Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Oregon Ducks: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Dec 21, 6:00 PM ETModa Center · Neutral site

#17GONZGonzaga AP #791▲ winner

Final

#57OREOregon82final

Closing lineGONZ -12.5✓ ORE covered by 3.5

Closing total155.5Over by 17.5

Season records: Gonzaga and Oregon
GONZ	This season	ORE
11-1	Record	6-5
8-4	ATS	2-9
6-6	O/U	7-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: GONZ 86–72 ORE · ✓ GONZ (90%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
GONZ	42	49	91
ORE	39	43	82

1st half: GONZ 42, ORE 39 (GONZ by 3). The model had GONZ by 8.8 and a total of 73.7 (actual 81).

Team stats

GONZ		ORE
29-62 47%	Field goals	29-60 48%
10-23 43%	3-pointers	11-32 34%
23-28 82%	Free throws	13-13 100%
35 13 off	Rebounds	33 9 off
20	Assists	20
6	Steals	3
2	Blocks	4
5	Turnovers	11
14	Fouls	18
28	Points in paint	26
12	Fast-break points	5

Players

GONZ	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Graham Ike F	37	17	11	3	4-14	0-4
Emmanuel Innocenti G	26	0	3	2	0-3	0-2
Braden Huff F	26	20	6	1	9-16	1-3
Steele Venters G	25	14	1	2	4-5	4-5
Mario Saint-Supery G	13	0	0	2	0-1	0-1
Bench
Braeden Smith G	27	21	3	7	7-10	1-2
Adam Miller G	16	9	0	1	3-5	3-5
Jalen Warley G	16	0	1	1	0-3	0-0
Tyon Grant-Foster G	14	10	4	1	2-5	1-1

Did not play: Parker Jefferson, Alonzo Metz, Noah Haaland, Ismaila Diagne, Cade Orness, Davis Fogle, Joaquim ArauzMoore

ORE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nate Bittle C	37	28	9	5	10-19	3-8
Jackson Shelstad G	36	12	0	4	5-13	2-9
Takai Simpkins G	33	13	3	1	4-8	3-6
Kwame Evans Jr. F	30	14	7	4	4-8	2-5
Sean Stewart F	13	2	2	2	1-2	0-0
Bench
Dez Lindsay F	21	4	1	1	2-6	0-3
Wei Lin G	17	9	1	2	3-4	1-1
Ege Demir C	7	0	3	1	0-0	0-0
Jamari Phillips G	6	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Rian Gonzales, JJ Frakes, Efe Vatan, Luke Johnson, Oleksandr Kobzystyi, Drew Carter, Devon Pryor, Miles Stewart

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	GONZ -12.5	GONZ -14.4	GONZ +1.9	L ORE covered
Total	155.5	157.4	Over 1.9	W Over
Projected score	—	GONZ 85.9 · ORE 71.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GONZ -8.8	GONZ -3.0
1H total	73.7	81
1H projected score	GONZ 41.2 · ORE 32.4	GONZ 42 · ORE 39

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
GONZ LWWLL	8-4	67%	3-2	8-4
ORE LLLWW	2-9	18%	0-3	0-4

Venue/role: GONZ neutral site, as favorite; ORE neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GONZ UUOOO	6-6	50%	11-1
ORE UOUOO	7-4	64%	6-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GONZ	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
ORE	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Gonzaga

12 games played

Straight up

11-1

92% wins

Against the spread

8-4

67% covers · avg +7.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-6

50% overs · avg −3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-192%

W W W W W W W L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

8-467%

W W W L W W W L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-650%

U U U U O O O U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTXSO	W 98-43	-29.5	W +25.5	157.5	U 141
Nov 8	vsOU	W 83-68	-10.5	W +4.5	166.5	U 151
Nov 11	vsCREI	W 90-63	-12.5	W +14.5	164.5	U 153
Nov 14	@ASU	W 77-65	-13.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 142
Nov 17	vsSUU	W 122-50	-35.5	W +36.5	160.5	O 172
Nov 24	vsALA	W 95-85	-4.5	W +5.5	178.5	O 180
Nov 25	vsMD	W 100-61	-14.5	W +24.5	157.5	O 161
Nov 26	vsMICH	L 61-101	-3.5	L −43.5	165.5	U 162
Dec 5	vsUK	W 94-59	-5.5	W +29.5	159.5	U 153
Dec 7	vsUNF	W 109-58	-42.5	W +8.5	166.5	O 167
Dec 13	vsUCLA	W 82-72	-10.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 154
Dec 17	vsCAM	W 98-70	-36.5	L −8.5	160.5	O 168

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TXSO

W 98-43

+25.5

W 83-68

+4.5

CREI

W 90-63

+14.5

ASU

W 77-65

−1.5

SUU

W 122-50

+36.5

ALA

W 95-85

+5.5

W 100-61

+24.5

MICH

L 61-101

−43.5

W 94-59

+29.5

UNF

W 109-58

+8.5

UCLA

W 82-72

−0.5

CAM

W 98-70

−8.5

covered 8didn’t cover 4avg +7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TXSO

W 98-43

−16.5

W 83-68

−15.5

CREI

W 90-63

−11.5

ASU

W 77-65

−16.5

SUU

W 122-50

+11.5

ALA

W 95-85

+1.5

W 100-61

+3.5

MICH

L 61-101

−3.5

W 94-59

−6.5

UNF

W 109-58

+0.5

UCLA

W 82-72

+6.5

CAM

W 98-70

+7.5

over 6under 6avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Oregon

11 games played

Straight up

6-5

55% wins

Against the spread

2-9

18% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-4

64% overs · avg +3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-555%

W W W W L L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-918%

L L L L L L L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-464%

U U O O O O U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsHAW	W 60-59	-11.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 119
Nov 7	vsRICE	W 67-63	-15.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 130
Nov 12	vsSDST	W 83-69	-16.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 17	vsORST	W 87-75	-13.5	L −1.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 24	vsAUB	L 73-84	+4.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 157
Nov 25	vsSDSU	L 80-97	-2.5	L −19.5	141.5	O 177
Nov 27	vsCREI	L 66-76	+2.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 142
Dec 2	vsUSC	L 77-82	+2.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 159
Dec 6	@UCLA	L 63-74	+8.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 137
Dec 13	vsUCD	W 104-62	-13.5	W +28.5	146.5	O 166
Dec 17	vsPORT	W 94-69	-19.5	W +5.5	154.5	O 163

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HAW

W 60-59

−10.5

RICE

W 67-63

−11.5

SDST

W 83-69

−2.5

ORST

W 87-75

−1.5

AUB

L 73-84

−6.5

SDSU

L 80-97

−19.5

CREI

L 66-76

−7.5

USC

L 77-82

−2.5

UCLA

L 63-74

−2.5

UCD

W 104-62

+28.5

PORT

W 94-69

+5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 9avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HAW

W 60-59

−25.5

RICE

W 67-63

−15.5

SDST

W 83-69

+6.5

ORST

W 87-75

+20.5

AUB

L 73-84

+1.5

SDSU

L 80-97

+35.5

CREI

L 66-76

−8.5

USC

L 77-82

+4.5

UCLA

L 63-74

−9.5

UCD

W 104-62

+19.5

PORT

W 94-69

+8.5

over 7under 4avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Oregon Ducks

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Gonzaga

Oregon

Gonzaga

Oregon