Mercer Bears at VMI Keydets: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Jan 15, 6:00 PM ETCameron Hall · at VMI · Conference game

#242MERMercer77▲ winner

Final

#320VMIVMI67final

Closing lineMER -8.5✓ MER covered by 1.5

Closing total153.5Under by 9.5

Season records: Mercer and VMI
MER	This season	VMI
7-7	Record	3-11
12-2	ATS	6-8
7-7	O/U	6-8

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MER 82–73 VMI · ✓ MER (79%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MER	36	41	77
VMI	33	34	67

1st half: MER 36, VMI 33 (MER by 3). The model had MER by 5.5 and a total of 72.3 (actual 69).

Team stats

MER		VMI
28-63 44%	Field goals	25-63 40%
3-21 14%	3-pointers	14-36 39%
18-24 75%	Free throws	3-4 75%
50 22 off	Rebounds	26 11 off
12	Assists	14
7	Steals	8
3	Blocks	6
14	Turnovers	12
8	Fouls	22
50	Points in paint	18
6	Fast-break points	6

Players

MER	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Baraka Okojie G	38	11	0	7	2-6	1-2
Brady Shoulders G	36	20	6	0	9-17	0-2
Armani Mighty C	34	18	25	2	8-10	0-0
Zaire Williams G	29	12	5	2	3-12	2-8
Kyle Cuffe Jr. G	22	5	3	0	2-8	0-5
Bench
Connor Serven F	24	11	4	1	4-8	0-2
Tristan Gross G	12	0	1	0	0-2	0-2
Bendji Pierre F	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jaydon Cole, Pero Zubac, NJ Nganga, Braeden Carlsen, Alex Koch, Quinton Perkins II, Petras Padegimas, TJ Grant

VMI	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
TJ Johnson F	35	15	1	0	6-13	3-8
Linus Holmstrom G	32	18	5	2	7-17	4-10
AJ Clark G	29	0	4	3	0-3	0-1
Tan Yildizoglu G	27	4	1	5	2-7	0-3
Cal Liston F	24	12	2	0	4-5	4-5
Bench
Mario Tatum Jr. G	25	7	1	4	2-8	1-5
Kaden Stuckey F	18	5	6	0	2-6	0-0
Walker Andrews G	10	6	4	0	2-4	2-4

Did not play: Alexander Daushvili, Branford Edmonds III, Jaylen Pazon, Mason Lawson, Mason Hagedorn, Robert Peters, Rickey Bradley Jr.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MER -8.5	MER -9.1	MER +0.6	W MER covered
Total	153.5	154.4	Over 0.9	L Under
Projected score	—	MER 81.8 · VMI 72.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MER -5.5	MER -3.0
1H total	72.3	69
1H projected score	MER 38.9 · VMI 33.4	MER 36 · VMI 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MER WWWWW	12-2	86%	7-2	5-0
VMI WLWWL	6-8	43%	2-2	5-7

Venue/role: MER away, as favorite; VMI home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MER OUUOO	7-7	50%	7-7
VMI OUOOU	6-8	43%	3-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MER	5-5 50%	9-1 90%	4-6 40%
VMI	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

MER 6–2 VMIMER leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · MER 5-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 15, 2024-25	VMI 80 @ MER 71	MER -7.5	VMI W
Jan 4, 2024-25	MER 70 @ VMI 67	VMI +5.5	VMI W
Feb 3, 2023-24	VMI 69 @ MER 90	MER -11.5	MER W
Jan 6, 2023-24	MER 86 @ VMI 64	VMI +5.5	MER W
Feb 4, 2022-23	VMI 54 @ MER 80	MER -8.5	MER W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Mercer

14 games played

Straight up

7-7

50% wins

Against the spread

12-2

86% covers · avg +4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-7

50% overs · avg +4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-750%

L W L W W W W L L L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-286%

W W L W W W W W L W W W W W

5 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-750%

U O O O U O U U U O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TENN	L 61-76	+28.5	W +13.5	143.5	U 137
Nov 9	vsLIP	W 92-77	-3.5	W +11.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 15	@WIN	L 69-105	+2.5	L −33.5	162.5	O 174
Nov 22	@EKU	W 95-83	+4.5	W +16.5	163.5	O 178
Nov 26	vsAPP	W 75-67	-6.5	W +1.5	142.5	U 142
Nov 29	@ELON	W 91-84	+2.5	W +9.5	159.5	O 175
Dec 2	vsGAST	W 78-67	-10.5	W +0.5	155.5	U 145
Dec 13	@CLEM	L 63-70	+22.5	W +15.5	152.5	U 133
Dec 17	@UCF	L 63-81	+16.5	L −1.5	160.5	U 144
Dec 20	@WSU	L 78-84	+7.5	W +1.5	151.5	O 162
Dec 31	@FUR	L 72-74	+2.5	W +0.5	154.5	U 146
Jan 3	@ETSU	L 71-77	+7.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 148
Jan 7	vsCIT	W 101-63	-16.5	W +21.5	147.5	O 164
Jan 10	vsWOF	W 109-97	-3.5	W +8.5	156.5	O 206

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TENN

L 61-76

+13.5

LIP

W 92-77

+11.5

WIN

L 69-105

−33.5

EKU

W 95-83

+16.5

APP

W 75-67

+1.5

ELON

W 91-84

+9.5

GAST

W 78-67

+0.5

CLEM

L 63-70

+15.5

UCF

L 63-81

−1.5

WSU

L 78-84

+1.5

FUR

L 72-74

+0.5

ETSU

L 71-77

+1.5

CIT

W 101-63

+21.5

WOF

W 109-97

+8.5

covered 12didn’t cover 2avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TENN

L 61-76

−6.5

LIP

W 92-77

+11.5

WIN

L 69-105

+11.5

EKU

W 95-83

+14.5

APP

W 75-67

−0.5

ELON

W 91-84

+15.5

GAST

W 78-67

−10.5

CLEM

L 63-70

−19.5

UCF

L 63-81

−16.5

WSU

L 78-84

+10.5

FUR

L 72-74

−8.5

ETSU

L 71-77

−0.5

CIT

W 101-63

+16.5

WOF

W 109-97

+49.5

over 7under 7avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

VMI

14 games played

Straight up

3-11

21% wins

Against the spread

6-8

43% covers · avg −4.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-8

43% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-1121%

W L L L L L L L W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-843%

W L L L L L L W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-843%

U O U U O U U U O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@USI	W 78-74	-2.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 9	@MIZ	L 68-106	+23.5	L −14.5	161.5	O 174
Nov 15	vsJAX	L 67-69	+1.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 136
Nov 19	@RICH	L 54-87	+14.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 141
Nov 22	@STET	L 80-99	-2.5	L −21.5	148.5	O 179
Nov 24	vsBUF	L 70-78	+5.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 148
Nov 26	vsBGSU	L 48-81	+11.5	L −21.5	148.5	U 129
Nov 29	@UCF	L 57-82	+25.5	W +0.5	159.5	U 139
Dec 9	vsL-MD	W 86-70	+2.5	W +18.5	151.5	O 156
Dec 21	@RAD	L 90-97	+11.5	W +4.5	158.5	O 187
Jan 1	vsSAM	L 58-78	+6.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 136
Jan 3	vsUTC	W 79-71	+6.5	W +14.5	149.5	O 150
Jan 7	@ETSU	L 67-81	+16.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 148
Jan 10	@FUR	L 48-69	+12.5	L −8.5	149.5	U 117

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USI

W 78-74

+1.5

MIZ

L 68-106

−14.5

JAX

L 67-69

−0.5

RICH

L 54-87

−18.5

STET

L 80-99

−21.5

BUF

L 70-78

−2.5

BGSU

L 48-81

−21.5

UCF

L 57-82

+0.5

L-MD

W 86-70

+18.5

RAD

L 90-97

+4.5

SAM

L 58-78

−13.5

UTC

W 79-71

+14.5

ETSU

L 67-81

+2.5

FUR

L 48-69

−8.5

covered 6didn’t cover 8avg −4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USI

W 78-74

−1.5

MIZ

L 68-106

+12.5

JAX

L 67-69

−15.5

RICH

L 54-87

−11.5

STET

L 80-99

+30.5

BUF

L 70-78

−2.5

BGSU

L 48-81

−19.5

UCF

L 57-82

−20.5

L-MD

W 86-70

+4.5

RAD

L 90-97

+28.5

SAM

L 58-78

−18.5

UTC

W 79-71

+0.5

ETSU

L 67-81

+1.5

FUR

L 48-69

−32.5

over 6under 8avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Mercer Bears at VMI Keydets

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Mercer

VMI

Mercer

VMI