Northern Kentucky Norse at Milwaukee Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 9, 8:00 PM ETUW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · at Milwaukee · Conference game

#229NKUN Kentucky85▲ winner

Final

#234MILWMilwaukee67final

Closing lineMILW -1.5✓ NKU covered by 19.5

Closing total157.5Under by 5.5

Season records: N Kentucky and Milwaukee
NKU	This season	MILW
9-5	Record	6-9
7-7	ATS	5-10
9-5	O/U	7-8

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NKU 77–79 MILW · ✗ MILW (57%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NKU	55	30	85
MILW	37	30	67

1st half: NKU 55, MILW 37 (NKU by 18). The model had MILW by 1.2 and a total of 72.7 (actual 92).

Team stats

NKU		MILW
29-65 45%	Field goals	25-56 45%
14-39 36%	3-pointers	6-24 25%
13-16 81%	Free throws	11-19 58%
43 18 off	Rebounds	29 10 off
19	Assists	11
7	Steals	4
1	Blocks	3
9	Turnovers	9
16	Fouls	17
30	Points in paint	34
28	Fast-break points	11

Players

NKU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tae Dozier G	34	13	10	4	6-11	1-5
Ethan Elliott G	33	5	4	8	2-4	1-3
Kael Robinson F	32	29	7	0	9-17	9-13
Dan Gherezgher G	28	6	3	4	2-16	0-12
LJ Wells F	22	5	9	1	2-4	0-1
Bench
Donovan Oday G	23	21	6	2	6-9	3-5
Donovan Rakotonanahary F	15	4	0	0	2-3	0-0
Ryan Tolliver F	10	2	3	0	0-1	0-0
Bryce Darbyshire G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Mitchel Minor G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Addison Archer F	1	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Shawn Nelson, Juanma Ruiz, JJ Apathjang

MILW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Aaron Franklin G	30	10	6	2	4-5	0-0
Isaiah Dorceus G	24	5	0	3	1-4	1-3
Danilo Jovanovich F	16	2	1	1	1-4	0-0
Amar Augillard G	16	11	1	0	3-13	1-7
Esyah Pippa-White G	15	3	2	2	1-5	1-4
Bench
Josh Dixon G	27	14	0	2	7-12	0-4
Stevie Elam G	24	16	7	1	5-8	3-6
Simeon Murchison F	16	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Chandler Jackson F	12	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Sekou Konneh F	11	2	3	0	1-3	0-0
Tate Mackenzie F	8	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Austin Villarreal G	1	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Seth Hubbard, John Lovelace Jr., Ned Renfree, Faizon Fields

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MILW -1.5	MILW -2.1	MILW +0.6	L NKU covered
Total	157.5	155.2	Under 2.3	W Under
Projected score	—	NKU 76.5 · MILW 78.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MILW -1.2	NKU -18.0
1H total	72.7	92
1H projected score	NKU 35.8 · MILW 36.9	NKU 55 · MILW 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NKU LLWLW	7-7	50%	2-4	1-3
MILW WWLLL	5-10	33%	3-3	3-5

Venue/role: NKU away, as underdog; MILW home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NKU UOOUO	9-5	64%	9-5
MILW UUUUO	7-8	47%	6-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NKU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
MILW	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

NKU 2–7 MILWMILW leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · MILW has won the last 4 meetings · NKU 3-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 16, 2024-25	NKU 70 @ MILW 92	MILW -6.5	MILW W
Jan 24, 2024-25	MILW 79 @ NKU 59	NKU -1.5	MILW W
Mar 11, 2023-24	MILW 82 vs NKU 75	NKU -1.5	MILW W
Feb 17, 2023-24	NKU 72 @ MILW 73	MILW -2.5	NKU W
Jan 18, 2023-24	MILW 72 @ NKU 90	NKU -1.5	NKU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Kentucky

14 games played

Straight up

9-5

64% wins

Against the spread

7-7

50% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-5

64% overs · avg +5.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-564%

L L W W W W W L W L L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

7-750%

L L W W W W W L L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

9-564%

O U O U O U O O O U O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@TENN	L 56-95	+27.5	L −11.5	137.5	O 151
Nov 12	@ETSU	L 63-75	+6.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 138
Nov 20	@CMU	W 90-66	+4.5	W +28.5	146.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsEKU	W 82-71	-4.5	W +6.5	156.5	U 153
Nov 26	vsWOF	W 93-83	-3.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 176
Nov 29	vsBU	W 74-65	-7.5	W +1.5	143.5	U 139
Dec 3	vsCLE	W 95-80	-14.5	W +0.5	158.5	O 175
Dec 6	@PFW	L 77-79	+1.5	L −0.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 13	@BELL	W 80-76	-4.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 156
Dec 17	vsOAK	L 77-82	-3.5	L −8.5	163.5	U 159
Dec 21	vsCOFC	L 74-85	-5.5	L −16.5	153.5	O 159
Dec 29	@RMU	W 79-77	-1.5	W +0.5	149.5	O 156
Jan 1	vsIUIN	W 81-72	-13.5	L −4.5	176.5	U 153
Jan 4	vsYSU	W 94-79	-4.5	W +10.5	146.5	O 173

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TENN

L 56-95

−11.5

ETSU

L 63-75

−5.5

CMU

W 90-66

+28.5

EKU

W 82-71

+6.5

WOF

W 93-83

+6.5

W 74-65

+1.5

CLE

W 95-80

+0.5

PFW

L 77-79

−0.5

BELL

W 80-76

−0.5

OAK

L 77-82

−8.5

COFC

L 74-85

−16.5

RMU

W 79-77

+0.5

IUIN

W 81-72

−4.5

YSU

W 94-79

+10.5

covered 7didn’t cover 7avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TENN

L 56-95

+13.5

ETSU

L 63-75

−4.5

CMU

W 90-66

+9.5

EKU

W 82-71

−3.5

WOF

W 93-83

+26.5

W 74-65

−4.5

CLE

W 95-80

+16.5

PFW

L 77-79

+2.5

BELL

W 80-76

+9.5

OAK

L 77-82

−4.5

COFC

L 74-85

+5.5

RMU

W 79-77

+6.5

IUIN

W 81-72

−23.5

YSU

W 94-79

+26.5

over 9under 5avg +5.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Milwaukee

15 games played

Straight up

6-9

40% wins

Against the spread

5-10

33% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-8

47% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-940%

W L W L L L L W L W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-1033%

L L W L W L L L L W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

7-847%

O O O O U U O U U O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHAMP	W 90-86	-5.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 176
Nov 8	@WOF	L 76-86	-3.5	L −13.5	150.5	O 162
Nov 10	vsLR	W 92-72	-3.5	W +16.5	156.5	O 164
Nov 12	@IU	L 70-101	+24.5	L −6.5	165.5	O 171
Nov 14	@TTU	L 63-80	+27.5	W +10.5	165.5	U 143
Nov 22	@WICH	L 58-75	+10.5	L −6.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 29	@AKR	L 81-105	+12.5	L −11.5	166.5	O 186
Dec 6	vsRMU	W 74-72	-4.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 14	vsINST	L 68-70	-2.5	L −4.5	159.5	U 138
Dec 19	vsSDST	W 88-87	+1.5	W +2.5	151.5	O 175
Dec 21	@CLE	W 81-71	-6.5	W +3.5	160.5	U 152
Dec 29	vsPFW	W 77-55	-3.5	W +18.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 30	@WIS	L 60-80	+19.5	L −0.5	157.5	U 140
Jan 1	@WRST	L 70-76	+3.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 146
Jan 5	@GB	L 76-79	-3.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HAMP

W 90-86

−1.5

WOF

L 76-86

−13.5

W 92-72

+16.5

L 70-101

−6.5

TTU

L 63-80

+10.5

WICH

L 58-75

−6.5

AKR

L 81-105

−11.5

RMU

W 74-72

−2.5

INST

L 68-70

−4.5

SDST

W 88-87

+2.5

CLE

W 81-71

+3.5

PFW

W 77-55

+18.5

WIS

L 60-80

−0.5

WRST

L 70-76

−2.5

L 76-79

−6.5

covered 5didn’t cover 10avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HAMP

W 90-86

+29.5

WOF

L 76-86

+11.5

W 92-72

+7.5

L 70-101

+5.5

TTU

L 63-80

−22.5

WICH

L 58-75

−25.5

AKR

L 81-105

+19.5

RMU

W 74-72

−7.5

INST

L 68-70

−21.5

SDST

W 88-87

+23.5

CLE

W 81-71

−8.5

PFW

W 77-55

−24.5

WIS

L 60-80

−17.5

WRST

L 70-76

−1.5

L 76-79

+10.5

over 7under 8avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Northern Kentucky Norse at Milwaukee Panthers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

N Kentucky

Milwaukee

N Kentucky

Milwaukee