Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at North Dakota State Bison: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 6, 8:00 PM ETScheels Center · at N Dakota St

#321NAUN Arizona68final

Final

#213NDSUN Dakota St69▲ winner

Closing lineNDSU -12.5✓ NAU covered by 11.5

Closing total147.5Under by 10.5

Season records: N Arizona and N Dakota St
NAU	This season	NDSU
2-3	Record	4-3
4-1	ATS	5-2
2-3	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NAU 69–79 NDSU · ✓ NDSU (82%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NAU	22	46	68
NDSU	30	39	69

1st half: NAU 22, NDSU 30 (NDSU by 8). The model had NDSU by 6.1 and a total of 69.1 (actual 52).

Team stats

NAU		NDSU
28-61 46%	Field goals	26-64 41%
6-17 35%	3-pointers	6-20 30%
6-8 75%	Free throws	11-18 61%
33 8 off	Rebounds	42 17 off
9	Assists	11
11	Steals	8
5	Blocks	3
13	Turnovers	16
19	Fouls	8
38	Points in paint	38
6	Fast-break points	7

Players

NAU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kavon Bradford G	39	6	5	5	3-10	0-1
Ryan Abelman G	36	11	6	1	4-13	3-8
Arne Osojnik F	28	11	8	0	5-9	1-3
Karl Poom F	25	9	3	3	4-9	1-3
Isaiah Shaw F	11	7	1	0	3-4	1-1
Bench
Zack Davidson F	26	20	4	0	7-12	0-0
Traivar Jackson F	14	4	4	0	2-3	0-0
Chris Komin G	13	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Diego Campisano F	6	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Brennan Peterson G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Erez Poran, JT Amundsen, Walker Timme, Oakland Fort

NDSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Trevian Carson G	34	19	12	3	7-16	3-6
Andy Stefonowicz G	34	7	3	4	2-6	1-3
Markhi Strickland G	28	16	5	1	7-10	0-0
Damari Wheeler-Thomas G	28	10	2	1	3-13	1-4
Noah Feddersen C	23	2	6	1	1-6	0-1
Bench
Treyson Anderson F	17	8	8	1	3-5	0-1
Riley Massey G	16	4	1	0	2-4	0-2
Carson Smith G	11	0	0	0	0-2	0-2
Tay Smith G	9	3	2	0	1-2	1-1

Did not play: Dom Clay, Riley Saunders, Caleb Schoenrock, Max Majerle, Emil Skytt

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NDSU -12.5	NDSU -10.4	NAU +2.1	W NAU covered
Total	147.5	147.6	Over 0.1	L Under
Projected score	—	NAU 68.6 · NDSU 79

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NDSU -6.1	NDSU -8.0
1H total	69.1	52
1H projected score	NAU 31.5 · NDSU 37.6	NAU 22 · NDSU 30

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NAU WWWWL	4-1	80%	1-0	3-1
NDSU WWWLW	5-2	71%	2-0	3-0

Venue/role: NAU away, as underdog; NDSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NAU OUOUU	2-3	40%	2-3
NDSU OOUOU	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NAUlast 5	2-3 40%	4-1 80%	2-3 40%
NDSUlast 7	4-3 57%	5-2 71%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Arizona

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

4-1

80% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −5.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-180%

W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDRKE	L 71-77	+8.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 148
Nov 11	@ARIZ	L 49-84	+35.5	W +0.5	163.5	U 133
Nov 24	vsCP	W 93-87	+1.5	W +7.5	164.5	O 180
Nov 26	vsSEMO	W 79-72	-2.5	W +4.5	153.5	U 151
Dec 3	vsSDST	L 62-75	+2.5	L −10.5	148.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DRKE

L 71-77

+2.5

ARIZ

L 49-84

+0.5

W 93-87

+7.5

SEMO

W 79-72

+4.5

SDST

L 62-75

−10.5

covered 4didn’t cover 1avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DRKE

L 71-77

+3.5

ARIZ

L 49-84

−30.5

W 93-87

+15.5

SEMO

W 79-72

−2.5

SDST

L 62-75

−11.5

over 2under 3avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

N Dakota St

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

5-2

71% covers · avg +5.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-271%

W L W W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ORST	L 65-67	+9.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 132
Nov 5	@UCD	L 68-80	+1.5	L −10.5	142.5	O 148
Nov 11	vsCSUN	W 90-68	-4.5	W +17.5	156.5	O 158
Nov 17	vsSIU	W 92-85	-1.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 177
Nov 26	vsJXST	W 56-43	-3.5	W +9.5	142.5	U 99
Nov 28	@ARST	L 80-85	+3.5	L −1.5	160.5	O 165
Dec 3	@MONT	W 81-72	+3.5	W +12.5	153.5	U 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ORST

L 65-67

+7.5

UCD

L 68-80

−10.5

CSUN

W 90-68

+17.5

SIU

W 92-85

+5.5

JXST

W 56-43

+9.5

ARST

L 80-85

−1.5

MONT

W 81-72

+12.5

covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ORST

L 65-67

−12.5

UCD

L 68-80

+5.5

CSUN

W 90-68

+1.5

SIU

W 92-85

+23.5

JXST

W 56-43

−43.5

ARST

L 80-85

+4.5

MONT

W 81-72

−0.5

over 4under 3avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at North Dakota State Bison

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

N Arizona

N Dakota St

N Arizona

N Dakota St