Florida Atlantic Owls at UCF Knights: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 23, 2:00 PM ETAddition Financial Arena · at UCF

#109FAUFAU80final

Final

#39UCFUCF85▲ winner

Closing lineUCF -8.5✓ FAU covered by 3.5

Closing total162.5Over by 2.5

Season records: FAU and UCF
FAU	This season	UCF
6-4	Record	10-1
7-3	ATS	6-5
6-4	O/U	5-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: FAU 77–88 UCF · ✓ UCF (83%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
FAU	38	42	80
UCF	33	52	85

1st half: FAU 38, UCF 33 (FAU by 5). The model had UCF by 6.3 and a total of 76.8 (actual 71).

Team stats

FAU		UCF
31-70 44%	Field goals	32-65 49%
9-30 30%	3-pointers	6-19 32%
9-12 75%	Free throws	15-22 68%
37 11 off	Rebounds	42 12 off
12	Assists	14
4	Steals	8
7	Blocks	1
12	Turnovers	12
17	Fouls	15
40	Points in paint	46
6	Fast-break points	23

Players

FAU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kanaan Carlyle G	38	15	11	4	6-18	2-9
Isaiah Elohim G	34	13	2	3	5-14	1-4
Devin Williams F	27	13	6	0	4-8	1-2
Xander Pintelon F	25	20	4	1	7-11	4-8
Niccolo Moretti G	24	6	1	2	3-3	0-0
Bench
Josiah Parker F	20	2	2	2	1-5	0-2
Maxim Logue F	13	4	4	0	2-4	0-0
Max Langenfeld G	12	2	1	0	1-4	0-3
Amar Amkou G	7	5	1	0	2-3	1-2

Did not play: Liam Dayco-Green, Devin Vanterpool, Yohann Sissoko, Zion Sampaio, Vincent Neugebauer, Lachlan Smith

UCF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Themus Fulks G	35	24	3	12	9-14	1-3
Jordan Burks F	30	14	6	0	5-11	1-4
Riley Kugel G	29	18	6	0	6-15	2-5
Jamichael Stillwell F	29	15	6	0	6-11	1-2
John Bol C	26	11	11	2	5-8	0-0
Bench
Carmelo Pacheco G	16	3	2	0	1-2	1-2
Devan Cambridge F	13	0	4	0	0-1	0-1
Chris Johnson G	7	0	2	0	0-2	0-1
George Beale Jr. G	6	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Kris Parker G	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jeremy Foumena C	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Elijah Hulsewe, Poohpha Warakulnukroh, Zachary Johnson, Tanner Jones

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UCF -8.5	UCF -10.8	UCF +2.3	L FAU covered
Total	162.5	164.2	Over 1.7	W Over
Projected score	—	FAU 76.7 · UCF 87.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UCF -6.3	FAU -5.0
1H total	76.8	71
1H projected score	FAU 35.3 · UCF 41.6	FAU 38 · UCF 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FAU LLWWW	7-3	70%	2-1	1-2
UCF LLWWW	6-5	55%	4-5	4-4

Venue/role: FAU away, as underdog; UCF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
FAU UUOOO	6-4	60%	6-4
UCF OUUUO	5-6	45%	10-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FAU	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
UCF	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

FAU 0–1 UCFUCF leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · FAU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 12, 2024-25	FAU 94 @ UCF 100	UCF -4.5	UCF W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

FAU

10 games played

Straight up

6-4

60% wins

Against the spread

7-3

70% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-4

60% overs · avg +5.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-460%

W W L W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

7-370%

W W L W W L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-460%

O O O U U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBC	W 83-78	-1.5	W +3.5	148.5	O 161
Nov 8	vsCOFC	W 94-77	-5.5	W +11.5	156.5	O 171
Nov 9	@LIB	L 68-88	+7.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 20	vsPAC	W 82-59	-7.5	W +15.5	154.5	U 141
Nov 24	vsLMU	W 76-65	-3.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 141
Nov 25	vsGMU	L 65-74	+4.5	L −4.5	143.5	U 139
Nov 30	vsSBU	L 65-70	-1.5	L −6.5	146.5	U 135
Dec 7	@FGCU	W 81-76	-2.5	W +2.5	150.5	O 157
Dec 13	vsUALB	W 105-79	-18.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 184
Dec 19	@SMC	L 75-88	+13.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 163

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 83-78

+3.5

COFC

W 94-77

+11.5

LIB

L 68-88

−12.5

PAC

W 82-59

+15.5

LMU

W 76-65

+7.5

GMU

L 65-74

−4.5

SBU

L 65-70

−6.5

FGCU

W 81-76

+2.5

UALB

W 105-79

+7.5

SMC

L 75-88

+0.5

covered 7didn’t cover 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 83-78

+12.5

COFC

W 94-77

+14.5

LIB

L 68-88

+3.5

PAC

W 82-59

−13.5

LMU

W 76-65

−3.5

GMU

L 65-74

−4.5

SBU

L 65-70

−11.5

FGCU

W 81-76

+6.5

UALB

W 105-79

+36.5

SMC

L 75-88

+17.5

over 6under 4avg +5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

UCF

11 games played

Straight up

10-1

91% wins

Against the spread

6-5

55% covers · avg +4.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-6

45% overs · avg +3.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-191%

W L W W W W W W W W W

9 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-555%

L L W W L W L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-645%

O O U U O U O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHOF	W 82-78	-8.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 160
Nov 8	vsVAN	L 93-105	+10.5	L −1.5	166.5	O 198
Nov 11	vsFAMU	W 97-60	-23.5	W +13.5	169.5	U 157
Nov 14	@TA&M	W 86-74	+10.5	W +22.5	172.5	U 160
Nov 17	vsOAK	W 87-83	-13.5	L −9.5	163.5	O 170
Nov 20	vsPITT	W 77-67	+1.5	W +11.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 25	vsQUIN	W 102-91	-13.5	L −2.5	162.5	O 193
Nov 29	vsVMI	W 82-57	-25.5	L −0.5	159.5	U 139
Dec 7	vsTOW	W 86-61	-9.5	W +15.5	148.5	U 147
Dec 17	vsMER	W 81-63	-16.5	W +1.5	160.5	U 144
Dec 20	vsFGCU	W 102-80	-17.5	W +4.5	161.5	O 182

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOF

W 82-78

−4.5

VAN

L 93-105

−1.5

FAMU

W 97-60

+13.5

TA&M

W 86-74

+22.5

OAK

W 87-83

−9.5

PITT

W 77-67

+11.5

QUIN

W 102-91

−2.5

VMI

W 82-57

−0.5

TOW

W 86-61

+15.5

MER

W 81-63

+1.5

FGCU

W 102-80

+4.5

covered 6didn’t cover 5avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOF

W 82-78

+19.5

VAN

L 93-105

+31.5

FAMU

W 97-60

−12.5

TA&M

W 86-74

−12.5

OAK

W 87-83

+6.5

PITT

W 77-67

−5.5

QUIN

W 102-91

+30.5

VMI

W 82-57

−20.5

TOW

W 86-61

−1.5

MER

W 81-63

−16.5

FGCU

W 102-80

+20.5

over 5under 6avg +3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Florida Atlantic Owls at UCF Knights

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

FAU

UCF

FAU

UCF