1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 15
  3. NKU @ ETSU
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 15

Northern Kentucky Norse at East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Freedom Hall (TN) · at ETSU
#229NKUN Kentucky
@
#173ETSUETSU
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NKUThis seasonETSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ETSU 77–71 · win probability ETSU 69%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 147.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ETSU has more of the edges

NKU 0, ETSU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ETSUBig
Three-pointers
NKU hits 33.6% and allows 36.6%; ETSU hits 34.7% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 44.9% and 37.8% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: NKU plays 71.5 a game (55th fastest), ETSU 67.0 (279th). Faster games mean more points
ETSUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: NKU 53.2 and allows 54.2; ETSU 55.3 and allows 51.0
ETSUSmall
NKU offense vs ETSU defense
Offense 209th of 366 against a defense 140th, on the model’s ratings
ETSUSmall
Home court
ETSU at home. This season: ETSU 0-0 at home, NKU 0-0 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NKU 16.3%, ETSU 15.2%. Forced: NKU 18.6%, ETSU 18.4%
Even
ETSU offense vs NKU defense
Offense 224th of 366 against a defense 249th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
NKU has played the 289th-hardest schedule, ETSU the 309th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NKU 32.2%, ETSU 28.3%. Defensive: NKU 68.4%, ETSU 72.1%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NKU 26%, ETSU 29%. Transfers in: NKU 4, ETSU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: NKU 35.9, ETSU 35.0. Allowed: NKU 37.2, ETSU 36.4
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ETSU -5.7—
Total—147.3—
Projected score—NKU 70.8 · ETSU 76.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadETSU -3.3—
1H total68.9—
1H projected scoreNKU 32.8 · ETSU 36.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: N Kentucky 2, ETSU 2, even 1
N KentuckyBetterETSU
G E. Elliott4.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.4 ast Score 3
ETSUSmall
G B. Ward TR11.4 pts · 2.1 reb · 3.6 ast Score 29
G E. Acker TR5.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 38
Even
G J. Cooper TR11.2 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 34
F N. Pagotto TR10.5 pts · 5.6 reb · 1 ast Score 68
NKUBig
G T. Hennig TR9.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.5 ast Score 24
F W. Shortt TR6.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 51
NKUSmall
G M. Johnson5.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 28
F D. Rakotonanahary3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 25
ETSUSmall
F J. McCullum7.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 49
N KentuckyBetterETSU
NKU offense209th of 366 · -6.3
ETSUSmall
ETSU defense140th of 366 · -2.9
NKU defense249th of 366 · -6.5
Even
ETSU offense224th of 366 · -6.9
Backcourt-5.4 · 2 players
NKUSmall
Backcourt-7.6 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.2 · 3 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player
Bench-2.4 · 3 players
Even
Bench-1.5 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestNKU betterETSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
N Kentucky
Guards
E. Elliott29 minE. Acker19 min · TRB. Davis-Ray7 min · TRB. Darbyshire6 minJ. ApathjangNewW. FosterNew
Forwards
N. Pagotto27 min · TRW. Shortt20 min · TRD. Rakotonanahary12 minR. Tolliver6 minJ. RuizNewP. Otto MaeNew
ETSU
Guards
B. Ward31 min · TRJ. Cooper31 min · TRT. Hennig25 min · TRM. Johnson22 minT. Mason17 min · TRD. PayneNew
Forwards
J. McCullum22 minB. Crump15 minM. Marion12 min · TRK. CampbellNewE. SmithNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NKUETSU
Scoring
80.9 #47Points per game76.8 #121
1.13 #81Points per possession1.15 #59
71.5 #55Pace (possessions)67.0 #279
Shooting
53.2 #93Effective FG%55.3 #33
33.6 #1933-point %34.7 #132
44.9 #713-point attempt rate37.8 #216
35.9 #158Free throw rate35.0 #180
Possessions
16.3 #158Turnover rate15.2 #79
32.2 #117Offensive rebound rate28.3 #252
15.5 #65Assists per game13.9 #154
Defense
78.7 #284Points allowed70.1 #61
1.10 #225Points allowed per possession1.04 #77
54.2 #305Opponent effective FG%51.0 #161
36.6 #333Opponent 3-point %32.9 #110
18.6 #66Turnovers forced18.4 #79
68.4 #236Defensive rebound rate72.1 #64
8.3 #25Steals per game8.6 #16
3.5 #134Blocks per game3.3 #180
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Kentucky

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-11 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Wright St90–103
  • Wvs Green Bay96–76
  • W@ Oakland85–84
  • Lvs Wright St91–92
  • W@ Cleveland St81–70

A week or more of rest.

ETSU

21-11 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Furman61–76
  • Wvs W Carolina69–67
  • Wvs The Citadel83–76
  • L@ Mercer76–82
  • Lvs Wofford69–72

A week or more of rest.