Saint Mary's Gaels at New Mexico Lobos: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 12, 12:00 AM ETThe Pit · at New Mexico

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Saint Mary's and New Mexico
SMC	This season	UNM
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNM 75–71 · win probability UNM 65%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

SMC 2, UNM 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UNMBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SMC 16.9%, UNM 14.9%. Forced: SMC 15.1%, UNM 19.0%

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: SMC plays 66.2 a game (305th fastest), UNM 70.7 (87th). Faster games mean more points

SMCSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SMC 37.5%, UNM 30.6%. Defensive: SMC 76.1%, UNM 72.3%

SMCSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: SMC 35.5, UNM 35.8. Allowed: SMC 25.7, UNM 33.3

UNMSmall

Home court

UNM at home. This season: UNM 0-0 at home, SMC 0-0 away

Even

Three-pointers

SMC hits 38.7% and allows 31.4%; UNM hits 35.6% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 36.4% and 41.9% of their shots

Even

UNM offense vs SMC defense

Offense 72nd of 366 against a defense 44th, on the model’s ratings

Even

SMC offense vs UNM defense

Offense 129th of 366 against a defense 103rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: SMC 52.8 and allows 46.8; UNM 53.5 and allows 49.5

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SMC 32%, UNM 42%. Transfers in: SMC 5, UNM 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Schedule so far

SMC has played the 93rd-hardest schedule, UNM the 97th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UNM -4.5	—
Total	—	146.2	—
Projected score	—	SMC 70.8 · UNM 75.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNM -2.6	—
1H total	68.4	—
1H projected score	SMC 32.9 · UNM 35.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SMC WWWLL	19-13	59%	6-4	—
UNM WWWWL	20-16	56%	11-8	—

Venue/role: SMC away; UNM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SMC OUUUU	14-18	44%	26-6
UNM UOUUU	23-13	64%	25-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SMC	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
UNM	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Saint Mary's

No more games listed yet.

New Mexico

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 15	vs MER	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SMC 1–1 UNMSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · SMC 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 9, 2023-24	UNM 58 @ SMC 72	SMC -8.5	SMC W
Nov 30, 2022-23	UNM 69 @ SMC 65	SMC -9.5	UNM W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Saint Mary's

32 games played

Straight up

26-6

81% wins

Against the spread

19-13

59% covers · avg +1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

26-681%

W W W W W W W L W L W W W W W W W W L W W L W W W W W W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

19-1359%

W W W W L L W L W L L L L W W W L W L W L W W W W W L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1844%

O O O O O U U O U U O U O U U O O O U U U U U U O U O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSTMN	W 84-58	-13.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 7	vsUTC	W 87-66	-15.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 153
Nov 11	vsOHIO	W 90-60	-17.5	W +12.5	144.5	O 150
Nov 14	vsUNT	W 80-49	-14.5	W +16.5	128.5	O 129
Nov 19	vsARST	W 85-72	-20.5	L −7.5	149.5	O 157
Nov 26	vsWICH	W 70-65	-9.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 135
Nov 27	vsVT	W 77-66	-5.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 143
Nov 28	vsVAN	L 71-96	+4.5	L −20.5	149.5	O 167
Dec 7	@DAV	W 70-61	-8.5	W +0.5	137.5	U 131
Dec 14	vsBOIS	L 67-68	-2.5	L −3.5	139.5	U 135
Dec 19	vsFAU	W 88-75	-13.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 163
Dec 22	vsUNI	W 63-58	-11.5	L −6.5	132.5	U 121
Dec 28	@LMU	W 78-73	-9.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 151
Dec 30	@PEPP	W 72-45	-19.5	W +7.5	141.5	U 117
Jan 2	vsPORT	W 78-57	-18.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 135
Jan 4	vsSEA	W 93-76	-11.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 169
Jan 10	vsWSU	W 88-82	-15.5	L −9.5	143.5	O 170
Jan 13	@SF	W 82-68	-5.5	W +8.5	141.5	O 150
Jan 17	@SCU	L 54-62	+1.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 116
Jan 21	vsORST	W 81-51	-19.5	W +10.5	142.5	U 132
Jan 24	@PORT	W 75-69	-14.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 144
Jan 31	@GONZ	L 65-73	+8.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 4	vsUSD	W 87-60	-20.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 147
Feb 7	vsSF	W 79-54	-11.5	W +13.5	142.5	U 133
Feb 11	vsPEPP	W 88-60	-24.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 148
Feb 14	@PAC	W 72-61	-7.5	W +3.5	135.5	U 133
Feb 18	@SEA	W 72-70	-9.5	L −7.5	133.5	O 142
Feb 21	@WSU	W 83-67	-8.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 150
Feb 25	vsSCU	W 86-67	-5.5	W +13.5	153.5	U 153
Feb 28	vsGONZ	W 70-59	+2.5	W +13.5	143.5	U 129
Mar 9	vsSCU	L 71-76	-4.5	L −9.5	150.5	U 147
Mar 19	vsTA&M	L 50-63	-2.5	L −15.5	149.5	U 113

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

STMN

W 84-58

+12.5

UTC

W 87-66

+5.5

OHIO

W 90-60

+12.5

UNT

W 80-49

+16.5

ARST

W 85-72

−7.5

WICH

W 70-65

−4.5

W 77-66

+5.5

VAN

L 71-96

−20.5

DAV

W 70-61

+0.5

BOIS

L 67-68

−3.5

FAU

W 88-75

−0.5

UNI

W 63-58

−6.5

LMU

W 78-73

−4.5

PEPP

W 72-45

+7.5

PORT

W 78-57

+2.5

SEA

W 93-76

+5.5

WSU

W 88-82

−9.5

W 82-68

+8.5

SCU

L 54-62

−6.5

ORST

W 81-51

+10.5

PORT

W 75-69

−8.5

GONZ

L 65-73

+0.5

USD

W 87-60

+6.5

W 79-54

+13.5

PEPP

W 88-60

+3.5

PAC

W 72-61

+3.5

SEA

W 72-70

−7.5

WSU

W 83-67

+7.5

SCU

W 86-67

+13.5

GONZ

W 70-59

+13.5

SCU

L 71-76

−9.5

TA&M

L 50-63

−15.5

covered 19didn’t cover 13avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

STMN

W 84-58

+0.5

UTC

W 87-66

+7.5

OHIO

W 90-60

+5.5

UNT

W 80-49

+0.5

ARST

W 85-72

+7.5

WICH

W 70-65

−4.5

W 77-66

−1.5

VAN

L 71-96

+17.5

DAV

W 70-61

−6.5

BOIS

L 67-68

−4.5

FAU

W 88-75

+17.5

UNI

W 63-58

−11.5

LMU

W 78-73

+7.5

PEPP

W 72-45

−24.5

PORT

W 78-57

−11.5

SEA

W 93-76

+29.5

WSU

W 88-82

+26.5

W 82-68

+8.5

SCU

L 54-62

−36.5

ORST

W 81-51

−10.5

PORT

W 75-69

−0.5

GONZ

L 65-73

−6.5

USD

W 87-60

−1.5

W 79-54

−9.5

PEPP

W 88-60

+3.5

PAC

W 72-61

−2.5

SEA

W 72-70

+8.5

WSU

W 83-67

+0.5

SCU

W 86-67

−0.5

GONZ

W 70-59

−14.5

SCU

L 71-76

−3.5

TA&M

L 50-63

−36.5

over 14under 18avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

New Mexico

36 games played

Straight up

25-11

69% wins

Against the spread

20-16

56% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

23-13

64% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

25-1169%

W W W L L W W W W W W L W W W W L W W W W L L W W W L W L L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1656%

L W L L L W L W W W W L W W W W W L L W L L L W W L L W L W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

23-1364%

U U O O O O O O O U O U U O O O O O O U O U O U O O U O O O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsETAM	W 76-54	-22.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 8	vsUTA	W 74-56	-13.5	W +4.5	145.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsUCR	W 82-68	-19.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 150
Nov 15	@NMSU	L 68-76	-3.5	L −11.5	139.5	O 144
Nov 20	vsNEB	L 72-84	+8.5	L −3.5	151.5	O 156
Nov 21	vsMSST	W 80-78	+6.5	W +8.5	151.5	O 158
Nov 26	vsALST	W 93-87	-19.5	L −13.5	148.5	O 180
Dec 6	vsSCU	W 98-71	-1.5	W +25.5	153.5	O 169
Dec 10	@VCU	W 81-78	+8.5	W +11.5	157.5	O 159
Dec 14	vsFGCU	W 75-59	-15.5	W +0.5	159.5	U 134
Dec 20	vsSJSU	W 88-65	-16.5	W +6.5	152.5	O 153
Dec 30	@BOIS	L 53-62	+5.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 115
Jan 3	vsWYO	W 78-58	-7.5	W +12.5	151.5	U 136
Jan 6	@CSU	W 80-70	-1.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 150
Jan 10	@AF	W 91-49	-16.5	W +25.5	138.5	O 140
Jan 13	vsGCU	W 87-64	-6.5	W +16.5	146.5	O 151
Jan 17	@SDSU	L 79-83	+5.5	W +1.5	148.5	O 162
Jan 21	vsFRES	W 83-74	-15.5	L −6.5	151.5	O 157
Jan 24	vsNEV	W 80-73	-8.5	L −1.5	150.5	O 153
Jan 27	@UNLV	W 89-61	-3.5	W +24.5	155.5	U 150
Jan 31	@SJSU	W 90-80	-15.5	L −5.5	148.5	O 170
Feb 4	vsUSU	L 66-86	-1.5	L −21.5	156.5	U 152
Feb 7	vsBOIS	L 90-91	-4.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 181
Feb 11	@GCU	W 70-64	+1.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 134
Feb 17	vsAF	W 98-61	-28.5	W +8.5	148.5	O 159
Feb 21	@FRES	W 80-78	-9.5	L −7.5	156.5	O 158
Feb 24	@NEV	L 60-67	+1.5	L −5.5	148.5	U 127
Feb 28	vsSDSU	W 81-76	-1.5	W +3.5	150.5	O 157
Mar 4	vsCSU	L 74-82	-8.5	L −16.5	150.5	O 156
Mar 7	@USU	L 90-94	+7.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 184
Mar 12	vsSJSU	W 93-77	-16.5	L −0.5	154.5	O 170
Mar 13	vsSDSU	L 62-64	+2.5	W +0.5	150.5	U 126
Mar 18	vsSHSU	W 107-83	-11.5	W +12.5	162.5	O 190
Mar 22	vsGW	W 86-61	-6.5	W +18.5	161.5	U 147
Mar 24	vsJOES	W 84-69	-10.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 153
Apr 2	vsTLSA	L 69-74	-2.5	L −7.5	161.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ETAM

W 76-54

−0.5

UTA

W 74-56

+4.5

UCR

W 82-68

−5.5

NMSU

L 68-76

−11.5

NEB

L 72-84

−3.5

MSST

W 80-78

+8.5

ALST

W 93-87

−13.5

SCU

W 98-71

+25.5

VCU

W 81-78

+11.5

FGCU

W 75-59

+0.5

SJSU

W 88-65

+6.5

BOIS

L 53-62

−3.5

WYO

W 78-58

+12.5

CSU

W 80-70

+8.5

W 91-49

+25.5

GCU

W 87-64

+16.5

SDSU

L 79-83

+1.5

FRES

W 83-74

−6.5

NEV

W 80-73

−1.5

UNLV

W 89-61

+24.5

SJSU

W 90-80

−5.5

USU

L 66-86

−21.5

BOIS

L 90-91

−5.5

GCU

W 70-64

+7.5

W 98-61

+8.5

FRES

W 80-78

−7.5

NEV

L 60-67

−5.5

SDSU

W 81-76

+3.5

CSU

L 74-82

−16.5

USU

L 90-94

+3.5

SJSU

W 93-77

−0.5

SDSU

L 62-64

+0.5

SHSU

W 107-83

+12.5

W 86-61

+18.5

JOES

W 84-69

+4.5

TLSA

L 69-74

−7.5

covered 20didn’t cover 16avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ETAM

W 76-54

−13.5

UTA

W 74-56

−15.5

UCR

W 82-68

+8.5

NMSU

L 68-76

+4.5

NEB

L 72-84

+4.5

MSST

W 80-78

+6.5

ALST

W 93-87

+31.5

SCU

W 98-71

+15.5

VCU

W 81-78

+1.5

FGCU

W 75-59

−25.5

SJSU

W 88-65

+0.5

BOIS

L 53-62

−31.5

WYO

W 78-58

−15.5

CSU

W 80-70

+6.5

W 91-49

+1.5

GCU

W 87-64

+4.5

SDSU

L 79-83

+13.5

FRES

W 83-74

+5.5

NEV

W 80-73

+2.5

UNLV

W 89-61

−5.5

SJSU

W 90-80

+21.5

USU

L 66-86

−4.5

BOIS

L 90-91

+28.5

GCU

W 70-64

−14.5

W 98-61

+10.5

FRES

W 80-78

+1.5

NEV

L 60-67

−21.5

SDSU

W 81-76

+6.5

CSU

L 74-82

+5.5

USU

L 90-94

+28.5

SJSU

W 93-77

+15.5

SDSU

L 62-64

−24.5

SHSU

W 107-83

+27.5

W 86-61

−14.5

JOES

W 84-69

−2.5

TLSA

L 69-74

−18.5

over 23under 13avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

New Mexico has the better starters

Position by position: Saint Mary's 0, New Mexico 3, even 2

Saint Mary'sBetterNew Mexico

G J. Dent12.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 5.7 ast Score 83

Even

G J. Hall16.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 90

G J. Dent-Smith TR8.2 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 53

UNMSmall

G U. Tenette10.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.9 ast Score 73

G R. Hawke2.5 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 21

UNMSmall

G C. Howell6 pts · 3 reb · 3.5 ast Score 54

F T. Ndong TR4.9 pts · 6.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 73

UNMSmall

G H. Mayes TR11.1 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 93

F K. Gad1.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.8 ast Not ranked

No call

F T. Vahlberg Fasasi TR12.3 pts · 4.2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 72

Saint Mary'sBetterNew Mexico

SMC offense129th of 366 · -3.5

Even

UNM defense103rd of 366 · -0.9

SMC defense44th of 366 · +2.5

Even

UNM offense72nd of 366 · +1.6

Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players

UNMBig

Backcourt+5.6 · 4 players

Frontcourt+0.5 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt+1.0 · 1 player

Bench-0.6 · 4 players

UNMSmall

Bench+0.9 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestSMC betterUNM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Saint Mary's

Guards

J. Dent37 minJ. Dent-Smith20 min · TRR. Hawke11 minL. Fennell8 min · TRM. Juzenas6 minD. BivinsNew

Forwards

T. Ndong18 min · TRK. Gad10 minV. Zougris9 min · TRJ. LewisNewT. MacLeanNew

Centers

S. Altuntas8 min · TRJ. GardnerNewF. PavelyNew

New Mexico

Guards

J. Hall31 minU. Tenette28 minC. Howell25 minH. Mayes24 min · TRD. HallNew

Forwards

T. Vahlberg Fasasi27 min · TRR. Petraitis17 min · TRF. GraniNewI. SuljanovicNewN. MuriithiNewB. SchuchNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SMC76.8 #125

UNM80.8 #52

Points per possession

SMC1.17 #39

UNM1.14 #70

Pace (possessions)

SMC66.2 #305

UNM70.7 #87

Shooting

Effective FG%

SMC52.8 #109

UNM53.5 #82

3-point %

SMC38.7 #7

UNM35.6 #83

3-point attempt rate

SMC36.4 #242

UNM41.9 #136

Free throw rate

SMC35.5 #162

UNM35.8 #160

Possessions

Turnover rate

SMC16.9 #201

UNM14.9 #59

Offensive rebound rate

SMC37.5 #12

UNM30.6 #176

Assists per game

SMC15.1 #82

UNM14.8 #104

Defense

Points allowed

SMC65.2 #7

UNM71.6 #96

Points allowed per possession

SMC0.98 #14

UNM1.01 #36

Opponent effective FG%

SMC46.8 #20

UNM49.5 #84

Opponent 3-point %

SMC31.4 #40

UNM30.5 #20

Turnovers forced

SMC15.1 #274

UNM19.0 #50

Defensive rebound rate

SMC76.1 #4

UNM72.3 #57

Steals per game

SMC5.5 #302

UNM7.9 #43

Blocks per game

SMC3.6 #129

UNM2.7 #274

SMC		UNM
Scoring
76.8 #125	Points per game	80.8 #52
1.17 #39	Points per possession	1.14 #70
66.2 #305	Pace (possessions)	70.7 #87
Shooting
52.8 #109	Effective FG%	53.5 #82
38.7 #7	3-point %	35.6 #83
36.4 #242	3-point attempt rate	41.9 #136
35.5 #162	Free throw rate	35.8 #160
Possessions
16.9 #201	Turnover rate	14.9 #59
37.5 #12	Offensive rebound rate	30.6 #176
15.1 #82	Assists per game	14.8 #104
Defense
65.2 #7	Points allowed	71.6 #96
0.98 #14	Points allowed per possession	1.01 #36
46.8 #20	Opponent effective FG%	49.5 #84
31.4 #40	Opponent 3-point %	30.5 #20
15.1 #274	Turnovers forced	19.0 #50
76.1 #4	Defensive rebound rate	72.3 #57
5.5 #302	Steals per game	7.9 #43
3.6 #129	Blocks per game	2.7 #274

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Saint Mary's

26-6 in 2025-26 overall · 16-3 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Texas A&M50–63
Lvs Santa Clara71–76
Wvs Gonzaga70–59
Wvs Santa Clara86–67
W@ Washington St83–67

A week or more of rest.

New Mexico

25-11 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Tulsa69–74
Wvs Saint Joseph's84–69
Wvs G Washington86–61
Wvs Sam Houston107–83
Lvs San Diego St62–64

A week or more of rest.

Saint Mary's Gaels at New Mexico Lobos

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Saint Mary's

New Mexico

New Mexico has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Saint Mary's

New Mexico