UCF Knights at Oklahoma State Cowboys: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Jan 6, 8:00 PM ETGallagher-Iba Arena · at Oklahoma St · Conference game

#39UCFUCF AP #2576final

Final

#45OKSTOklahoma St87▲ winner

Closing lineOKST -1.5✓ OKST covered by 9.5

Closing total175.5Under by 12.5

Season records: UCF and Oklahoma St
UCF	This season	OKST
12-1	Record	12-2
7-6	ATS	6-8
6-7	O/U	10-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UCF 86–88 OKST · ✓ OKST (56%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UCF	32	44	76
OKST	41	46	87

1st half: UCF 32, OKST 41 (OKST by 9). The model had OKST by 0.8 and a total of 81.2 (actual 73).

Team stats

UCF		OKST
27-72 38%	Field goals	25-53 47%
7-33 21%	3-pointers	10-19 53%
15-23 65%	Free throws	27-35 77%
36 13 off	Rebounds	39 5 off
15	Assists	13
8	Steals	5
3	Blocks	3
11	Turnovers	16
25	Fouls	18
34	Points in paint	26
14	Fast-break points	4

Players

UCF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Themus Fulks G	34	13	2	4	4-6	1-1
Jamichael Stillwell F	30	11	5	4	5-10	0-3
Riley Kugel G	27	15	4	4	6-14	2-6
Jordan Burks F	21	3	3	0	0-11	0-6
John Bol C	10	2	1	0	1-3	0-0
Bench
Devan Cambridge F	26	11	11	2	3-8	0-2
Carmelo Pacheco G	16	3	2	0	1-3	1-3
Chris Johnson G	16	4	1	1	2-6	0-3
Jeremy Foumena C	10	5	2	0	2-2	0-0
George Beale Jr. G	9	9	1	0	3-9	3-9
Kris Parker G	1	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Elijah Hulsewe, Poohpha Warakulnukroh, Zachary Johnson, Tanner Jones

OKST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Anthony Roy G	35	15	7	1	4-10	4-7
Parsa Fallah F	33	24	4	0	8-13	1-1
Vyctorius Miller G	30	13	6	2	2-6	2-2
Kanye Clary G	30	18	9	8	6-11	3-6
Benjamin Ahmed F	9	0	2	0	0-3	0-0
Bench
Isaiah Coleman G	30	7	7	1	1-3	0-2
Jaylen Curry G	17	6	1	0	2-4	0-1
Andrija Vukovic F	15	4	3	1	2-3	0-0
Kirk Cole G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Mekhi Ragland, Ryan Crotty, Robert Jennings II, Christian Coleman, Daniel Guetta, Lefteris Mantzoukas

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	OKST -1.5	OKST -1.6	OKST +0.1	W OKST covered
Total	175.5	173.4	Under 2.1	W Under
Projected score	—	UCF 85.9 · OKST 87.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OKST -0.8	OKST -9.0
1H total	81.2	73
1H projected score	UCF 40.2 · OKST 41	UCF 32 · OKST 41

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCF WWWLW	7-6	54%	1-0	3-1
OKST LLLWL	6-8	43%	4-6	4-6

Venue/role: UCF away, as underdog; OKST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCF UUOOU	6-7	46%	12-1
OKST UOOOO	10-4	71%	12-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCF	10-0 100%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
OKST	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	9-1 90%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UCF 4–1 OKSTUCF leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · UCF 4-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 5, 2024-25	OKST 70 @ UCF 83	UCF -6.5	UCF W
Feb 19, 2024-25	UCF 95 @ OKST 104	OKST -2.5	OKST W
Mar 12, 2023-24	OKST 62 vs UCF 77	UCF -4.5	UCF W
Feb 28, 2023-24	UCF 77 @ OKST 71	OKST -2.5	UCF W
Nov 18, 2022-23	UCF 60 vs OKST 56	OKST -6	UCF W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UCF

13 games played

Straight up

12-1

92% wins

Against the spread

7-6

54% covers · avg +4.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-7

46% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-192%

W L W W W W W W W W W W W

11 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

7-654%

L L W W L W L L W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-746%

O O U U O U O U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHOF	W 82-78	-8.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 160
Nov 8	vsVAN	L 93-105	+10.5	L −1.5	166.5	O 198
Nov 11	vsFAMU	W 97-60	-23.5	W +13.5	169.5	U 157
Nov 14	@TA&M	W 86-74	+10.5	W +22.5	172.5	U 160
Nov 17	vsOAK	W 87-83	-13.5	L −9.5	163.5	O 170
Nov 20	vsPITT	W 77-67	+1.5	W +11.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 25	vsQUIN	W 102-91	-13.5	L −2.5	162.5	O 193
Nov 29	vsVMI	W 82-57	-25.5	L −0.5	159.5	U 139
Dec 7	vsTOW	W 86-61	-9.5	W +15.5	148.5	U 147
Dec 17	vsMER	W 81-63	-16.5	W +1.5	160.5	U 144
Dec 20	vsFGCU	W 102-80	-17.5	W +4.5	161.5	O 182
Dec 23	vsFAU	W 85-80	-8.5	L −3.5	162.5	O 165
Jan 3	vsKU	W 81-75	+4.5	W +10.5	157.5	U 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOF

W 82-78

−4.5

VAN

L 93-105

−1.5

FAMU

W 97-60

+13.5

TA&M

W 86-74

+22.5

OAK

W 87-83

−9.5

PITT

W 77-67

+11.5

QUIN

W 102-91

−2.5

VMI

W 82-57

−0.5

TOW

W 86-61

+15.5

MER

W 81-63

+1.5

FGCU

W 102-80

+4.5

FAU

W 85-80

−3.5

W 81-75

+10.5

covered 7didn’t cover 6avg +4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOF

W 82-78

+19.5

VAN

L 93-105

+31.5

FAMU

W 97-60

−12.5

TA&M

W 86-74

−12.5

OAK

W 87-83

+6.5

PITT

W 77-67

−5.5

QUIN

W 102-91

+30.5

VMI

W 82-57

−20.5

TOW

W 86-61

−1.5

MER

W 81-63

−16.5

FGCU

W 102-80

+20.5

FAU

W 85-80

+2.5

W 81-75

−1.5

over 6under 7avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Oklahoma St

14 games played

Straight up

12-2

86% wins

Against the spread

6-8

43% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

10-4

71% overs · avg +4.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-286%

W W W W W W W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-843%

W W L L W L W L W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

10-471%

O U U U O O O O O U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsORU	W 95-71	-20.5	W +3.5	165.5	O 166
Nov 9	vsTA&M	W 87-63	+2.5	W +26.5	174.5	U 150
Nov 12	vsPV	W 94-67	-30.5	L −3.5	168.5	U 161
Nov 16	vsAMCC	W 85-69	-20.5	L −4.5	154.5	U 154
Nov 19	vsUSF	W 103-95	-3.5	W +4.5	177.5	O 198
Nov 22	vsNICH	W 95-81	-23.5	L −9.5	155.5	O 176
Nov 27	@NU	W 86-81	+2.5	W +7.5	159.5	O 167
Dec 2	vsSHSU	W 93-83	-13.5	L −3.5	169.5	O 176
Dec 6	vsGCU	W 84-78	-1.5	W +4.5	155.5	O 162
Dec 13	vsOU	L 76-85	+2.5	L −6.5	169.5	U 161
Dec 18	vsKC	W 91-79	-27.5	L −15.5	161.5	O 170
Dec 21	vsCSUF	W 94-89	-19.5	L −14.5	176.5	O 183
Dec 29	vsBCU	W 103-77	-20.5	W +5.5	164.5	O 180
Jan 3	@TTU	L 80-102	+12.5	L −9.5	167.5	O 182

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORU

W 95-71

+3.5

TA&M

W 87-63

+26.5

W 94-67

−3.5

AMCC

W 85-69

−4.5

USF

W 103-95

+4.5

NICH

W 95-81

−9.5

W 86-81

+7.5

SHSU

W 93-83

−3.5

GCU

W 84-78

+4.5

L 76-85

−6.5

W 91-79

−15.5

CSUF

W 94-89

−14.5

BCU

W 103-77

+5.5

TTU

L 80-102

−9.5

covered 6didn’t cover 8avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORU

W 95-71

+0.5

TA&M

W 87-63

−24.5

W 94-67

−7.5

AMCC

W 85-69

−0.5

USF

W 103-95

+20.5

NICH

W 95-81

+20.5

W 86-81

+7.5

SHSU

W 93-83

+6.5

GCU

W 84-78

+6.5

L 76-85

−8.5

W 91-79

+8.5

CSUF

W 94-89

+6.5

BCU

W 103-77

+15.5

TTU

L 80-102

+14.5

over 10under 4avg +4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UCF Knights at Oklahoma State Cowboys

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UCF

Oklahoma St

UCF

Oklahoma St