUQ

L 86-88

+15.5

URI

W 75-70

−6.5

GMU

W 72-53

−24.5

VCU

L 75-89

+2.5

LAS

W 104-77

+34.5

DAY

L 66-68

−18.5

SBU

W 91-82

+15.5

LUC

L 62-68

−18.5

FOR

W 66-62

−16.5

SLU

L 81-88

+10.5

UVU

W 79-78

+4.5

UNM

L 61-86

−14.5

over 16under 18avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

G Washington has the better starters

Position by position: American 1, G Washington 2, even 2

AmericanBetterG Washington

G W. Nausadis7.5 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 25

GWSmall

G A. Phillips TR13.8 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 50

G M. Collins13.2 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 97

AMERBig

G O. Witherspoon TR7.5 pts · 3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 34

F G. Jones12.4 pts · 4.9 reb · 2 ast Score 55

GWSmall

G J. Aranguren8.1 pts · 4.1 reb · 3.2 ast Score 70

F M. Mayock8.4 pts · 3.7 reb · 1.6 ast Score 36

Even

G F. Kossaras TR4.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 37

F J. Iturbe10.4 pts · 4.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 55

Even

F A. Shaw TR4.5 pts · 6.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 48

AmericanBetterG Washington

AMER offense201st of 366 · -6.3

GWSmall

GW defense95th of 366 · -0.5

AMER defense122nd of 366 · -2.1

Even

GW offense112th of 366 · -1.9

Backcourt+1.4 · 2 players

AMERBig

Backcourt-2.8 · 4 players

Frontcourt-1.4 · 3 players

GWSmall

Frontcourt-0.4 · 1 player

Bench-2.4 · 5 players

GWSmall

Bench-0.5 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestAMER betterGW betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

American

Guards

W. Nausadis23 minM. Collins22 minK. Sebastian22 minD. Hogans6 minJ. Anderson2 minM. Casey1 min

Forwards

G. Jones31 minM. Mayock29 minJ. Iturbe26 minC. McDonald18 minC. Eagan11 minN. JonesNew

G Washington

Guards

A. Phillips34 min · TRO. Witherspoon28 min · TRJ. Aranguren24 minF. Kossaras16 min · TRT. Arceneaux16 min · TRA. Arrington1 min

Forwards

A. Shaw26 min · TRA. Vukovic15 min · TRD. James15 min · TRM. Arrington14 min · TRR. Frost7 min · TRL. UrbihaNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

AMER72.0 #242

GW80.9 #46

Points per possession

AMER1.08 #190

GW1.15 #63

Pace (possessions)

AMER66.7 #289

GW70.2 #107

Shooting

Effective FG%

AMER51.5 #169

GW54.4 #55

3-point %

AMER33.0 #235

GW35.1 #106

3-point attempt rate

AMER46.5 #39

GW47.0 #33

Free throw rate

AMER28.7 #335

GW34.9 #184

Possessions

Turnover rate

AMER15.6 #110

GW18.1 #276

Offensive rebound rate

AMER26.9 #299

GW35.8 #26

Assists per game

AMER12.5 #248

GW15.4 #69

Defense

Points allowed

AMER72.7 #124

GW75.2 #195

Points allowed per possession

AMER1.09 #200

GW1.08 #149

Opponent effective FG%

AMER54.4 #313

GW52.4 #234

Opponent 3-point %

AMER35.5 #283

GW33.9 #175

Turnovers forced

AMER19.2 #40

GW17.8 #110

Defensive rebound rate

AMER70.6 #127

GW71.3 #91

Steals per game

AMER7.3 #100

GW7.2 #103

Blocks per game

AMER1.4 #363

GW3.5 #142

AMER		GW
Scoring
72.0 #242	Points per game	80.9 #46
1.08 #190	Points per possession	1.15 #63
66.7 #289	Pace (possessions)	70.2 #107
Shooting
51.5 #169	Effective FG%	54.4 #55
33.0 #235	3-point %	35.1 #106
46.5 #39	3-point attempt rate	47.0 #33
28.7 #335	Free throw rate	34.9 #184
Possessions
15.6 #110	Turnover rate	18.1 #276
26.9 #299	Offensive rebound rate	35.8 #26
12.5 #248	Assists per game	15.4 #69
Defense
72.7 #124	Points allowed	75.2 #195
1.09 #200	Points allowed per possession	1.08 #149
54.4 #313	Opponent effective FG%	52.4 #234
35.5 #283	Opponent 3-point %	33.9 #175
19.2 #40	Turnovers forced	17.8 #110
70.6 #127	Defensive rebound rate	71.3 #91
7.3 #100	Steals per game	7.2 #103
1.4 #363	Blocks per game	3.5 #142

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

American

14-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Boston U73–75
Lvs Boston U65–68
Lvs Lehigh73–78
W@ Lafayette75–61
W@ Bucknell75–57

A week or more of rest.

G Washington

18-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ New Mexico61–86
W@ Utah Valley79–78
Lvs Saint Louis81–88
Wvs Fordham66–62
L@ Loyola Chicago62–68

A week or more of rest.

American University Eagles at George Washington Revolutionaries

What could decide it: GW has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

American

G Washington

G Washington has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

American

G Washington