Saint Mary's Gaels at Pepperdine Waves: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 30, 9:00 PM ETFirestone Fieldhouse · at Pepperdine · Conference game

#97SMCSaint Mary's72▲ winner

Final

#172PEPPPepperdine45final

Closing lineSMC -19.5✓ SMC covered by 7.5

Closing total141.5Under by 24.5

Season records: Saint Mary's and Pepperdine
SMC	This season	PEPP
11-2	Record	3-9
6-7	ATS	5-7
8-5	O/U	4-8

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SMC 79–63 PEPP · ✓ SMC (92%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SMC	34	38	72
PEPP	25	20	45

1st half: SMC 34, PEPP 25 (SMC by 9). The model had SMC by 9.9 and a total of 66.2 (actual 59).

Team stats

SMC		PEPP
28-53 53%	Field goals	19-55 35%
6-17 35%	3-pointers	4-23 17%
10-10 100%	Free throws	3-4 75%
35 7 off	Rebounds	26 8 off
13	Assists	13
8	Steals	4
1	Blocks	2
10	Turnovers	13
8	Fouls	10
42	Points in paint	28
4	Fast-break points	2

Players

SMC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Joshua Dent G	38	11	2	3	4-8	1-5
Dillan Shaw G	34	7	2	2	3-7	1-3
Paulius Murauskas F	29	19	5	2	8-15	1-3
Harry Wessels C	19	4	6	0	2-4	0-0
Mikey Lewis G	19	7	1	1	3-7	1-3
Bench
Andrew McKeever C	22	8	10	3	4-5	0-0
Liam Campbell G	19	9	1	0	2-3	1-2
Rory Hawke G	8	0	1	0	0-2	0-0
Mantas Juzenas G	5	0	2	1	0-0	0-0
Tony Duckett G	4	4	1	1	1-1	0-0
Cade Bennett G	2	3	2	0	1-1	1-1
Oliver Faubert F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jazz Gardner, Trent MacLean, Kevin Gad

PEPP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Styles Phipps G	32	8	5	3	4-9	0-2
Danilo Dozic C	31	8	2	2	3-9	2-5
Aaron Clark G	29	7	2	1	3-8	1-3
Yonatan Levy F	23	0	3	5	0-2	0-2
Pavle Stosic F	19	8	1	0	3-6	0-1
Bench
Javon Cooley G	25	6	5	1	3-10	0-4
Luka Vudragovic G	16	5	2	0	2-6	1-4
Stefan Cicic C	14	0	2	1	0-0	0-0
David Mager G	8	3	0	0	1-5	0-2
Pasha Shemirani F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Vladimir Sudar F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Nikola Radovanovic, Anto Balian, Ty Virgil, Preston Phillips, Yassine Gharram

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SMC -19.5	SMC -16.3	PEPP +3.2	L SMC covered
Total	141.5	141.2	Under 0.3	W Under
Projected score	—	SMC 78.7 · PEPP 62.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SMC -9.9	SMC -9.0
1H total	66.2	59
1H projected score	SMC 38 · PEPP 28.1	SMC 34 · PEPP 25

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SMC WLLLL	6-7	46%	1-1	6-6
PEPP LWWWL	5-7	42%	2-5	4-7

Venue/role: SMC away, as favorite; PEPP home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SMC UUOUO	8-5	62%	11-2
PEPP UUOOU	4-8	33%	3-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SMC	8-2 80%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
PEPP	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

SMC 8–0 PEPPSMC leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · SMC has won the last 8 meetings · SMC 7-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 10, 2024-25	PEPP 59 vs SMC 74	SMC -19.5	PEPP W
Jan 18, 2024-25	SMC 74 @ PEPP 50	PEPP +13.5	SMC W
Jan 2, 2024-25	PEPP 41 @ SMC 71	SMC -17.5	SMC W
Feb 29, 2023-24	SMC 83 @ PEPP 57	PEPP +15.5	SMC W
Feb 15, 2023-24	PEPP 59 @ SMC 103	SMC -19.5	SMC W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Saint Mary's

13 games played

Straight up

11-2

85% wins

Against the spread

6-7

46% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-5

62% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-285%

W W W W W W W L W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-746%

W W W W L L W L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

8-562%

O O O O O U U O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSTMN	W 84-58	-13.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 7	vsUTC	W 87-66	-15.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 153
Nov 11	vsOHIO	W 90-60	-17.5	W +12.5	144.5	O 150
Nov 14	vsUNT	W 80-49	-14.5	W +16.5	128.5	O 129
Nov 19	vsARST	W 85-72	-20.5	L −7.5	149.5	O 157
Nov 26	vsWICH	W 70-65	-9.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 135
Nov 27	vsVT	W 77-66	-5.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 143
Nov 28	vsVAN	L 71-96	+4.5	L −20.5	149.5	O 167
Dec 7	@DAV	W 70-61	-8.5	W +0.5	137.5	U 131
Dec 14	vsBOIS	L 67-68	-2.5	L −3.5	139.5	U 135
Dec 19	vsFAU	W 88-75	-13.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 163
Dec 22	vsUNI	W 63-58	-11.5	L −6.5	132.5	U 121
Dec 28	@LMU	W 78-73	-9.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

STMN

W 84-58

+12.5

UTC

W 87-66

+5.5

OHIO

W 90-60

+12.5

UNT

W 80-49

+16.5

ARST

W 85-72

−7.5

WICH

W 70-65

−4.5

W 77-66

+5.5

VAN

L 71-96

−20.5

DAV

W 70-61

+0.5

BOIS

L 67-68

−3.5

FAU

W 88-75

−0.5

UNI

W 63-58

−6.5

LMU

W 78-73

−4.5

covered 6didn’t cover 7avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

STMN

W 84-58

+0.5

UTC

W 87-66

+7.5

OHIO

W 90-60

+5.5

UNT

W 80-49

+0.5

ARST

W 85-72

+7.5

WICH

W 70-65

−4.5

W 77-66

−1.5

VAN

L 71-96

+17.5

DAV

W 70-61

−6.5

BOIS

L 67-68

−4.5

FAU

W 88-75

+17.5

UNI

W 63-58

−11.5

LMU

W 78-73

+7.5

over 8under 5avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pepperdine

12 games played

Straight up

3-9

25% wins

Against the spread

5-7

42% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-8

33% overs · avg −5.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-925%

L L W L L L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-742%

W L W L L L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-833%

U O O U U U U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@UCLA	L 63-74	+29.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 137
Nov 15	vsUNCO	L 81-88	+1.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 18	vsNOLA	W 90-79	-5.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 21	vsSFA	L 60-63	+1.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 123
Nov 26	vsFRES	L 53-76	+2.5	L −20.5	150.5	U 129
Nov 29	@CSUF	L 69-83	+1.5	L −12.5	161.5	U 152
Dec 2	vsACU	L 63-71	+1.5	L −6.5	137.5	U 134
Dec 6	vsUVM	L 56-65	+1.5	L −7.5	142.5	U 121
Dec 13	@CSUB	W 70-62	+1.5	W +9.5	147.5	U 132
Dec 18	@LBSU	L 78-81	+4.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 159
Dec 20	vsRICE	W 84-62	+1.5	W +23.5	140.5	O 146
Dec 28	vsGONZ	L 56-96	+29.5	L −10.5	152.5	U 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCLA

L 63-74

+18.5

UNCO

L 81-88

−5.5

NOLA

W 90-79

+5.5

SFA

L 60-63

−1.5

FRES

L 53-76

−20.5

CSUF

L 69-83

−12.5

ACU

L 63-71

−6.5

UVM

L 56-65

−7.5

CSUB

W 70-62

+9.5

LBSU

L 78-81

+1.5

RICE

W 84-62

+23.5

GONZ

L 56-96

−10.5

covered 5didn’t cover 7avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCLA

L 63-74

−15.5

UNCO

L 81-88

+15.5

NOLA

W 90-79

+11.5

SFA

L 60-63

−25.5

FRES

L 53-76

−21.5

CSUF

L 69-83

−9.5

ACU

L 63-71

−3.5

UVM

L 56-65

−21.5

CSUB

W 70-62

−15.5

LBSU

L 78-81

+17.5

RICE

W 84-62

+5.5

GONZ

L 56-96

−0.5

over 4under 8avg −5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Saint Mary's Gaels at Pepperdine Waves

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Saint Mary's

Pepperdine

Saint Mary's

Pepperdine