1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Dec 15
  3. UIW @ TTU
NCAAB · Tue, Dec 15

Incarnate Word Cardinals at Texas Tech Red Raiders

United Supermarkets Arena · at Texas Tech
#289UIWIncarnate Word
@
#12TTUTexas Tech AP #19
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UIWThis seasonTTU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TTU 93–58 · win probability TTU 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 151.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TTU has more of the edges

UIW 0, TTU 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TTUBig
UIW offense vs TTU defense
Offense 291st of 366 against a defense 12th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UIW has played the 285th-hardest schedule, TTU the 12th. A record against a soft schedule means less
TTUBig
TTU offense vs UIW defense
Offense 12th of 366 against a defense 280th, on the model’s ratings
TTUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UIW 50.2 and allows 54.5; TTU 56.1 and allows 49.7
TTUSmall
Three-pointers
UIW hits 36.1% and allows 34.4%; TTU hits 39.1% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 39.1% and 47.6% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: UIW plays 65.4 a game (335th fastest), TTU 68.2 (222nd). Faster games mean more points
TTUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UIW 32.1%, TTU 33.3%. Defensive: UIW 68.0%, TTU 69.4%
TTUSmall
Home court
TTU at home. This season: TTU 0-0 at home, UIW 0-0 away
TTUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UIW 17%, TTU 45%. Transfers in: UIW 5, TTU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
TTUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UIW 34.0, TTU 27.7. Allowed: UIW 41.6, TTU 31.4
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UIW 17.1%, TTU 15.8%. Forced: UIW 15.8%, TTU 14.8%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TTU -35.3—
Total—151.3—
Projected score—UIW 58 · TTU 93.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTTU -20.9—
1H total70.8—
1H projected scoreUIW 24.9 · TTU 45.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Texas Tech has the better starters

Position by position: Incarnate Word 0, Texas Tech 3, even 2
Incarnate WordBetterTexas Tech
G I. Habib14.4 pts · 3.5 reb · 2.7 ast Score 36
TTUBig
G C. Davis TR20.1 pts · 3.5 reb · 4.6 ast Score 91
G M. Conner TR7.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 6.2 ast Score 19
TTUBig
G D. Atwell13.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 88
G B. McCreesh TR7.4 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.6 ast Score 40
TTUBig
G D. Gibbs-Lawhorn TR20.7 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.5 ast Score 95
F D. Goodwin TR4.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
No call
F J. Toppin21.8 pts · 10.8 reb · 2.1 ast Score 100
F G. Erheriene TR0.8 pts · 0.7 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F D. Williams TR14 pts · 4.6 reb · 2.8 ast Score 76
Incarnate WordBetterTexas Tech
UIW offense291st of 366 · -9.0
TTUBig
TTU defense12th of 366 · +6.6
UIW defense280th of 366 · -7.0
TTUBig
TTU offense12th of 366 · +9.9
Backcourt-5.7 · 3 players
TTUBig
Backcourt+10.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.2 · 2 players
TTUBig
Frontcourt+10.8 · 2 players
Bench-0.1 · 2 players
TTUBig
Bench+7.2 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestUIW betterTTU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Incarnate Word
Guards
I. Habib33 minM. Conner30 min · TRB. McCreesh28 min · TRD. Barbee2 minJ. ThomasNewD. CasonNew
Forwards
D. Goodwin14 min · TRG. Erheriene5 min · TRK. Spencer2 min · TRD. EmetuNewK. IoaneNewT. CollinsNew
Centers
C. PareNew
Texas Tech
Guards
C. Davis39 min · TRD. Atwell35 minD. Gibbs-Lawhorn35 min · TRD. Dennis24 min · TRD. SpearNewA. BarrettNew
Forwards
J. Toppin35 minD. Williams30 min · TRJ. Stillwell28 min · TRJ. Moseley14 minM. Akuentok6 minL. HooverNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UIWTTU
Scoring
70.4 #275Points per game80.3 #62
1.07 #206Points per possession1.18 #35
65.4 #335Pace (possessions)68.2 #222
Shooting
50.2 #228Effective FG%56.1 #21
36.1 #543-point %39.1 #4
39.1 #1903-point attempt rate47.6 #29
34.0 #210Free throw rate27.7 #347
Possessions
17.1 #206Turnover rate15.8 #123
32.1 #120Offensive rebound rate33.3 #82
10.8 #342Assists per game15.7 #59
Defense
75.0 #189Points allowed73.1 #134
1.15 #331Points allowed per possession1.07 #138
54.5 #314Opponent effective FG%49.7 #86
34.4 #214Opponent 3-point %32.1 #67
15.8 #233Turnovers forced14.8 #305
68.0 #260Defensive rebound rate69.4 #186
5.1 #329Steals per game6.0 #239
2.4 #310Blocks per game3.8 #103
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Incarnate Word

9-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs SF Austin68–76
  • Wvs Lamar72–60
  • L@ N'Western St49–54
  • W@ East Texas A&M82–73
  • Lvs LSU N Orleans64–78

A week or more of rest.

Texas Tech

23-11 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Alabama65–90
  • Wvs Akron91–71
  • Lvs Iowa State53–75
  • L@ BYU76–82
  • Lvs TCU65–73

A week or more of rest.