Freedom Hall (TN) · at ETSU · Conference game
Closing line
ETSU -16.5✓ VMI covered by 2.5
ETSU -16.5✓ VMI covered by 2.5Closing total146.5Over by 1.5
 VMI | This season | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| 3-9 | Record | 8-5 |
| 5-7 | ATS | 7-6 |
| 5-7 | O/U | 6-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: VMI 65–82 ETSU · ✓ ETSU (93%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VMI | 30 | 37 | 67 |
| ETSU | 41 | 40 | 81 |
1st half: VMI 30, ETSU 41 (ETSU by 11). The model had ETSU by 10.1 and a total of 69.2 (actual 71).
Team stats
| VMI | ETSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-59 37% | Field goals | 29-52 56% |
| 6-26 23% | 3-pointers | 8-20 40% |
| 17-27 63% | Free throws | 15-19 79% |
| 30 11 off | Rebounds | 34 5 off |
| 8 | Assists | 17 |
| 6 | Steals | 4 |
| 3 | Blocks | 3 |
| 6 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 20 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 5 |
Players
| VMI | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Johnson F | 37 | 30 | 9 | 0 | 9-17 | 6-10 |
| Linus Holmstrom G | 31 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2-13 | 0-8 |
| AJ Clark G | 28 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Tan Yildizoglu G | 24 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 4-8 | 0-3 |
| Alexander Daushvili F | 22 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Mario Tatum Jr. G | 30 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3-9 | 0-3 |
| Kaden Stuckey F | 18 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Cal Liston F | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Walker Andrews G | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Robert Peters, Mason Hagedorn, Rickey Bradley Jr., Jaylen Pazon, Branford Edmonds III, Mason Lawson
| ETSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Barkley F | 36 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 7-9 | 1-2 |
| Brian Taylor II G | 35 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 3-8 | 0-4 |
| Cam Morris III F | 32 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 10-12 | 1-1 |
| Allen Strothers G | 24 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Jordan McCullum F | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Maki Johnson G | 26 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3-6 | 3-6 |
| Jaylen Smith G | 24 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 4-9 | 3-6 |
| Gabe Sisk G | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Henry Sisemore F | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Joseph Carter G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Maddox Huff, Frederico Whitaker Jr., Isaiah Sutherland, Brayden Crump, Milton Matthews III
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenETSU -18.5
2 → VMI
CloseETSU -16.5
2 pts toward VMI
Total
Open149.5
▼ 3
Close146.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
VMI +1000 · ETSU -1800
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ETSU -18.5 · closed ETSU -16.5 · moved 2 toward VMImodel ETSU -17
model ETSU -17
Opened 149.5 · closed 146.5 · moved 3 downmodel 147.5
model 147.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | ETSU -16.5 | ETSU -17.1 | ETSU +0.6 | L VMI covered |
| Total | 146.5 | 147.7 | Over 1.2 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | VMI 65.3 · ETSU 82.4 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | ETSU -10.1 | ETSU -11.0 |
| 1H total | 69.2 | 71 |
| 1H projected score | VMI 29.5 · ETSU 39.6 | VMI 30 · ETSU 41 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VMI | 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
| ETSU | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
VMI 1–8 ETSUETSU leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · ETSU has won the last 7 meetings · VMI 6-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2024-25 | ETSU 62 @ VMI 55 | VMI +6.5 | ETSU W |
| Jan 1, 2024-25 | VMI 69 @ ETSU 84 | ETSU -15.5 | VMI W |
| Mar 8, 2023-24 | VMI 66 vs ETSU 98 | ETSU -17.5 | ETSU W |
| Feb 21, 2023-24 | VMI 69 @ ETSU 82 | ETSU -19.5 | VMI W |
| Jan 24, 2023-24 | ETSU 74 @ VMI 73 | VMI +10.5 | VMI W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
VMI
12 games played
Straight up
3-9
25% wins
Against the spread
5-7
42% covers · avg −4.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-7
42% overs · avg −1.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | @ USI | W 78-74 | -2.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 9 | @ MIZ | L 68-106 | +23.5 | L −14.5 | 161.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 15 | vs JAX | L 67-69 | +1.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 19 | @ RICH | L 54-87 | +14.5 | L −18.5 | 152.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 22 | @ STET | L 80-99 | -2.5 | L −21.5 | 148.5 | O 179 |
| Nov 24 | vs BUF | L 70-78 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 150.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 26 | vs BGSU | L 48-81 | +11.5 | L −21.5 | 148.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 29 | @ UCF | L 57-82 | +25.5 | W +0.5 | 159.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 9 | vs L-MD | W 86-70 | +2.5 | W +18.5 | 151.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 21 | @ RAD | L 90-97 | +11.5 | W +4.5 | 158.5 | O 187 |
| Jan 1 | vs SAM | L 58-78 | +6.5 | L −13.5 | 154.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 3 | vs UTC | W 79-71 | +6.5 | W +14.5 | 149.5 | O 150 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
@USI
USIW 78-74
+1.5
9
@MIZ
MIZL 68-106
−14.5
15
vsJAX
JAXL 67-69
−0.5
19
@RICH
RICHL 54-87
−18.5
22
@STET
STETL 80-99
−21.5
24
vsBUF
BUFL 70-78
−2.5
26
vsBGSU
BGSUL 48-81
−21.5
29
@UCF
UCFL 57-82
+0.5
9
vsL-MD
L-MDW 86-70
+18.5
21
@RAD
RADL 90-97
+4.5
1
vsSAM
SAML 58-78
−13.5
3
vsUTC
UTCW 79-71
+14.5
covered 5didn’t cover 7avg −4.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
@USI
USIW 78-74
−1.5
9
@MIZ
MIZL 68-106
+12.5
15
vsJAX
JAXL 67-69
−15.5
19
@RICH
RICHL 54-87
−11.5
22
@STET
STETL 80-99
+30.5
24
vsBUF
BUFL 70-78
−2.5
26
vsBGSU
BGSUL 48-81
−19.5
29
@UCF
UCFL 57-82
−20.5
9
vsL-MD
L-MDW 86-70
+4.5
21
@RAD
RADL 90-97
+28.5
1
vsSAM
SAML 58-78
−18.5
3
vsUTC
UTCW 79-71
+0.5
over 5under 7avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
ETSU
13 games played
Straight up
8-5
62% wins
Against the spread
7-6
54% covers · avg +3.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-7
46% overs · avg +0.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | @ PRES | L 64-68 | -6.5 | L −10.5 | 141.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 12 | vs NKU | W 75-63 | -6.5 | W +5.5 | 142.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 15 | @ UNA | W 78-74 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 21 | vs MORE | W 77-62 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 144.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 23 | vs ULM | W 97-55 | -19.5 | W +22.5 | 146.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 29 | vs CARK | W 80-57 | -12.5 | W +10.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 2 | @ DAY | L 71-88 | +11.5 | L −5.5 | 140.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 5 | vs USA | W 91-65 | -7.5 | W +18.5 | 143.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 12 | @ APSU | L 75-76 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | O 151 |
| Dec 16 | @ UNC | L 58-77 | +17.5 | L −1.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 20 | vs JXST | L 75-81 | -9.5 | L −15.5 | 134.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 30 | @ CIT | W 74-49 | -12.5 | W +12.5 | 140.5 | U 123 |
| Jan 3 | vs MER | W 77-71 | -7.5 | L −1.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
@PRES
PRESL 64-68
−10.5
12
vsNKU
NKUW 75-63
+5.5
15
@UNA
UNAW 78-74
+5.5
21
vsMORE
MOREW 77-62
+4.5
23
vsULM
ULMW 97-55
+22.5
29
vsCARK
CARKW 80-57
+10.5
2
@DAY
DAYL 71-88
−5.5
5
vsUSA
USAW 91-65
+18.5
12
@APSU
APSUL 75-76
−4.5
16
@UNC
UNCL 58-77
−1.5
20
vsJXST
JXSTL 75-81
−15.5
30
@CIT
CITW 74-49
+12.5
3
vsMER
MERW 77-71
−1.5
covered 7didn’t cover 6avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
@PRES
PRESL 64-68
−9.5
12
vsNKU
NKUW 75-63
−4.5
15
@UNA
UNAW 78-74
+6.5
21
vsMORE
MOREW 77-62
−5.5
23
vsULM
ULMW 97-55
+5.5
29
vsCARK
CARKW 80-57
−7.5
2
@DAY
DAYL 71-88
+18.5
5
vsUSA
USAW 91-65
+12.5
12
@APSU
APSUL 75-76
+7.5
16
@UNC
UNCL 58-77
−15.5
20
vsJXST
JXSTL 75-81
+21.5
30
@CIT
CITW 74-49
−17.5
3
vsMER
MERW 77-71
−0.5
over 6under 7avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
VMI
3-9 overall · 1-1 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Chattanooga79–71
- Lvs Samford58–78
- L@ Radford90–97
- Wvs Loyola MD86–70
- L@ UCF57–82
4 days since their last game.
ETSU
8-5 overall · 2-0 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Mercer77–71
- W@ The Citadel74–49
- Lvs Jax State75–81
- L@ North Carolina58–77
- L@ Austin Peay75–76
4 days since their last game.