The Citadel Bulldogs at Mercer Bears: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 7, 7:00 PM ETHawkins Arena · at Mercer · Conference game

Final

#242MERMercer101▲ winner

Closing lineMER -16.5✓ MER covered by 21.5

Closing total147.5Over by 16.5

Season records: The Citadel and Mercer
CIT	This season	MER
0-12	Record	5-7
4-8	ATS	10-2
5-7	O/U	5-7

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CIT 67–82 MER · ✓ MER (91%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CIT	31	32	63
MER	54	47	101

1st half: CIT 31, MER 54 (MER by 23). The model had MER by 9.0 and a total of 69.5 (actual 85).

Team stats

CIT		MER
22-50 44%	Field goals	34-58 59%
10-26 38%	3-pointers	15-28 54%
9-12 75%	Free throws	18-20 90%
22 9 off	Rebounds	31 12 off
10	Assists	16
6	Steals	9
4	Blocks	3
18	Turnovers	11
16	Fouls	14
22	Points in paint	32
7	Fast-break points	14

Players

CIT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Logan Applegate G	31	16	3	1	6-12	4-9
Braxton Williams F	25	9	2	1	3-8	1-4
Sola Adebisi F	25	0	3	0	0-2	0-1
Carter Kingsbury G	23	6	1	0	2-4	0-1
Christian Moore F	23	12	2	1	5-6	2-3
Bench
Eze Wali G	24	0	2	4	0-2	0-2
Simeon German F	14	5	2	1	2-6	0-0
Dante Kearse G	14	10	0	0	3-6	2-4
Marcos Gonzales G	10	5	0	1	1-3	1-2
Gabe Hernandez G	9	0	1	1	0-1	0-0
Cassius Bonjasky F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Aidan Alexander, Jameson Heck, Jack Walter, Rowan Irelan, Keynan Davis, Chase Williams, Logan Menefee

MER	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Armani Mighty C	27	18	11	1	7-10	0-0
Baraka Okojie G	25	14	0	5	4-5	2-2
Zaire Williams G	22	9	1	3	3-7	3-6
Brady Shoulders G	21	5	2	4	1-3	0-0
Kyle Cuffe Jr. G	20	11	1	0	3-5	2-3
Bench
Quinton Perkins II G	22	18	0	2	6-10	4-7
Tristan Gross G	21	11	1	1	5-6	1-2
Connor Serven F	19	6	5	0	2-3	0-0
Bendji Pierre F	13	6	0	0	2-5	2-4
Braeden Carlsen G	2	0	0	0	0-2	0-2
Jaydon Cole G	2	3	0	0	1-2	1-2
Pero Zubac F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Alex Koch F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
TJ Grant G	2	0	2	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: NJ Nganga, Petras Padegimas

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MER -16.5	MER -15.3	CIT +1.2	L MER covered
Total	147.5	148.4	Over 0.9	W Over
Projected score	—	CIT 66.6 · MER 81.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MER -9.0	MER -23.0
1H total	69.5	85
1H projected score	CIT 30.3 · MER 39.3	CIT 31 · MER 54

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIT WWLLW	4-8	33%	3-3	4-8
MER WLWWW	10-2	83%	3-0	3-0

Venue/role: CIT away, as underdog; MER home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIT UOUUO	5-7	42%	0-12
MER UUOUU	5-7	42%	5-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIT	0-10 0%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
MER	4-6 40%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22

CIT 2–8 MERMER leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · MER has won the last 4 meetings · CIT 2-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 19, 2024-25	MER 62 @ CIT 52	CIT +7.5	MER W
Jan 29, 2024-25	CIT 46 @ MER 80	MER -13.5	MER W
Mar 8, 2023-24	CIT 76 vs MER 84	MER -5.5	MER W
Feb 21, 2023-24	CIT 78 @ MER 87	MER -7.5	MER W
Jan 24, 2023-24	MER 66 @ CIT 68	CIT -1.5	CIT W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

The Citadel

12 games played

Straight up

0-12

0% wins

Against the spread

4-8

33% covers · avg −4.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-7

42% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-120%

L L L L L L L L L L L L

12 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-833%

L L L L L L W W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-742%

U O O U U U O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@BC	L 47-76	+15.5	L −13.5	144.5	U 123
Nov 10	vsCHSO	L 86-96	+2.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 182
Nov 14	@WGA	L 92-100	+6.5	L −1.5	150.5	O 192
Nov 24	vsBELL	L 58-70	+3.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 128
Nov 26	vsHCU	L 65-72	+1.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 137
Nov 30	vsPRES	L 41-69	+8.5	L −19.5	133.5	U 110
Dec 4	@DAV	L 63-79	+18.5	W +2.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 13	@SC	L 55-71	+22.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 126
Dec 17	@COFC	L 78-82	+17.5	W +13.5	146.5	O 160
Dec 20	@RICH	L 56-80	+18.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 136
Dec 30	vsETSU	L 49-74	+12.5	L −12.5	140.5	U 123
Jan 3	vsWOF	L 86-95	+9.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 181

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 47-76

−13.5

CHSO

L 86-96

−7.5

WGA

L 92-100

−1.5

BELL

L 58-70

−8.5

HCU

L 65-72

−5.5

PRES

L 41-69

−19.5

DAV

L 63-79

+2.5

L 55-71

+6.5

COFC

L 78-82

+13.5

RICH

L 56-80

−5.5

ETSU

L 49-74

−12.5

WOF

L 86-95

+0.5

covered 4didn’t cover 8avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 47-76

−21.5

CHSO

L 86-96

+36.5

WGA

L 92-100

+41.5

BELL

L 58-70

−28.5

HCU

L 65-72

−0.5

PRES

L 41-69

−23.5

DAV

L 63-79

+4.5

L 55-71

−15.5

COFC

L 78-82

+13.5

RICH

L 56-80

−10.5

ETSU

L 49-74

−17.5

WOF

L 86-95

+36.5

over 5under 7avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Mercer

12 games played

Straight up

5-7

42% wins

Against the spread

10-2

83% covers · avg +3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-7

42% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-742%

L W L W W W W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-283%

W W L W W W W W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-742%

U O O O U O U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TENN	L 61-76	+28.5	W +13.5	143.5	U 137
Nov 9	vsLIP	W 92-77	-3.5	W +11.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 15	@WIN	L 69-105	+2.5	L −33.5	162.5	O 174
Nov 22	@EKU	W 95-83	+4.5	W +16.5	163.5	O 178
Nov 26	vsAPP	W 75-67	-6.5	W +1.5	142.5	U 142
Nov 29	@ELON	W 91-84	+2.5	W +9.5	159.5	O 175
Dec 2	vsGAST	W 78-67	-10.5	W +0.5	155.5	U 145
Dec 13	@CLEM	L 63-70	+22.5	W +15.5	152.5	U 133
Dec 17	@UCF	L 63-81	+16.5	L −1.5	160.5	U 144
Dec 20	@WSU	L 78-84	+7.5	W +1.5	151.5	O 162
Dec 31	@FUR	L 72-74	+2.5	W +0.5	154.5	U 146
Jan 3	@ETSU	L 71-77	+7.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TENN

L 61-76

+13.5

LIP

W 92-77

+11.5

WIN

L 69-105

−33.5

EKU

W 95-83

+16.5

APP

W 75-67

+1.5

ELON

W 91-84

+9.5

GAST

W 78-67

+0.5

CLEM

L 63-70

+15.5

UCF

L 63-81

−1.5

WSU

L 78-84

+1.5

FUR

L 72-74

+0.5

ETSU

L 71-77

+1.5

covered 10didn’t cover 2avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TENN

L 61-76

−6.5

LIP

W 92-77

+11.5

WIN

L 69-105

+11.5

EKU

W 95-83

+14.5

APP

W 75-67

−0.5

ELON

W 91-84

+15.5

GAST

W 78-67

−10.5

CLEM

L 63-70

−19.5

UCF

L 63-81

−16.5

WSU

L 78-84

+10.5

FUR

L 72-74

−8.5

ETSU

L 71-77

−0.5

over 5under 7avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The Citadel Bulldogs at Mercer Bears

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

The Citadel

Mercer

The Citadel

Mercer