Southern Jaguars at Texas Longhorns: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Dec 8, 8:00 PM ETMoody Center · at Texas

#309SOUSouthern69final

Final

#11TEXTexas95▲ winner

Closing lineTEX -22.5✓ TEX covered by 3.5

Closing total158.5Over by 5.5

Season records: Southern and Texas
SOU	This season	TEX
1-4	Record	5-3
2-3	ATS	4-4
4-1	O/U	5-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SOU 71–91 TEX · ✓ TEX (96%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SOU	27	42	69
TEX	46	49	95

1st half: SOU 27, TEX 46 (TEX by 19). The model had TEX by 12.2 and a total of 75.9 (actual 73).

Team stats

SOU		TEX
24-59 41%	Field goals	29-51 57%
5-12 42%	3-pointers	8-20 40%
16-25 64%	Free throws	29-32 91%
27 12 off	Rebounds	37 9 off
10	Assists	17
7	Steals	5
1	Blocks	4
14	Turnovers	13
24	Fouls	23
32	Points in paint	32
15	Fast-break points	15

Players

SOU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cam Amboree G	26	9	1	2	4-9	0-0
Michael Jacobs G	19	11	0	3	4-10	1-1
Ashton Magee G	17	1	4	1	0-2	0-0
Brandon Hardy G	14	6	2	0	2-4	2-2
Terrance Dixon Jr. F	11	5	1	0	2-2	0-0
Bench
Fazl Oshodi G	20	0	0	0	0-3	0-1
Malek Abdelgowad F	18	17	3	0	5-7	2-2
Joe Manning G	18	3	1	1	1-4	0-2
DaMariee Jones F	18	7	5	1	2-6	0-0
Keith Lamar F	16	0	2	2	0-3	0-3
AJ Barnes F	16	10	4	0	4-8	0-1
Lionel Bell C	7	0	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Andre Nunley, Jayce Depron, Puoch Dobuol, Rondae Hill, Trey Shephard, Femi Olaniyan

TEX	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dailyn Swain G	29	10	6	5	4-5	1-1
Jordan Pope G	28	18	2	1	7-9	4-6
Matas Vokietaitis C	25	28	6	0	7-10	0-0
Tramon Mark G	21	6	2	4	2-4	0-1
Lassina Traore F	13	4	5	0	2-2	0-0
Bench
Camden Heide F	23	11	3	1	4-6	3-5
Simeon Wilcher G	22	14	2	2	3-6	0-2
Chendall Weaver G	17	0	3	4	0-6	0-3
Nic Codie F	10	4	5	0	0-2	0-1
Declan Duru Jr. F	8	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Anthon McDermott G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Cole Bott F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Brandon Taylor G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: John Clark, Lewis Obiorah

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	TEX -22.5	TEX -20.5	SOU +2.0	L TEX covered
Total	158.5	162.3	Over 3.8	W Over
Projected score	—	SOU 70.9 · TEX 91.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TEX -12.2	TEX -19.0
1H total	75.9	73
1H projected score	SOU 31.9 · TEX 44.1	SOU 27 · TEX 46

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SOU LWWLL	2-3	40%	2-3	2-2
TEX LWLWL	4-4	50%	3-2	3-3

Venue/role: SOU away, as underdog; TEX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SOU OOOUO	4-1	80%	1-4
TEX UOOOO	5-3	63%	5-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SOUlast 5	1-4 20%	2-3 40%	4-1 80%
TEXlast 8	5-3 63%	4-4 50%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Southern

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-1

80% overs · avg +19.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-340%

L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-180%

O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ARK	L 77-109	+26.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 186
Nov 5	@MARQ	L 82-100	+24.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 182
Nov 18	@WASH	L 93-99	+23.5	W +17.5	157.5	O 192
Nov 21	@SJSU	L 66-80	+5.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 146
Nov 29	@NWST	W 75-73	-3.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ARK

L 77-109

−5.5

MARQ

L 82-100

+6.5

WASH

L 93-99

+17.5

SJSU

L 66-80

−8.5

NWST

W 75-73

−1.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ARK

L 77-109

+35.5

MARQ

L 82-100

+26.5

WASH

L 93-99

+34.5

SJSU

L 66-80

−4.5

NWST

W 75-73

+3.5

over 4under 1avg +19.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Texas

8 games played

Straight up

5-3

63% wins

Against the spread

4-4

50% covers · avg −3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-3

63% overs · avg +3 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-363%

L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-450%

L W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-363%

U O U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsDUKE	L 60-75	+10.5	L −4.5	153.5	U 135
Nov 8	vsLAF	W 97-60	-25.5	W +11.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 12	vsFDU	W 93-58	-31.5	W +3.5	158.5	U 151
Nov 15	vsKC	W 71-55	-31.5	L −15.5	159.5	U 126
Nov 18	vsRID	W 99-65	-30.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 164
Nov 24	vsASU	L 86-87	-6.5	L −7.5	153.5	O 173
Nov 26	vsNCSU	W 102-97	+1.5	W +6.5	161.5	O 199
Dec 3	vsUVA	L 69-88	-3.5	L −22.5	154.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DUKE

L 60-75

−4.5

LAF

W 97-60

+11.5

FDU

W 93-58

+3.5

W 71-55

−15.5

RID

W 99-65

+3.5

ASU

L 86-87

−7.5

NCSU

W 102-97

+6.5

UVA

L 69-88

−22.5

covered 4didn’t cover 4avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DUKE

L 60-75

−18.5

LAF

W 97-60

+3.5

FDU

W 93-58

−7.5

W 71-55

−33.5

RID

W 99-65

+20.5

ASU

L 86-87

+19.5

NCSU

W 102-97

+37.5

UVA

L 69-88

+2.5

over 5under 3avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Southern Jaguars at Texas Longhorns

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Southern

Texas

Southern

Texas