Kansas Jayhawks at NC State Wolfpack: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 13, 5:30 PM ETLenovo Center · at NC State

#16KUKansas AP #1977▲ winner

Final

#48NCSUNC State76final

Closing lineNCSU -1.5✓ KU covered by 2.5

Closing total148.5Over by 4.5

Season records: Kansas and NC State
KU	This season	NCSU
7-3	Record	7-3
6-4	ATS	5-5
2-8	O/U	5-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: KU 76–76 NCSU · ✗ NCSU (50%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
KU	30	36	11	77
NCSU	30	36	10	76

1st half: KU 30, NCSU 30 (tied). The model had KU by 0.1 and a total of 71.0 (actual 60).

Team stats

KU		NCSU
30-70 43%	Field goals	28-74 38%
11-30 37%	3-pointers	9-34 26%
6-10 60%	Free throws	11-15 73%
46 10 off	Rebounds	44 11 off
17	Assists	16
4	Steals	7
3	Blocks	2
8	Turnovers	7
12	Fouls	14
32	Points in paint	38
11	Fast-break points	7

Players

KU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Melvin Council Jr. G	43	36	7	4	13-27	9-15
Tre White G	40	12	6	3	4-11	0-6
Flory Bidunga F	32	8	11	2	4-7	0-0
Darryn Peterson G	31	17	5	4	7-14	2-5
Bryson Tiller F	29	2	4	0	1-5	0-2
Bench
Jamari McDowell G	19	0	2	2	0-3	0-2
Elmarko Jackson G	18	0	4	2	0-0	0-0
Kohl Rosario G	8	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Paul Mbiya C	4	0	2	0	0-2	0-0
Jayden Dawson G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Wilder Evers, Justin Cross, Will Thengvall, Samis Calderon, Nginyu Ngala, Corbin Allen

NCSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Quadir Copeland G	39	19	8	6	6-14	0-1
Ven-Allen Lubin F	39	16	11	2	7-11	0-0
Tre Holloman G	38	11	2	4	4-16	3-12
Darrion Williams F	34	17	10	4	7-17	3-9
Paul McNeil Jr. G	18	4	2	0	1-7	1-5
Bench
Alyn Breed G	24	6	4	0	2-4	1-3
Terrance Arceneaux G	14	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Matt Able G	13	3	2	0	1-4	1-3
Musa Sagnia C	6	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Colt Langdon, Jerry Deng, Jordan Snell, Zymicah Wilkins, Jayme Kontuniemi, Scottie Ebube

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NCSU -1.5	NCSU -0.1	KU +1.4	W KU covered
Total	148.5	151.8	Over 3.3	W Over
Projected score	—	KU 75.8 · NCSU 75.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	KU -0.1	PK
1H total	71.0	60
1H projected score	KU 35.6 · NCSU 35.5	KU 30 · NCSU 30

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KU WWWLW	6-4	60%	0-1	1-3
NCSU WLLLW	5-5	50%	4-2	5-4

Venue/role: KU away, as underdog; NCSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
KU UUOUU	2-8	20%	7-3
NCSU UOUUU	5-5	50%	7-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%
NCSU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

KU 2–0 NCSUKU leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · KU has won the last 2 meetings · KU 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 14, 2024-25	NCSU 60 @ KU 75	KU -14.5	KU W
Nov 23, 2022-23	NCSU 74 vs KU 80	KU -8.5	NCSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kansas

10 games played

Straight up

7-3

70% wins

Against the spread

6-4

60% covers · avg +3.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-8

20% overs · avg −8.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-370%

W L W W L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-460%

W L W L L W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-820%

U O U U U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsGB	W 94-51	-30.5	W +12.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 7	@UNC	L 74-87	+2.5	L −10.5	159.5	O 161
Nov 11	vsAMCC	W 77-46	-25.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 123
Nov 15	vsPRIN	W 76-57	-22.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 133
Nov 18	vsDUKE	L 66-78	+10.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 24	vsND	W 71-61	-5.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 132
Nov 25	vsSYR	W 71-60	-4.5	W +6.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 26	vsTENN	W 81-76	+7.5	W +12.5	140.5	O 157
Dec 2	vsCONN	L 56-61	+3.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 117
Dec 7	vsMIZ	W 80-60	-5.5	W +14.5	150.5	U 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 94-51

+12.5

UNC

L 74-87

−10.5

AMCC

W 77-46

+5.5

PRIN

W 76-57

−3.5

DUKE

L 66-78

−1.5

W 71-61

+4.5

SYR

W 71-60

+6.5

TENN

W 81-76

+12.5

CONN

L 56-61

−1.5

MIZ

W 80-60

+14.5

covered 6didn’t cover 4avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 94-51

−7.5

UNC

L 74-87

+1.5

AMCC

W 77-46

−22.5

PRIN

W 76-57

−11.5

DUKE

L 66-78

−5.5

W 71-61

−11.5

SYR

W 71-60

−13.5

TENN

W 81-76

+16.5

CONN

L 56-61

−24.5

MIZ

W 80-60

−10.5

over 2under 8avg −8.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

NC State

10 games played

Straight up

7-3

70% wins

Against the spread

5-5

50% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-5

50% overs · avg +6.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-370%

W W W W L W L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-550%

W W W L L W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-550%

O O O U O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNCCU	W 114-66	-31.5	W +16.5	145.5	O 180
Nov 7	vsUAB	W 94-70	-19.5	W +4.5	162.5	O 164
Nov 12	vsUNCG	W 110-64	-30.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 174
Nov 17	vsVCU	W 85-79	-11.5	L −5.5	164.5	U 164
Nov 24	vsHALL	L 74-85	-7.5	L −18.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 25	vsBOIS	W 81-70	-6.5	W +4.5	152.5	U 151
Nov 26	vsTEX	L 97-102	-1.5	L −6.5	161.5	O 199
Dec 3	@AUB	L 73-83	+5.5	L −4.5	162.5	U 156
Dec 6	vsUNCA	W 75-63	-28.5	L −16.5	155.5	U 138
Dec 10	vsLIB	W 85-45	-12.5	W +27.5	149.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NCCU

W 114-66

+16.5

UAB

W 94-70

+4.5

UNCG

W 110-64

+15.5

VCU

W 85-79

−5.5

HALL

L 74-85

−18.5

BOIS

W 81-70

+4.5

TEX

L 97-102

−6.5

AUB

L 73-83

−4.5

UNCA

W 75-63

−16.5

LIB

W 85-45

+27.5

covered 5didn’t cover 5avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NCCU

W 114-66

+34.5

UAB

W 94-70

+1.5

UNCG

W 110-64

+20.5

VCU

W 85-79

−0.5

HALL

L 74-85

+15.5

BOIS

W 81-70

−1.5

TEX

L 97-102

+37.5

AUB

L 73-83

−6.5

UNCA

W 75-63

−17.5

LIB

W 85-45

−19.5

over 5under 5avg +6.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Kansas Jayhawks at NC State Wolfpack

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Kansas

NC State

Kansas

NC State