UD Arena · at Dayton · Conference game
Closing line
DAY -2.5✓ DAY covered by 4.5
DAY -2.5✓ DAY covered by 4.5Closing total154.5Under by 3.5
 GW | This season | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| 10-4 | Record | 11-4 |
| 8-6 | ATS | 6-9 |
| 8-6 | O/U | 6-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: GW 77–79 DAY · ✓ DAY (58%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GW | 35 | 37 | 72 |
| DAY | 30 | 49 | 79 |
1st half: GW 35, DAY 30 (GW by 5). The model had DAY by 1.2 and a total of 72.7 (actual 65).
Team stats
| GW | DAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-52 48% | Field goals | 23-55 42% |
| 10-28 36% | 3-pointers | 6-20 30% |
| 12-20 60% | Free throws | 27-30 90% |
| 35 14 off | Rebounds | 28 11 off |
| 9 | Assists | 17 |
| 6 | Steals | 14 |
| 3 | Blocks | 0 |
| 22 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 25 | Fouls | 16 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 17 |
Players
| GW | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Castro F | 30 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Christian Jones G | 26 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 3-8 | 1-4 |
| Trey Autry G | 25 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1-9 | 1-8 |
| Bubu Benjamin G | 19 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Jean Aranguren G | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tre Dinkins G | 33 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 8-12 | 5-8 |
| Tyrone Marshall Jr. F | 27 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4-5 | 1-1 |
| Garrett Johnson F | 23 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 5-11 | 2-6 |
| Luke Hunger F | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jalen Rougier-Roane, Mohamed Binzagr, Trey Moss, Amir Arrington, Ty Bevins, Vincent Chaudhri
| DAY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javon Bennett G | 38 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 4-20 | 3-9 |
| Keonte Jones G | 34 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 5-6 | 1-1 |
| De'Shayne Montgomery G | 33 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5-12 | 0-4 |
| Jordan Derkack G | 27 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 3-6 | 2-3 |
| Jacob Conner F | 19 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaiun Simon F | 30 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Bryce Heard G | 16 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Sean Pouedet G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Malcolm Thomas, Adam Njie, Amal L'Etang, Damon Friery, Jaron McKie, Makai Grant, Will Maxwell, Evan Dickey
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenDAY -3.5
1 → GW
CloseDAY -2.5
1 pt toward GW
Total
Open154.5
no move
Close154.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
GW +120 · DAY -142
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened DAY -3.5 · closed DAY -2.5 · moved 1 toward GWmodel DAY -2.5 matches the line
model DAY -2.5 = line ✓
Opened 154.5 · unchangedmodel 155
model 155
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | DAY -2.5 | DAY -2.3 | GW +0.2 | L DAY covered |
| Total | 154.5 | 155.2 | Over 0.7 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | GW 76.5 · DAY 78.7 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | DAY -1.2 | GW -5.0 |
| 1H total | 72.7 | 65 |
| 1H projected score | GW 35.7 · DAY 37 | GW 35 · DAY 30 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GW | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| DAY | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
GW 2–3 DAYDAY leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · GW 2-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2024-25 | DAY 62 @ GW 82 | GW +9.5 | GW W |
| Jan 30, 2023-24 | GW 61 @ DAY 83 | DAY -12.5 | DAY W |
| Jan 21, 2022-23 | DAY 69 @ GW 76 | GW +8.5 | GW W |
| Feb 12, 2021-22 | GW 54 @ DAY 80 | DAY -15.5 | DAY W |
| Jan 8, 2021-22 | DAY 83 @ GW 58 | GW +8 | DAY W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
G Washington
14 games played
Straight up
10-4
71% wins
Against the spread
8-6
57% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-6
57% overs · avg +3.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs ME | W 67-47 | -20.5 | L −0.5 | 143.5 | U 114 |
| Nov 8 | vs USF | W 99-95 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 159.5 | O 194 |
| Nov 12 | vs AMER | W 107-67 | -17.5 | W +22.5 | 151.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 15 | vs ODU | W 96-73 | -15.5 | W +7.5 | 155.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 19 | vs UMBC | W 89-52 | -22.5 | W +14.5 | 160.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 23 | vs MCN | L 86-92 | -5.5 | L −11.5 | 157.5 | O 178 |
| Nov 24 | vs MTSU | W 92-79 | -9.5 | W +3.5 | 158.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 25 | vs MUR | L 95-96 | -7.5 | L −8.5 | 167.5 | O 191 |
| Dec 2 | @ ARMY | W 84-70 | -19.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | U 154 |
| Dec 6 | vs W&M | W 99-86 | -13.5 | L −0.5 | 174.5 | O 185 |
| Dec 10 | vs DEL | L 58-70 | -21.5 | L −33.5 | 152.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 13 | vs FLA | L 70-80 | +14.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 31 | @ RICH | W 99-85 | -2.5 | W +11.5 | 162.5 | O 184 |
| Jan 3 | vs LAS | W 77-55 | -16.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | U 132 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsME
MEW 67-47
−0.5
8
vsUSF
USFW 99-95
+5.5
12
vsAMER
AMERW 107-67
+22.5
15
vsODU
ODUW 96-73
+7.5
19
vsUMBC
UMBCW 89-52
+14.5
23
vsMCN
MCNL 86-92
−11.5
24
vsMTSU
MTSUW 92-79
+3.5
25
vsMUR
MURL 95-96
−8.5
2
@ARMY
ARMYW 84-70
−5.5
6
vsW&M
W&MW 99-86
−0.5
10
vsDEL
DELL 58-70
−33.5
13
vsFLA
FLAL 70-80
+4.5
31
@RICH
RICHW 99-85
+11.5
3
vsLAS
LASW 77-55
+5.5
covered 8didn’t cover 6avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsME
MEW 67-47
−29.5
8
vsUSF
USFW 99-95
+34.5
12
vsAMER
AMERW 107-67
+22.5
15
vsODU
ODUW 96-73
+13.5
19
vsUMBC
UMBCW 89-52
−19.5
23
vsMCN
MCNL 86-92
+20.5
24
vsMTSU
MTSUW 92-79
+12.5
25
vsMUR
MURL 95-96
+23.5
2
@ARMY
ARMYW 84-70
−2.5
6
vsW&M
W&MW 99-86
+10.5
10
vsDEL
DELL 58-70
−24.5
13
vsFLA
FLAL 70-80
−12.5
31
@RICH
RICHW 99-85
+21.5
3
vsLAS
LASW 77-55
−18.5
over 8under 6avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Dayton
15 games played
Straight up
11-4
73% wins
Against the spread
6-9
40% covers · avg −1.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-9
40% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CAN | W 88-48 | -25.5 | W +14.5 | 142.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 8 | vsUMBC | W 77-71 | -25.5 | L −19.5 | 154.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 11 | @ CIN | L 62-74 | +5.5 | L −6.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 15 | vs BCU | W 91-82 | -21.5 | L −12.5 | 148.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 19 | @ MARQ | W 77-71 | +6.5 | W +12.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 22 | vs NCCU | W 74-55 | -29.5 | L −10.5 | 146.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 27 | vs GTWN | W 84-79 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 28 | vs BYU | L 79-83 | +9.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 2 | vs ETSU | W 88-71 | -11.5 | W +5.5 | 140.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | vs UVA | L 73-86 | +5.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 13 | vs UNF | W 84-61 | -30.5 | L −7.5 | 159.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 16 | vs FSU | W 97-69 | -6.5 | W +21.5 | 162.5 | O 166 |
| Dec 20 | vs LIB | L 61-64 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 142.5 | U 125 |
| Dec 31 | vs FOR | W 63-56 | -16.5 | L −9.5 | 139.5 | U 119 |
| Jan 3 | @ LUC | W 70-68 | -7.5 | L −5.5 | 140.5 | U 138 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCAN
CANW 88-48
+14.5
8
vsUMBC
UMBCW 77-71
−19.5
11
@CIN
CINL 62-74
−6.5
15
vsBCU
BCUW 91-82
−12.5
19
@MARQ
MARQW 77-71
+12.5
22
vsNCCU
NCCUW 74-55
−10.5
27
vsGTWN
GTWNW 84-79
+3.5
28
vsBYU
BYUL 79-83
+5.5
2
vsETSU
ETSUW 88-71
+5.5
6
vsUVA
UVAL 73-86
−7.5
13
vsUNF
UNFW 84-61
−7.5
16
vsFSU
FSUW 97-69
+21.5
20
vsLIB
LIBL 61-64
−12.5
31
vsFOR
FORW 63-56
−9.5
3
@LUC
LUCW 70-68
−5.5
covered 6didn’t cover 9avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCAN
CANW 88-48
−6.5
8
vsUMBC
UMBCW 77-71
−6.5
11
@CIN
CINL 62-74
−11.5
15
vsBCU
BCUW 91-82
+24.5
19
@MARQ
MARQW 77-71
−3.5
22
vsNCCU
NCCUW 74-55
−17.5
27
vsGTWN
GTWNW 84-79
+17.5
28
vsBYU
BYUL 79-83
+11.5
2
vsETSU
ETSUW 88-71
+18.5
6
vsUVA
UVAL 73-86
+11.5
13
vsUNF
UNFW 84-61
−14.5
16
vsFSU
FSUW 97-69
+3.5
20
vsLIB
LIBL 61-64
−17.5
31
vsFOR
FORW 63-56
−20.5
3
@LUC
LUCW 70-68
−2.5
over 6under 9avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
G Washington
10-4 overall · 2-0 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs La Salle77–55
- W@ Richmond99–85
- Lvs Florida70–80
- Lvs Delaware58–70
- Wvs William & Mary99–86
3 days since their last game.
Dayton
11-4 overall · 2-0 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Loyola Chicago70–68
- Wvs Fordham63–56
- Lvs Liberty61–64
- Wvs Florida St97–69
- Wvs North Florida84–61
3 days since their last game.