1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 15
  3. MER @ UNM
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 15

Mercer Bears at New Mexico Lobos

The Pit · at New Mexico
#242MERMercer
@
#82UNMNew Mexico
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MERThis seasonUNM
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNM 86–68 · win probability UNM 95%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 154.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UNM has more of the edges

MER 1, UNM 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UNMBig
UNM offense vs MER defense
Offense 72nd of 366 against a defense 268th, on the model’s ratings
UNMBig
Three-pointers
MER hits 35.6% and allows 36.2%; UNM hits 35.6% and allows 30.5%. Threes are 39.2% and 41.9% of their shots
UNMBig
MER offense vs UNM defense
Offense 223rd of 366 against a defense 103rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MER has played the 193rd-hardest schedule, UNM the 97th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UNMSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: MER 53.1 and allows 52.5; UNM 53.5 and allows 49.5
UNMSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MER 32.6%, UNM 30.6%. Defensive: MER 66.8%, UNM 72.3%
MERSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MER 39.2, UNM 35.8. Allowed: MER 29.7, UNM 33.3
UNMSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MER 15.0%, UNM 14.9%. Forced: MER 17.0%, UNM 19.0%
UNMSmall
Home court
UNM at home. This season: UNM 0-0 at home, MER 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: MER plays 69.5 a game (148th fastest), UNM 70.7 (87th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MER 28%, UNM 42%. Transfers in: MER 2, UNM 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UNM -18.3—
Total—154.4—
Projected score—MER 68 · UNM 86.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUNM -10.8—
1H total72.2—
1H projected scoreMER 30.7 · UNM 41.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

New Mexico has the better starters

Position by position: Mercer 0, New Mexico 3, even 2
MercerBetterNew Mexico
G B. Shoulders9.5 pts · 6.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 41
UNMBig
G J. Hall16.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 90
G Q. Perkins8.7 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 22
UNMBig
G U. Tenette10.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.9 ast Score 73
F K. Steele TR8 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 62
Even
G C. Howell6 pts · 3 reb · 3.5 ast Score 54
F M. Mabor Makoi TR1.4 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 10
UNMBig
G H. Mayes TR11.1 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 93
F P. Padegimas NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F T. Vahlberg Fasasi TR12.3 pts · 4.2 reb · 2.4 ast Score 72
MercerBetterNew Mexico
MER offense223rd of 366 · -6.8
UNMSmall
UNM defense103rd of 366 · -0.9
MER defense268th of 366 · -6.8
UNMBig
UNM offense72nd of 366 · +1.6
Backcourt-3.4 · 2 players
UNMBig
Backcourt+5.6 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.6 · 3 players
UNMSmall
Frontcourt+1.0 · 1 player
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+0.9 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestMER betterUNM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Mercer
Guards
B. Shoulders32 minQ. Perkins24 minM. KoveosNewD. BarrNewH. LyttleNewK. LamonteNew
Forwards
K. Steele21 min · TRM. Mabor Makoi8 min · TRP. PadegimasNewS. MayhughNewD. KovacevicNew
New Mexico
Guards
J. Hall31 minU. Tenette28 minC. Howell25 minH. Mayes24 min · TRD. HallNew
Forwards
T. Vahlberg Fasasi27 min · TRR. Petraitis17 min · TRF. GraniNewI. SuljanovicNewN. MuriithiNewB. SchuchNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MERUNM
Scoring
80.1 #65Points per game80.8 #52
1.15 #55Points per possession1.14 #70
69.5 #148Pace (possessions)70.7 #87
Shooting
53.1 #98Effective FG%53.5 #82
35.6 #873-point %35.6 #83
39.2 #1883-point attempt rate41.9 #136
39.2 #74Free throw rate35.8 #160
Possessions
15.0 #67Turnover rate14.9 #59
32.6 #102Offensive rebound rate30.6 #176
12.7 #240Assists per game14.8 #104
Defense
77.8 #263Points allowed71.6 #96
1.12 #273Points allowed per possession1.01 #36
52.5 #242Opponent effective FG%49.5 #84
36.2 #311Opponent 3-point %30.5 #20
17.0 #155Turnovers forced19.0 #50
66.8 #303Defensive rebound rate72.3 #57
7.1 #115Steals per game7.9 #43
3.2 #186Blocks per game2.7 #274
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mercer

16-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs W Carolina73–77
  • Wvs ETSU82–76
  • L@ W Carolina74–78
  • Wvs Samford89–86
  • Lvs Chattanooga90–94

A week or more of rest.

New Mexico

25-11 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Mountain West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tulsa69–74
  • Wvs Saint Joseph's84–69
  • Wvs G Washington86–61
  • Wvs Sam Houston107–83
  • Lvs San Diego St62–64

A week or more of rest.