Gonzaga Bulldogs at Pepperdine Waves: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 28, 8:00 PM ETFirestone Fieldhouse · at Pepperdine · Conference game

#17GONZGonzaga AP #796▲ winner

Final

#172PEPPPepperdine56final

Closing lineGONZ -29.5✓ GONZ covered by 10.5

Closing total152.5Under by 0.5

Season records: Gonzaga and Pepperdine
GONZ	This season	PEPP
12-1	Record	3-8
8-5	ATS	5-6
7-6	O/U	4-7

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: GONZ 90–63 PEPP · ✓ GONZ (99%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
GONZ	44	52	96
PEPP	26	30	56

1st half: GONZ 44, PEPP 26 (GONZ by 18). The model had GONZ by 16.4 and a total of 71.5 (actual 70).

Team stats

GONZ		PEPP
36-67 54%	Field goals	19-56 34%
10-22 45%	3-pointers	5-19 26%
14-19 74%	Free throws	13-20 65%
44 13 off	Rebounds	31 10 off
21	Assists	11
8	Steals	6
7	Blocks	2
9	Turnovers	14
21	Fouls	13
50	Points in paint	18
19	Fast-break points	0

Players

GONZ	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Braden Huff F	27	10	3	4	5-7	0-0
Graham Ike F	23	13	10	2	6-9	0-1
Emmanuel Innocenti G	19	2	2	0	1-5	0-3
Braeden Smith G	18	15	5	8	6-8	2-2
Steele Venters G	15	8	1	0	3-6	2-5
Bench
Tyon Grant-Foster G	20	18	2	0	6-7	2-2
Adam Miller G	18	3	1	0	1-8	1-4
Mario Saint-Supery G	18	5	4	4	1-7	1-2
Davis Fogle G	16	15	2	0	5-7	2-3
Jalen Warley G	14	4	5	3	1-2	0-0
Ismaila Diagne C	8	3	7	0	1-1	0-0
Cade Orness G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Joaquim ArauzMoore G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Noah Haaland, Alonzo Metz, Parker Jefferson

PEPP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Aaron Clark G	33	4	5	3	2-14	0-6
Styles Phipps G	33	6	7	3	1-8	0-1
Danilo Dozic C	30	8	0	1	2-6	2-4
Yonatan Levy F	27	15	6	0	3-6	2-3
Pavle Stosic F	15	2	3	1	1-4	0-2
Bench
Javon Cooley G	25	13	2	1	6-8	1-3
Stefan Cicic C	13	4	6	0	2-6	0-0
David Mager G	9	2	1	0	1-3	0-0
Luka Vudragovic G	8	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Vladimir Sudar F	4	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Pasha Shemirani F	3	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Yassine Gharram, Preston Phillips, Ty Virgil, Anto Balian, Nikola Radovanovic

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	GONZ -29.5	GONZ -27.1	PEPP +2.4	L GONZ covered
Total	152.5	152.7	Over 0.2	L Under
Projected score	—	GONZ 89.9 · PEPP 62.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GONZ -16.4	GONZ -18.0
1H total	71.5	70
1H projected score	GONZ 44 · PEPP 27.6	GONZ 44 · PEPP 26

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GONZ WWLLL	8-5	62%	0-1	8-5
PEPP LLWWW	5-6	45%	2-4	4-6

Venue/role: GONZ away, as favorite; PEPP home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GONZ UOOOO	7-6	54%	12-1
PEPP UUUOO	4-7	36%	3-8

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GONZ	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
PEPP	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

GONZ 8–0 PEPPGONZ leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · GONZ has won the last 8 meetings · GONZ 5-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 15, 2024-25	PEPP 55 @ GONZ 107	GONZ -25.5	GONZ W
Dec 30, 2024-25	GONZ 89 @ PEPP 82	PEPP +20.5	PEPP W
Jan 18, 2023-24	GONZ 86 @ PEPP 61	PEPP +12.5	GONZ W
Jan 4, 2023-24	PEPP 60 @ GONZ 86	GONZ -20.5	GONZ W
Feb 18, 2022-23	GONZ 97 @ PEPP 88	PEPP +16.5	PEPP W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Gonzaga

13 games played

Straight up

12-1

92% wins

Against the spread

8-5

62% covers · avg +7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-6

54% overs · avg −1.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-192%

W W W W W W W L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

8-562%

W W W L W W W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-654%

U U U U O O O U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTXSO	W 98-43	-29.5	W +25.5	157.5	U 141
Nov 8	vsOU	W 83-68	-10.5	W +4.5	166.5	U 151
Nov 11	vsCREI	W 90-63	-12.5	W +14.5	164.5	U 153
Nov 14	@ASU	W 77-65	-13.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 142
Nov 17	vsSUU	W 122-50	-35.5	W +36.5	160.5	O 172
Nov 24	vsALA	W 95-85	-4.5	W +5.5	178.5	O 180
Nov 25	vsMD	W 100-61	-14.5	W +24.5	157.5	O 161
Nov 26	vsMICH	L 61-101	-3.5	L −43.5	165.5	U 162
Dec 5	vsUK	W 94-59	-5.5	W +29.5	159.5	U 153
Dec 7	vsUNF	W 109-58	-42.5	W +8.5	166.5	O 167
Dec 13	vsUCLA	W 82-72	-10.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 154
Dec 17	vsCAM	W 98-70	-36.5	L −8.5	160.5	O 168
Dec 21	vsORE	W 91-82	-12.5	L −3.5	155.5	O 173

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TXSO

W 98-43

+25.5

W 83-68

+4.5

CREI

W 90-63

+14.5

ASU

W 77-65

−1.5

SUU

W 122-50

+36.5

ALA

W 95-85

+5.5

W 100-61

+24.5

MICH

L 61-101

−43.5

W 94-59

+29.5

UNF

W 109-58

+8.5

UCLA

W 82-72

−0.5

CAM

W 98-70

−8.5

ORE

W 91-82

−3.5

covered 8didn’t cover 5avg +7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TXSO

W 98-43

−16.5

W 83-68

−15.5

CREI

W 90-63

−11.5

ASU

W 77-65

−16.5

SUU

W 122-50

+11.5

ALA

W 95-85

+1.5

W 100-61

+3.5

MICH

L 61-101

−3.5

W 94-59

−6.5

UNF

W 109-58

+0.5

UCLA

W 82-72

+6.5

CAM

W 98-70

+7.5

ORE

W 91-82

+17.5

over 7under 6avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pepperdine

11 games played

Straight up

3-8

27% wins

Against the spread

5-6

45% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-7

36% overs · avg −5.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-827%

L L W L L L L L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-645%

W L W L L L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-736%

U O O U U U U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@UCLA	L 63-74	+29.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 137
Nov 15	vsUNCO	L 81-88	+1.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 18	vsNOLA	W 90-79	-5.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 21	vsSFA	L 60-63	+1.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 123
Nov 26	vsFRES	L 53-76	+2.5	L −20.5	150.5	U 129
Nov 29	@CSUF	L 69-83	+1.5	L −12.5	161.5	U 152
Dec 2	vsACU	L 63-71	+1.5	L −6.5	137.5	U 134
Dec 6	vsUVM	L 56-65	+1.5	L −7.5	142.5	U 121
Dec 13	@CSUB	W 70-62	+1.5	W +9.5	147.5	U 132
Dec 18	@LBSU	L 78-81	+4.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 159
Dec 20	vsRICE	W 84-62	+1.5	W +23.5	140.5	O 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCLA

L 63-74

+18.5

UNCO

L 81-88

−5.5

NOLA

W 90-79

+5.5

SFA

L 60-63

−1.5

FRES

L 53-76

−20.5

CSUF

L 69-83

−12.5

ACU

L 63-71

−6.5

UVM

L 56-65

−7.5

CSUB

W 70-62

+9.5

LBSU

L 78-81

+1.5

RICE

W 84-62

+23.5

covered 5didn’t cover 6avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCLA

L 63-74

−15.5

UNCO

L 81-88

+15.5

NOLA

W 90-79

+11.5

SFA

L 60-63

−25.5

FRES

L 53-76

−21.5

CSUF

L 69-83

−9.5

ACU

L 63-71

−3.5

UVM

L 56-65

−21.5

CSUB

W 70-62

−15.5

LBSU

L 78-81

+17.5

RICE

W 84-62

+5.5

over 4under 7avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Gonzaga Bulldogs at Pepperdine Waves

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Gonzaga

Pepperdine

Gonzaga

Pepperdine