New Mexico State Aggies at Saint Mary's Gaels: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 9, 12:00 AM ETUniversity Credit Union Pavilion · at Saint Mary's

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: New Mexico St and Saint Mary's
NMSU	This season	SMC
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SMC 76–65 · win probability SMC 83%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 141.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SMC has more of the edges

NMSU 1, SMC 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SMCBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: NMSU 34.9, SMC 35.5. Allowed: NMSU 44.2, SMC 25.7

SMCBig

Three-pointers

NMSU hits 32.4% and allows 32.4%; SMC hits 38.7% and allows 31.4%. Threes are 38.7% and 36.4% of their shots

SMCBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NMSU 32.5%, SMC 37.5%. Defensive: NMSU 69.7%, SMC 76.1%

SMCBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: NMSU 48.5 and allows 48.7; SMC 52.8 and allows 46.8

SMCSmall

NMSU offense vs SMC defense

Offense 151st of 366 against a defense 44th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

NMSU has played the 174th-hardest schedule, SMC the 93rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

SMCSmall

Home court

SMC at home. This season: SMC 0-0 at home, NMSU 0-0 away

NMSUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NMSU 15.0%, SMC 16.9%. Forced: NMSU 14.7%, SMC 15.1%

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: NMSU plays 68.1 a game (224th fastest), SMC 66.2 (305th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NMSU 22%, SMC 32%. Transfers in: NMSU 6, SMC 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

SMC offense vs NMSU defense

Offense 129th of 366 against a defense 125th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SMC -11.1	—
Total	—	141.2	—
Projected score	—	NMSU 65.1 · SMC 76.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SMC -6.5	—
1H total	66.1	—
1H projected score	NMSU 29.8 · SMC 36.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NMSU WLWWL	14-15	48%	5-6	—
SMC WWWLL	19-13	59%	12-4	—

Venue/role: NMSU away; SMC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NMSU OOUUU	16-13	55%	13-16
SMC OUUUU	14-18	44%	26-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NMSU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
SMC	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

New Mexico St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 15	vs PAC	No recent meeting

Saint Mary's

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 12	@ UNM	W72–58WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NMSU 0–1 SMCSMC leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · NMSU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 14, 2022-23	NMSU 68 @ SMC 81	SMC -13.5	NMSU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

New Mexico St

29 games played

Straight up

13-16

45% wins

Against the spread

14-15

48% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-13

55% overs · avg +2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1645%

W W W W L L L W L L W L L W L L L L W L L W W L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1548%

W W W W L L L W L L W L W W L L L L W L W W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1355%

O O U U O O O O O O U U U O O U U U U O O O U O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 15	vsUNM	W 76-68	+3.5	W +11.5	139.5	O 144
Nov 21	vsSAM	W 81-72	-8.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 153
Nov 25	vsUCI	W 57-45	+2.5	W +14.5	139.5	U 102
Nov 26	vsGAST	W 77-58	-12.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 135
Dec 2	vsUSA	L 75-77	-2.5	L −4.5	135.5	O 152
Dec 6	@ACU	L 69-77	-1.5	L −9.5	131.5	O 146
Dec 13	vsTLSA	L 70-83	+4.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 153
Dec 21	vsSHSU	W 87-78	-5.5	W +3.5	153.5	O 165
Jan 2	@FIU	L 74-89	-1.5	L −16.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 4	@MOST	L 82-89	+1.5	L −5.5	134.5	O 171
Jan 8	vsWKU	W 80-64	-2.5	W +13.5	154.5	U 144
Jan 10	vsMTSU	L 55-59	-3.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 114
Jan 15	@LIB	L 71-73	+8.5	W +6.5	145.5	U 144
Jan 17	@DEL	W 97-68	-4.5	W +24.5	134.5	O 165
Jan 22	vsMOST	L 75-84	-6.5	L −15.5	144.5	O 159
Jan 24	vsFIU	L 78-81	-7.5	L −10.5	159.5	U 159
Jan 28	vsDEL	L 64-73	-13.5	L −22.5	137.5	U 137
Jan 31	@KENN	L 53-76	+3.5	L −19.5	159.5	U 129
Feb 4	@LT	W 72-63	+1.5	W +10.5	135.5	U 135
Feb 7	@UTEP	L 88-91	-1.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 179
Feb 11	vsLIB	L 75-77	+3.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 152
Feb 14	@JXST	W 79-70	+1.5	W +10.5	139.5	O 149
Feb 21	vsUTEP	W 67-63	-7.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 130
Feb 26	@WKU	L 70-93	+4.5	L −18.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 28	@MTSU	L 85-86	+5.5	W +4.5	148.5	O 171
Mar 5	vsJXST	W 77-75	-6.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 152
Mar 7	vsKENN	W 79-76	-1.5	W +1.5	157.5	U 155
Mar 10	vsJXST	W 68-63	-1.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 131
Mar 11	vsSHSU	L 61-69	+4.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNM

W 76-68

+11.5

SAM

W 81-72

+0.5

UCI

W 57-45

+14.5

GAST

W 77-58

+6.5

USA

L 75-77

−4.5

ACU

L 69-77

−9.5

TLSA

L 70-83

−8.5

SHSU

W 87-78

+3.5

FIU

L 74-89

−16.5

MOST

L 82-89

−5.5

WKU

W 80-64

+13.5

MTSU

L 55-59

−7.5

LIB

L 71-73

+6.5

DEL

W 97-68

+24.5

MOST

L 75-84

−15.5

FIU

L 78-81

−10.5

DEL

L 64-73

−22.5

KENN

L 53-76

−19.5

W 72-63

+10.5

UTEP

L 88-91

−4.5

LIB

L 75-77

+1.5

JXST

W 79-70

+10.5

UTEP

W 67-63

−3.5

WKU

L 70-93

−18.5

MTSU

L 85-86

+4.5

JXST

W 77-75

−4.5

KENN

W 79-76

+1.5

JXST

W 68-63

+3.5

SHSU

L 61-69

−3.5

covered 14didn’t cover 15avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNM

W 76-68

+4.5

SAM

W 81-72

+7.5

UCI

W 57-45

−37.5

GAST

W 77-58

−1.5

USA

L 75-77

+16.5

ACU

L 69-77

+14.5

TLSA

L 70-83

+6.5

SHSU

W 87-78

+11.5

FIU

L 74-89

+5.5

MOST

L 82-89

+36.5

WKU

W 80-64

−10.5

MTSU

L 55-59

−30.5

LIB

L 71-73

−1.5

DEL

W 97-68

+30.5

MOST

L 75-84

+14.5

FIU

L 78-81

−0.5

DEL

L 64-73

−0.5

KENN

L 53-76

−30.5

W 72-63

−0.5

UTEP

L 88-91

+40.5

LIB

L 75-77

+7.5

JXST

W 79-70

+9.5

UTEP

W 67-63

−12.5

WKU

L 70-93

+11.5

MTSU

L 85-86

+22.5

JXST

W 77-75

+6.5

KENN

W 79-76

−2.5

JXST

W 68-63

−10.5

SHSU

L 61-69

−24.5

over 16under 13avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Saint Mary's

32 games played

Straight up

26-6

81% wins

Against the spread

19-13

59% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

26-681%

W W W W W W W L W L W W W W W W W W L W W L W W W W W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

19-1359%

W W W W L L W L W L L L L W W W L W L W L W W W W W L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1844%

O O O O O U U O U U O U O U U O O O U U U U U U O U O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSTMN	W 84-58	-13.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 7	vsUTC	W 87-66	-15.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 153
Nov 11	vsOHIO	W 90-60	-17.5	W +12.5	144.5	O 150
Nov 14	vsUNT	W 80-49	-14.5	W +16.5	128.5	O 129
Nov 19	vsARST	W 85-72	-20.5	L −7.5	149.5	O 157
Nov 26	vsWICH	W 70-65	-9.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 135
Nov 27	vsVT	W 77-66	-5.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 143
Nov 28	vsVAN	L 71-96	+4.5	L −20.5	149.5	O 167
Dec 7	@DAV	W 70-61	-8.5	W +0.5	137.5	U 131
Dec 14	vsBOIS	L 67-68	-2.5	L −3.5	139.5	U 135
Dec 19	vsFAU	W 88-75	-13.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 163
Dec 22	vsUNI	W 63-58	-11.5	L −6.5	132.5	U 121
Dec 28	@LMU	W 78-73	-9.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 151
Dec 30	@PEPP	W 72-45	-19.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 117
Jan 2	vsPORT	W 78-57	-18.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 135
Jan 4	vsSEA	W 93-76	-11.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 169
Jan 10	vsWSU	W 88-82	-15.5	L −9.5	143.5	O 170
Jan 13	@SF	W 82-68	-5.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 150
Jan 17	@SCU	L 54-62	+1.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 116
Jan 21	vsORST	W 81-51	-19.5	W +10.5	142.5	U 132
Jan 24	@PORT	W 75-69	-14.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 31	@GONZ	L 65-73	+8.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 4	vsUSD	W 87-60	-20.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 147
Feb 7	vsSF	W 79-54	-11.5	W +13.5	142.5	U 133
Feb 11	vsPEPP	W 88-60	-24.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 148
Feb 14	@PAC	W 72-61	-7.5	W +3.5	135.5	U 133
Feb 18	@SEA	W 72-70	-9.5	L −7.5	133.5	O 142
Feb 21	@WSU	W 83-67	-8.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 150
Feb 25	vsSCU	W 86-67	-5.5	W +13.5	153.5	U 153
Feb 28	vsGONZ	W 70-59	+2.5	W +13.5	143.5	U 129
Mar 9	vsSCU	L 71-76	-4.5	L −9.5	150.5	U 147
Mar 19	vsTA&M	L 50-63	-2.5	L −15.5	149.5	U 113

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

STMN

W 84-58

+12.5

UTC

W 87-66

+5.5

OHIO

W 90-60

+12.5

UNT

W 80-49

+16.5

ARST

W 85-72

−7.5

WICH

W 70-65

−4.5

W 77-66

+5.5

VAN

L 71-96

−20.5

DAV

W 70-61

+0.5

BOIS

L 67-68

−3.5

FAU

W 88-75

−0.5

UNI

W 63-58

−6.5

LMU

W 78-73

−4.5

PEPP

W 72-45

+7.5

PORT

W 78-57

+2.5

SEA

W 93-76

+5.5

WSU

W 88-82

−9.5

W 82-68

+8.5

SCU

L 54-62

−6.5

ORST

W 81-51

+10.5

PORT

W 75-69

−8.5

GONZ

L 65-73

+0.5

USD

W 87-60

+6.5

W 79-54

+13.5

PEPP

W 88-60

+3.5

PAC

W 72-61

+3.5

SEA

W 72-70

−7.5

WSU

W 83-67

+7.5

SCU

W 86-67

+13.5

GONZ

W 70-59

+13.5

SCU

L 71-76

−9.5

TA&M

L 50-63

−15.5

covered 19didn’t cover 13avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

STMN

W 84-58

+0.5

UTC

W 87-66

+7.5

OHIO

W 90-60

+5.5

UNT

W 80-49

+0.5

ARST

W 85-72

+7.5

WICH

W 70-65

−4.5

W 77-66

−1.5

VAN

L 71-96

+17.5

DAV

W 70-61

−6.5

BOIS

L 67-68

−4.5

FAU

W 88-75

+17.5

UNI

W 63-58

−11.5

LMU

W 78-73

+7.5

PEPP

W 72-45

−24.5

PORT

W 78-57

−11.5

SEA

W 93-76

+29.5

WSU

W 88-82

+26.5

W 82-68

+8.5

SCU

L 54-62

−36.5

ORST

W 81-51

−10.5

PORT

W 75-69

−0.5

GONZ

L 65-73

−6.5

USD

W 87-60

−1.5

W 79-54

−9.5

PEPP

W 88-60

+3.5

PAC

W 72-61

−2.5

SEA

W 72-70

+8.5

WSU

W 83-67

+0.5

SCU

W 86-67

−0.5

GONZ

W 70-59

−14.5

SCU

L 71-76

−3.5

TA&M

L 50-63

−36.5

over 14under 18avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: New Mexico St 2, Saint Mary's 2, even 1

New Mexico StBetterSaint Mary's

G J. Washington TR11.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.8 ast Score 34

SMCBig

G J. Dent12.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 83

G G. Warren TR12.5 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.5 ast Score 68

NMSUSmall

G J. Dent-Smith TR8.2 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 53

G D. Dudley TR14.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65

NMSUBig

G R. Hawke2.5 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 21

F M. Lavrenov TR10.5 pts · 7.3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 40

SMCSmall

F T. Ndong TR4.9 pts · 6.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 73

F J. Osborne6.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 42

No call

F K. Gad1.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked

New Mexico StBetterSaint Mary's

NMSU offense151st of 366 · -4.6

SMCSmall

SMC defense44th of 366 · +2.5

NMSU defense125th of 366 · -2.3

Even

SMC offense129th of 366 · -3.5

Backcourt-1.3 · 3 players

SMCSmall

Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players

SMCSmall

Frontcourt+0.5 · 2 players

Bench-2.2 · 3 players

SMCSmall

Bench-0.6 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestNMSU betterSMC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

New Mexico St

Guards

J. Washington35 min · TRG. Warren32 min · TRD. Dudley31 min · TRG. Pickens21 minK. RobinsonNewD. GrantNew

Forwards

M. Lavrenov28 min · TRJ. Osborne24 minS. Payne20 min · TRL. Levillain20 min · TRP. WoodsonNew

Centers

A. DiongueNew

Saint Mary's

Guards

J. Dent37 minJ. Dent-Smith20 min · TRR. Hawke11 minL. Fennell8 min · TRM. Juzenas6 minD. BivinsNew

Forwards

T. Ndong18 min · TRK. Gad10 minV. Zougris9 min · TRJ. LewisNewT. MacLeanNew

Centers

S. Altuntas8 min · TRJ. GardnerNewF. PavelyNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NMSU73.8 #207

SMC76.8 #125

Points per possession

NMSU1.08 #179

SMC1.17 #39

Pace (possessions)

NMSU68.1 #224

SMC66.2 #305

Shooting

Effective FG%

NMSU48.5 #302

SMC52.8 #109

3-point %

NMSU32.4 #257

SMC38.7 #7

3-point attempt rate

NMSU38.7 #198

SMC36.4 #242

Free throw rate

NMSU34.9 #186

SMC35.5 #162

Possessions

Turnover rate

NMSU15.0 #66

SMC16.9 #201

Offensive rebound rate

NMSU32.5 #105

SMC37.5 #12

Assists per game

NMSU12.5 #250

SMC15.1 #82

Defense

Points allowed

NMSU73.8 #150

SMC65.2 #7

Points allowed per possession

NMSU1.08 #179

SMC0.98 #14

Opponent effective FG%

NMSU48.7 #52

SMC46.8 #20

Opponent 3-point %

NMSU32.4 #83

SMC31.4 #40

Turnovers forced

NMSU14.7 #311

SMC15.1 #274

Defensive rebound rate

NMSU69.7 #175

SMC76.1 #4

Steals per game

NMSU5.7 #276

SMC5.5 #302

Blocks per game

NMSU3.0 #221

SMC3.6 #129

NMSU		SMC
Scoring
73.8 #207	Points per game	76.8 #125
1.08 #179	Points per possession	1.17 #39
68.1 #224	Pace (possessions)	66.2 #305
Shooting
48.5 #302	Effective FG%	52.8 #109
32.4 #257	3-point %	38.7 #7
38.7 #198	3-point attempt rate	36.4 #242
34.9 #186	Free throw rate	35.5 #162
Possessions
15.0 #66	Turnover rate	16.9 #201
32.5 #105	Offensive rebound rate	37.5 #12
12.5 #250	Assists per game	15.1 #82
Defense
73.8 #150	Points allowed	65.2 #7
1.08 #179	Points allowed per possession	0.98 #14
48.7 #52	Opponent effective FG%	46.8 #20
32.4 #83	Opponent 3-point %	31.4 #40
14.7 #311	Turnovers forced	15.1 #274
69.7 #175	Defensive rebound rate	76.1 #4
5.7 #276	Steals per game	5.5 #302
3.0 #221	Blocks per game	3.6 #129

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

New Mexico St

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-13 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Sam Houston61–69
Wvs Jax State68–63
Wvs Kennesaw St79–76
Wvs Jax State77–75
L@ MTSU85–86

A week or more of rest.

Saint Mary's

26-6 in 2025-26 overall · 16-3 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Texas A&M50–63
Lvs Santa Clara71–76
Wvs Gonzaga70–59
Wvs Santa Clara86–67
W@ Washington St83–67

A week or more of rest.

New Mexico State Aggies at Saint Mary's Gaels

What could decide it: SMC has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

New Mexico St

Saint Mary's

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

New Mexico St

Saint Mary's