Foster Pavilion · at Baylor
Closing line
BAY -26.5✓ BAY covered by 17.5
BAY -26.5✓ BAY covered by 17.5Closing total169.5Over by 8.5
 SOU | This season | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| 1-7 | Record | 8-2 |
| 4-4 | ATS | 5-5 |
| 6-2 | O/U | 8-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: SOU 73–96 BAY · ✓ BAY (98%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SOU | 31 | 36 | 67 |
| BAY | 40 | 71 | 111 |
1st half: SOU 31, BAY 40 (BAY by 9). The model had BAY by 14.0 and a total of 79.2 (actual 71).
Team stats
| SOU | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-67 40% | Field goals | 37-67 55% |
| 5-18 28% | 3-pointers | 17-32 53% |
| 8-14 57% | Free throws | 20-26 77% |
| 31 12 off | Rebounds | 44 14 off |
| 12 | Assists | 28 |
| 2 | Steals | 6 |
| 4 | Blocks | 7 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 21 | Fouls | 15 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 19 |
Players
| SOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Amboree G | 32 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2-8 | 2-6 |
| Brandon Hardy G | 27 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Terrance Dixon Jr. F | 20 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 4-8 | 0-0 |
| Joe Manning G | 14 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1-5 | 1-3 |
| DaMariee Jones F | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Michael Jacobs G | 29 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 7-15 | 2-3 |
| Malek Abdelgowad F | 19 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 9-14 | 0-0 |
| AJ Barnes F | 18 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-7 | 0-2 |
| Ashton Magee G | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Fazl Oshodi G | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Puoch Dobuol F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Andre Nunley, Jayce Depron, Lionel Bell, Rondae Hill, Trey Shephard, Femi Olaniyan, Keith Lamar
| BAY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obi Agbim G | 34 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 4-7 | 4-6 |
| Cameron Carr G | 33 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 7-17 | 3-10 |
| Michael Rataj G | 32 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2-6 | 0-2 |
| Tounde Yessoufou G | 29 | 28 | 8 | 6 | 8-14 | 3-6 |
| Dan Skillings Jr. G | 27 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6-10 | 4-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Caden Powell C | 22 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Isaac Williams IV G | 18 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 4-6 | 0-1 |
| Will Kuykendall G | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Drew Perry G | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Andre Iguodala II, Juslin Bodo Bodo, James Goodis, JJ White, Mayo Soyoye, Maikcol Perez
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBAY -25.5
1 → BAY
CloseBAY -26.5
1 pt toward BAY
Total
Open164.5
▲ 5
Close169.5
Up 5 since the open
Moneyline
SOU +2000 · BAY -6500
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BAY -25.5 · closed BAY -26.5 · moved 1 toward BAYmodel BAY -23.5
model BAY -23.5
Opened 164.5 · closed 169.5 · moved 5 upmodel 169.5 matches the line
model 169.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | BAY -26.5 | BAY -23.5 | SOU +3.0 | L BAY covered |
| Total | 169.5 | 169.3 | Under 0.2 | L Over |
| Projected score | — | SOU 72.9 · BAY 96.4 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | BAY -14.0 | BAY -9.0 |
| 1H total | 79.2 | 71 |
| 1H projected score | SOU 32.6 · BAY 46.6 | SOU 31 · BAY 40 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SOUlast 8 | 1-7 13% | 4-4 50% | 6-2 75% |
| BAY | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% | 8-2 80% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Southern
8 games played
Straight up
1-7
13% wins
Against the spread
4-4
50% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-2
75% overs · avg +14.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ ARK | L 77-109 | +26.5 | L −5.5 | 150.5 | O 186 |
| Nov 5 | @ MARQ | L 82-100 | +24.5 | W +6.5 | 155.5 | O 182 |
| Nov 18 | @ WASH | L 93-99 | +23.5 | W +17.5 | 157.5 | O 192 |
| Nov 21 | @ SJSU | L 66-80 | +5.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 146 |
| Nov 29 | @ NWST | W 75-73 | -3.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 8 | @ TEX | L 69-95 | +22.5 | L −3.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 10 | @ TXST | L 83-86 | +3.5 | W +0.5 | 142.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 16 | @ CBU | L 67-75 | +12.5 | W +4.5 | 155.5 | U 142 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@ARK
ARKL 77-109
−5.5
5
@MARQ
MARQL 82-100
+6.5
18
@WASH
WASHL 93-99
+17.5
21
@SJSU
SJSUL 66-80
−8.5
29
@NWST
NWSTW 75-73
−1.5
8
@TEX
TEXL 69-95
−3.5
10
@TXST
TXSTL 83-86
+0.5
16
@CBU
CBUL 67-75
+4.5
covered 4didn’t cover 4avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@ARK
ARKL 77-109
+35.5
5
@MARQ
MARQL 82-100
+26.5
18
@WASH
WASHL 93-99
+34.5
21
@SJSU
SJSUL 66-80
−4.5
29
@NWST
NWSTW 75-73
+3.5
8
@TEX
TEXL 69-95
+5.5
10
@TXST
TXSTL 83-86
+26.5
16
@CBU
CBUL 67-75
−13.5
over 6under 2avg +14.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Baylor
10 games played
Straight up
8-2
80% wins
Against the spread
5-5
50% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-2
80% overs · avg +13.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs RGV | W 96-81 | -24.5 | L −9.5 | 154.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 9 | vsWASH | W 78-69 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 156.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 14 | vs TAR | W 94-81 | -23.5 | L −10.5 | 149.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 24 | vs CREI | W 81-74 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 25 | vs SJU | L 81-96 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 159.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 26 | vs SDSU | W 91-81 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 2 | vs SAC | W 110-88 | -29.5 | L −7.5 | 158.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 6 | @ MEM | L 71-78 | -3.5 | L −10.5 | 158.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 10 | vs NORF | W 97-67 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 148.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 19 | vs ALCN | W 113-56 | -35.5 | W +21.5 | 160.5 | O 169 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsRGV
RGVW 96-81
−9.5
9
vsWASH
WASHW 78-69
+2.5
14
vsTAR
TARW 94-81
−10.5
24
vsCREI
CREIW 81-74
+3.5
25
vsSJU
SJUL 81-96
−9.5
26
vsSDSU
SDSUW 91-81
+7.5
2
vsSAC
SACW 110-88
−7.5
6
@MEM
MEML 71-78
−10.5
10
vsNORF
NORFW 97-67
+3.5
19
vsALCN
ALCNW 113-56
+21.5
covered 5didn’t cover 5avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRGV
RGVW 96-81
+22.5
9
vsWASH
WASHW 78-69
−9.5
14
vsTAR
TARW 94-81
+25.5
24
vsCREI
CREIW 81-74
+0.5
25
vsSJU
SJUL 81-96
+17.5
26
vsSDSU
SDSUW 91-81
+23.5
2
vsSAC
SACW 110-88
+39.5
6
@MEM
MEML 71-78
−9.5
10
vsNORF
NORFW 97-67
+15.5
19
vsALCN
ALCNW 113-56
+8.5
over 8under 2avg +13.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Southern
1-7 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ CA Baptist67–75
- L@ Texas St83–86
- L@ Texas69–95
- W@ N'Western St75–73
- L@ San José St66–80
5 days since their last game.
Baylor
8-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Alcorn St113–56
- Wvs Norfolk St97–67
- L@ Memphis71–78
- Wvs Sacramento St110–88
- Wvs San Diego St91–81
2 days since their last game.