Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at San Diego Toreros: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 13, 6:00 PM ETJenny Craig Pavilion · at San Diego

#321NAUN Arizona69final

Final

#146USDSan Diego78▲ winner

Closing lineUSD -4.5✓ USD covered by 4.5

Closing total149.5Under by 2.5

Season records: N Arizona and San Diego
NAU	This season	USD
2-5	Record	2-6
5-2	ATS	3-5
2-5	O/U	4-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NAU 72–76 USD · ✓ USD (64%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NAU	29	40	69
USD	40	38	78

1st half: NAU 29, USD 40 (USD by 11). The model had USD by 2.3 and a total of 69.1 (actual 69).

Team stats

NAU		USD
25-52 48%	Field goals	25-50 50%
7-20 35%	3-pointers	10-23 43%
12-14 86%	Free throws	18-24 75%
28 9 off	Rebounds	28 9 off
17	Assists	16
7	Steals	8
1	Blocks	2
17	Turnovers	14
21	Fouls	19
30	Points in paint	28
6	Fast-break points	9

Players

NAU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ryan Abelman G	32	14	2	4	5-9	4-6
Traivar Jackson F	29	2	7	2	0-2	0-0
Zack Davidson F	28	19	5	1	8-11	0-0
Isaiah Shaw F	27	7	0	2	2-4	0-1
Kavon Bradford G	17	3	3	2	1-7	0-0
Bench
Arne Osojnik F	23	17	2	2	6-10	2-6
Brennan Peterson G	16	2	1	2	1-2	0-1
Karl Poom F	13	2	5	1	1-1	0-0
Diego Campisano F	7	3	0	0	1-5	1-5
Oakland Fort G	7	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Chris Komin G	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Walker Timme, JT Amundsen, Erez Poran

USD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ty-Laur Johnson G	30	23	2	4	6-13	1-4
Vuk Boskovic F	29	4	5	1	1-4	0-1
Alejandro Aviles F	17	6	3	1	2-3	0-0
D'Arrae Goodwin F	16	2	4	1	1-2	0-1
Dominique Ford G	10	0	1	1	0-2	0-1
Bench
Toneari Lane G	24	15	1	1	5-9	5-9
Gavin Ripp F	21	4	4	0	1-2	0-0
Juanse Gorosito G	18	3	2	4	1-4	1-3
Adrian McIntyre G	16	10	3	1	4-5	2-2
Assane Diop F	9	2	0	2	1-2	0-0
Brandon Benjamin G	6	7	0	0	3-3	1-1
Tim Moore Jr. F	3	2	1	0	0-1	0-1
Emmanuel Callas G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Kjay Bradley, Josh Hecht, Nick Del Bosque, Neel Beniwal, Boden Grant, Caleb Versher, Piotr Winkowski

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	USD -4.5	USD -4.1	NAU +0.4	L USD covered
Total	149.5	147.5	Under 2.0	W Under
Projected score	—	NAU 71.7 · USD 75.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	USD -2.3	USD -11.0
1H total	69.1	69
1H projected score	NAU 33.4 · USD 35.7	NAU 29 · USD 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NAU WWLWL	5-2	71%	2-1	4-2
USD LLLLW	3-5	38%	3-2	1-3

Venue/role: NAU away, as underdog; USD home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NAU OUUUU	2-5	29%	2-5
USD OUOOO	4-4	50%	2-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NAUlast 7	2-5 29%	5-2 71%	2-5 29%
USDlast 8	2-6 25%	3-5 38%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NAU 0–1 USDUSD leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · NAU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 18, 2021-22	USD 69 vs NAU 59	NAU +2.5	USD W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Arizona

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −9.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

L L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-271%

W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-529%

O U O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDRKE	L 71-77	+8.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 148
Nov 11	@ARIZ	L 49-84	+35.5	W +0.5	163.5	U 133
Nov 24	vsCP	W 93-87	+1.5	W +7.5	164.5	O 180
Nov 26	vsSEMO	W 79-72	-2.5	W +4.5	153.5	U 151
Dec 3	vsSDST	L 62-75	+2.5	L −10.5	148.5	U 137
Dec 6	@NDSU	L 68-69	+12.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 137
Dec 9	@ASU	L 48-73	+16.5	L −8.5	154.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DRKE

L 71-77

+2.5

ARIZ

L 49-84

+0.5

W 93-87

+7.5

SEMO

W 79-72

+4.5

SDST

L 62-75

−10.5

NDSU

L 68-69

+11.5

ASU

L 48-73

−8.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DRKE

L 71-77

+3.5

ARIZ

L 49-84

−30.5

W 93-87

+15.5

SEMO

W 79-72

−2.5

SDST

L 62-75

−11.5

NDSU

L 68-69

−10.5

ASU

L 48-73

−33.5

over 2under 5avg −9.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

San Diego

8 games played

Straight up

2-6

25% wins

Against the spread

3-5

38% covers · avg −5.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-4

50% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-625%

L W W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-538%

L W W L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-450%

U U U O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsIDST	L 68-71	-4.5	L −7.5	152.5	U 139
Nov 12	vsIDHO	W 78-74	+1.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 152
Nov 18	vsGRAM	W 78-68	-6.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 146
Nov 21	vsUCR	L 71-85	-7.5	L −21.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 25	vsCBU	L 61-76	+7.5	L −7.5	146.5	U 137
Nov 30	@LBSU	L 72-76	-2.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 148
Dec 5	@SJSU	L 69-86	+6.5	L −10.5	144.5	O 155
Dec 9	vsUSC	L 81-94	+14.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IDST

L 68-71

−7.5

IDHO

W 78-74

+5.5

GRAM

W 78-68

+3.5

UCR

L 71-85

−21.5

CBU

L 61-76

−7.5

LBSU

L 72-76

−6.5

SJSU

L 69-86

−10.5

USC

L 81-94

+1.5

covered 3didn’t cover 5avg −5.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IDST

L 68-71

−13.5

IDHO

W 78-74

−3.5

GRAM

W 78-68

−3.5

UCR

L 71-85

+3.5

CBU

L 61-76

−9.5

LBSU

L 72-76

+0.5

SJSU

L 69-86

+10.5

USC

L 81-94

+16.5

over 4under 4avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at San Diego Toreros

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

N Arizona

San Diego

N Arizona

San Diego