Kansas Jayhawks at UCF Knights: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 3, 2:00 PM ETAddition Financial Arena · at UCF · Conference game

#16KUKansas AP #1775final

Final

#39UCFUCF81▲ winner

Closing lineKU -4.5✓ UCF covered by 10.5

Closing total157.5Under by 1.5

Season records: Kansas and UCF
KU	This season	UCF
10-3	Record	11-1
9-4	ATS	6-6
4-9	O/U	6-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: KU 80–76 UCF · ✗ KU (62%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
KU	41	34	75
UCF	44	37	81

1st half: KU 41, UCF 44 (UCF by 3). The model had KU by 2.2 and a total of 72.8 (actual 85).

Team stats

KU		UCF
25-58 43%	Field goals	28-64 44%
8-23 35%	3-pointers	7-23 30%
17-23 74%	Free throws	18-26 69%
39 11 off	Rebounds	38 13 off
11	Assists	10
3	Steals	4
7	Blocks	2
12	Turnovers	6
18	Fouls	18
30	Points in paint	38
16	Fast-break points	15

Players

KU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tre White G	37	14	11	2	4-13	1-5
Melvin Council Jr. G	30	20	1	1	8-11	1-2
Flory Bidunga F	29	8	9	2	3-5	0-0
Bryson Tiller F	27	2	4	0	0-5	0-1
Darryn Peterson G	23	26	6	1	8-17	5-10
Bench
Jamari McDowell G	19	3	0	2	1-3	1-3
Kohl Rosario G	19	0	3	1	0-2	0-2
Elmarko Jackson G	11	2	0	2	1-2	0-0
Samis Calderon F	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Corbin Allen, Nginyu Ngala, Paul Mbiya, Will Thengvall, Justin Cross, Wilder Evers, Jayden Dawson

UCF	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Themus Fulks G	33	16	4	3	6-15	0-2
Jamichael Stillwell F	29	8	7	2	3-8	1-1
Jordan Burks F	29	14	4	1	4-7	3-6
Riley Kugel G	26	19	3	1	8-17	2-7
John Bol C	22	6	5	0	2-3	0-0
Bench
Carmelo Pacheco G	17	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Devan Cambridge F	17	8	8	1	1-4	0-2
Jeremy Foumena C	13	3	3	0	1-3	0-0
Chris Johnson G	13	7	0	2	3-6	1-4
Kris Parker G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Zachary Johnson, Tanner Jones, Elijah Hulsewe, George Beale Jr., Poohpha Warakulnukroh

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	KU -4.5	KU -3.5	UCF +1.0	W UCF covered
Total	157.5	155.4	Under 2.1	W Under
Projected score	—	KU 79.5 · UCF 76

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	KU -2.2	UCF -3.0
1H total	72.8	85
1H projected score	KU 37.5 · UCF 35.3	KU 41 · UCF 44

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KU LWWWW	9-4	69%	1-1	7-1
UCF LWWWL	6-6	50%	4-6	2-1

Venue/role: KU away, as favorite; UCF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
KU UUOUO	4-9	31%	10-3
UCF UUUOO	6-6	50%	11-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KU	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
UCF	10-0 100%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

KU 3–1 UCFKU leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · KU has won the last 3 meetings · KU 1-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 12, 2024-25	UCF 94 vs KU 98	KU -10.5	UCF W
Jan 28, 2024-25	UCF 87 @ KU 91	KU -12.5	UCF W
Jan 5, 2024-25	KU 99 @ UCF 48	UCF +4.5	KU W
Jan 10, 2023-24	KU 60 @ UCF 65	UCF +6.5	UCF W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kansas

13 games played

Straight up

10-3

77% wins

Against the spread

9-4

69% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-9

31% overs · avg −6.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-377%

W L W W L W W W L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-469%

W L W L L W W W L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-931%

U O U U U U U O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsGB	W 94-51	-30.5	W +12.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 7	@UNC	L 74-87	+2.5	L −10.5	159.5	O 161
Nov 11	vsAMCC	W 77-46	-25.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 123
Nov 15	vsPRIN	W 76-57	-22.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 133
Nov 18	vsDUKE	L 66-78	+10.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 24	vsND	W 71-61	-5.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 132
Nov 25	vsSYR	W 71-60	-4.5	W +6.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 26	vsTENN	W 81-76	+7.5	W +12.5	140.5	O 157
Dec 2	vsCONN	L 56-61	+3.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 117
Dec 7	vsMIZ	W 80-60	-5.5	W +14.5	150.5	U 140
Dec 13	@NCSU	W 77-76	+1.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 153
Dec 16	vsTOW	W 73-49	-14.5	W +9.5	137.5	U 122
Dec 22	vsDAV	W 90-61	-14.5	W +14.5	139.5	O 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 94-51

+12.5

UNC

L 74-87

−10.5

AMCC

W 77-46

+5.5

PRIN

W 76-57

−3.5

DUKE

L 66-78

−1.5

W 71-61

+4.5

SYR

W 71-60

+6.5

TENN

W 81-76

+12.5

CONN

L 56-61

−1.5

MIZ

W 80-60

+14.5

NCSU

W 77-76

+2.5

TOW

W 73-49

+9.5

DAV

W 90-61

+14.5

covered 9didn’t cover 4avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 94-51

−7.5

UNC

L 74-87

+1.5

AMCC

W 77-46

−22.5

PRIN

W 76-57

−11.5

DUKE

L 66-78

−5.5

W 71-61

−11.5

SYR

W 71-60

−13.5

TENN

W 81-76

+16.5

CONN

L 56-61

−24.5

MIZ

W 80-60

−10.5

NCSU

W 77-76

+4.5

TOW

W 73-49

−15.5

DAV

W 90-61

+11.5

over 4under 9avg −6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

UCF

12 games played

Straight up

11-1

92% wins

Against the spread

6-6

50% covers · avg +3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-6

50% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-192%

W L W W W W W W W W W W

10 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-650%

L L W W L W L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-650%

O O U U O U O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHOF	W 82-78	-8.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 160
Nov 8	vsVAN	L 93-105	+10.5	L −1.5	166.5	O 198
Nov 11	vsFAMU	W 97-60	-23.5	W +13.5	169.5	U 157
Nov 14	@TA&M	W 86-74	+10.5	W +22.5	172.5	U 160
Nov 17	vsOAK	W 87-83	-13.5	L −9.5	163.5	O 170
Nov 20	vsPITT	W 77-67	+1.5	W +11.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 25	vsQUIN	W 102-91	-13.5	L −2.5	162.5	O 193
Nov 29	vsVMI	W 82-57	-25.5	L −0.5	159.5	U 139
Dec 7	vsTOW	W 86-61	-9.5	W +15.5	148.5	U 147
Dec 17	vsMER	W 81-63	-16.5	W +1.5	160.5	U 144
Dec 20	vsFGCU	W 102-80	-17.5	W +4.5	161.5	O 182
Dec 23	vsFAU	W 85-80	-8.5	L −3.5	162.5	O 165

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOF

W 82-78

−4.5

VAN

L 93-105

−1.5

FAMU

W 97-60

+13.5

TA&M

W 86-74

+22.5

OAK

W 87-83

−9.5

PITT

W 77-67

+11.5

QUIN

W 102-91

−2.5

VMI

W 82-57

−0.5

TOW

W 86-61

+15.5

MER

W 81-63

+1.5

FGCU

W 102-80

+4.5

FAU

W 85-80

−3.5

covered 6didn’t cover 6avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOF

W 82-78

+19.5

VAN

L 93-105

+31.5

FAMU

W 97-60

−12.5

TA&M

W 86-74

−12.5

OAK

W 87-83

+6.5

PITT

W 77-67

−5.5

QUIN

W 102-91

+30.5

VMI

W 82-57

−20.5

TOW

W 86-61

−1.5

MER

W 81-63

−16.5

FGCU

W 102-80

+20.5

FAU

W 85-80

+2.5

over 6under 6avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Kansas Jayhawks at UCF Knights

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Kansas

UCF

Kansas

UCF