Foster Pavilion · at Baylor · Conference game
Closing line
TTU -1.5✓ TTU covered by 17.5
TTU -1.5✓ TTU covered by 17.5Closing total154.5Over by 10.5
| TTU | This season | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| 14-4 | Record | 10-6 |
| 8-10 | ATS | 7-9 |
| 8-10 | O/U | 10-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TTU 80–78 BAY · ✓ TTU (57%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TTU | 55 | 37 | 92 |
| BAY | 36 | 37 | 73 |
1st half: TTU 55, BAY 36 (TTU by 19). The model had TTU by 1.3 and a total of 74.3 (actual 91).
Team stats
| TTU | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 33-55 60% | Field goals | 28-57 49% |
| 17-27 63% | 3-pointers | 7-21 33% |
| 9-11 82% | Free throws | 10-20 50% |
| 28 5 off | Rebounds | 29 11 off |
| 14 | Assists | 14 |
| 7 | Steals | 10 |
| 1 | Blocks | 2 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| TTU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Anderson G | 38 | 26 | 3 | 6 | 9-15 | 8-10 |
| JT Toppin F | 33 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 10-16 | 0-0 |
| Donovan Atwell G | 31 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 7-10 | 7-10 |
| LeJuan Watts G | 29 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 4-6 | 0-1 |
| Jaylen Petty G | 29 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tyeree Bryan G | 28 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Marial Akuentok F | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Nolan Groves G | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Leon Horner G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Jack Francis G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: LaTrell Hoover, Jazz Henderson Jr., Josiah Moseley, Luke Bamgboye
| BAY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Carr G | 37 | 18 | 9 | 5 | 7-12 | 1-4 |
| Tounde Yessoufou G | 34 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 4-14 | 1-7 |
| Obi Agbim G | 32 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-2 |
| Michael Rataj G | 30 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 3-8 | 1-2 |
| Caden Powell C | 20 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Dan Skillings Jr. G | 23 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 4-8 | 2-4 |
| Isaac Williams IV G | 22 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 4-5 | 2-2 |
| James Nnaji C | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Will Kuykendall, Drew Perry, Mayo Soyoye, Maikcol Perez, Andre Iguodala II, Juslin Bodo Bodo, James Goodis, JJ White
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTTU -1.5
ModelTTU -1.9
Model edgeTTU +0.4
W TTU covered
Total
Market154.5
Model158.6
Model edgeOver 4.1
W Over
Projected score
TTU 80.2 · BAY 78.3
TTU 92 · BAY 73
Win probability
TTU 57%
1st half
Spread
TTU -1.3
TTU -19.0
Total
74.3
91 points
Projected score
TTU 37.8 · BAY 36.5
TTU 55 · BAY 36
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTTU -1.5
no move
CloseTTU -1.5
No change since the open
Total
Open159.5
▼ 5
Close154.5
Down 5 since the open
Moneyline
TTU -135 · BAY +114
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TTU -1.5 · unchangedmodel TTU -2
model TTU -2
Opened 159.5 · closed 154.5 · moved 5 downmodel 158.5
model 158.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TTU | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
| BAY | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
TTU 5–3 BAYTTU leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · TTU has won the last 3 meetings · TTU 4-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2024-25 | BAY 74 vs TTU 76 | TTU -6.5 | BAY W |
| Feb 4, 2024-25 | BAY 59 @ TTU 73 | TTU -7.5 | TTU W |
| Mar 9, 2023-24 | BAY 68 @ TTU 78 | TTU -2.5 | TTU W |
| Feb 6, 2023-24 | TTU 73 @ BAY 79 | BAY -5.5 | BAY W |
| Feb 4, 2022-23 | TTU 62 @ BAY 89 | BAY -9.5 | BAY W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Texas Tech
18 games played
Straight up
14-4
78% wins
Against the spread
8-10
44% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-10
44% overs · avg −1.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs LIN | W 98-60 | -29.5 | W +8.5 | 146.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 7 | vs SHSU | W 98-77 | -31.5 | L −10.5 | 156.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 11 | @ ILL | L 77-81 | +3.5 | L −0.5 | 168.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 14 | vs MILW | W 80-63 | -27.5 | L −10.5 | 165.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 20 | vs WAKE | W 84-83 | -9.5 | L −8.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 21 | vs PUR | L 56-86 | +3.5 | L −26.5 | 153.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 26 | vs NOLA | W 82-50 | -29.5 | W +2.5 | 157.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 30 | vs WYO | W 76-72 | -19.5 | L −15.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 7 | vs LSU | W 82-58 | -5.5 | W +18.5 | 154.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 13 | vs ARK | L 86-93 | -2.5 | L −9.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 16 | vs UNCO | W 101-90 | -25.5 | L −14.5 | 152.5 | O 191 |
| Dec 20 | vs DUKE | W 82-81 | +9.5 | W +10.5 | 152.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 28 | vs WIN | W 87-57 | -17.5 | W +12.5 | 163.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 3 | vs OKST | W 102-80 | -12.5 | W +9.5 | 167.5 | O 182 |
| Jan 6 | @ HOU | L 65-69 | +7.5 | W +3.5 | 142.5 | U 134 |
| Jan 10 | @ COLO | W 73-71 | -5.5 | L −3.5 | 161.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 14 | vs UTAH | W 88-74 | -17.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 17 | vs BYU | W 84-71 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 165.5 | U 155 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsLIN
LINW 98-60
+8.5
7
vsSHSU
SHSUW 98-77
−10.5
11
@ILL
ILLL 77-81
−0.5
14
vsMILW
MILWW 80-63
−10.5
20
vsWAKE
WAKEW 84-83
−8.5
21
vsPUR
PURL 56-86
−26.5
26
vsNOLA
NOLAW 82-50
+2.5
30
vsWYO
WYOW 76-72
−15.5
7
vsLSU
LSUW 82-58
+18.5
13
vsARK
ARKL 86-93
−9.5
16
vsUNCO
UNCOW 101-90
−14.5
20
vsDUKE
DUKEW 82-81
+10.5
28
vsWIN
WINW 87-57
+12.5
3
vsOKST
OKSTW 102-80
+9.5
6
@HOU
HOUL 65-69
+3.5
10
@COLO
COLOW 73-71
−3.5
14
vsUTAH
UTAHW 88-74
−3.5
17
vsBYU
BYUW 84-71
+10.5
covered 8didn’t cover 10avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsLIN
LINW 98-60
+11.5
7
vsSHSU
SHSUW 98-77
+18.5
11
@ILL
ILLL 77-81
−10.5
14
vsMILW
MILWW 80-63
−22.5
20
vsWAKE
WAKEW 84-83
+6.5
21
vsPUR
PURL 56-86
−11.5
26
vsNOLA
NOLAW 82-50
−25.5
30
vsWYO
WYOW 76-72
−4.5
7
vsLSU
LSUW 82-58
−14.5
13
vsARK
ARKL 86-93
+23.5
16
vsUNCO
UNCOW 101-90
+38.5
20
vsDUKE
DUKEW 82-81
+10.5
28
vsWIN
WINW 87-57
−19.5
3
vsOKST
OKSTW 102-80
+14.5
6
@HOU
HOUL 65-69
−8.5
10
@COLO
COLOW 73-71
−17.5
14
vsUTAH
UTAHW 88-74
+2.5
17
vsBYU
BYUW 84-71
−10.5
over 8under 10avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Baylor
16 games played
Straight up
10-6
63% wins
Against the spread
7-9
44% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-6
63% overs · avg +4.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs RGV | W 96-81 | -24.5 | L −9.5 | 154.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 9 | vs WASH | W 78-69 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 156.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 14 | vs TAR | W 94-81 | -23.5 | L −10.5 | 149.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 24 | vs CREI | W 81-74 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 25 | vs SJU | L 81-96 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 159.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 26 | vs SDSU | W 91-81 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 2 | vs SAC | W 110-88 | -29.5 | L −7.5 | 158.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 6 | @ MEM | L 71-78 | -3.5 | L −10.5 | 158.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 10 | vs NORF | W 97-67 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 148.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 19 | vs ALCN | W 113-56 | -35.5 | W +21.5 | 160.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 21 | vs SOU | W 111-67 | -26.5 | W +17.5 | 169.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 3 | @ TCU | L 63-69 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 7 | vs ISU | L 60-70 | +3.5 | L −6.5 | 155.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 10 | vsHOU | L 55-77 | +2.5 | L −19.5 | 142.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 13 | @OKST | W 94-79 | -1.5 | W +13.5 | 165.5 | O 173 |
| Jan 16 | @ KU | L 62-80 | +7.5 | L −10.5 | 156.5 | U 142 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsRGV
RGVW 96-81
−9.5
9
vsWASH
WASHW 78-69
+2.5
14
vsTAR
TARW 94-81
−10.5
24
vsCREI
CREIW 81-74
+3.5
25
vsSJU
SJUL 81-96
−9.5
26
vsSDSU
SDSUW 91-81
+7.5
2
vsSAC
SACW 110-88
−7.5
6
@MEM
MEML 71-78
−10.5
10
vsNORF
NORFW 97-67
+3.5
19
vsALCN
ALCNW 113-56
+21.5
21
vsSOU
SOUW 111-67
+17.5
3
@TCU
TCUL 63-69
−3.5
7
vsISU
ISUL 60-70
−6.5
10
vsHOU
HOUL 55-77
−19.5
13
@OKST
OKSTW 94-79
+13.5
16
@KU
KUL 62-80
−10.5
covered 7didn’t cover 9avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRGV
RGVW 96-81
+22.5
9
vsWASH
WASHW 78-69
−9.5
14
vsTAR
TARW 94-81
+25.5
24
vsCREI
CREIW 81-74
+0.5
25
vsSJU
SJUL 81-96
+17.5
26
vsSDSU
SDSUW 91-81
+23.5
2
vsSAC
SACW 110-88
+39.5
6
@MEM
MEML 71-78
−9.5
10
vsNORF
NORFW 97-67
+15.5
19
vsALCN
ALCNW 113-56
+8.5
21
vsSOU
SOUW 111-67
+8.5
3
@TCU
TCUL 63-69
−22.5
7
vsISU
ISUL 60-70
−25.5
10
vsHOU
HOUL 55-77
−10.5
13
@OKST
OKSTW 94-79
+7.5
16
@KU
KUL 62-80
−14.5
over 10under 6avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Texas Tech
14-4 overall · 4-1 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs BYU84–71
- Wvs Utah88–74
- W@ Colorado73–71
- L@ Houston65–69
- Wvs Oklahoma St102–80
3 days since their last game.
Baylor
10-6 overall · 1-4 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Kansas62–80
- W@ Oklahoma St94–79
- Lvs Houston55–77
- Lvs Iowa State60–70
- L@ TCU63–69
4 days since their last game.