Strahan Arena at the University Events Center · at Texas St
Closing line
TXST -3.5✓ SOU covered by 0.5
TXST -3.5✓ SOU covered by 0.5Closing total142.5Over by 26.5
 SOU | This season | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | Record | 4-5 |
| 2-4 | ATS | 5-4 |
| 5-1 | O/U | 4-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: SOU 73–76 TXST · ✓ TXST (61%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SOU | 38 | 45 | 83 |
| TXST | 38 | 48 | 86 |
1st half: SOU 38, TXST 38 (tied). The model had TXST by 1.8 and a total of 69.5 (actual 76).
Team stats
| SOU | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 30-63 48% | Field goals | 28-54 52% |
| 10-26 38% | 3-pointers | 7-17 41% |
| 13-19 68% | Free throws | 23-31 74% |
| 31 11 off | Rebounds | 35 9 off |
| 10 | Assists | 16 |
| 13 | Steals | 13 |
| 4 | Blocks | 4 |
| 19 | Turnovers | 19 |
| 21 | Fouls | 17 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 42 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 26 |
Players
| SOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Amboree G | 34 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 5-8 | 4-5 |
| Brandon Hardy G | 29 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| DaMariee Jones F | 13 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Terrance Dixon Jr. F | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Joe Manning G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Fazl Oshodi G | 37 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 8-21 | 6-16 |
| AJ Barnes F | 28 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 5-12 | 0-1 |
| Malek Abdelgowad F | 25 | 21 | 9 | 1 | 8-10 | 0-0 |
| Keith Lamar F | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Ashton Magee G | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Lionel Bell C | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jayce Depron, Puoch Dobuol, Michael Jacobs, Andre Nunley, Rondae Hill, Trey Shephard, Femi Olaniyan
| TXST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Drone G | 37 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 8-13 | 3-4 |
| Kyndall Davis G | 31 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 4-10 | 2-7 |
| Kaden Gumbs G | 25 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 5-7 | 0-0 |
| DJ Hall F | 24 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 1-7 | 0-0 |
| Makai Willis C | 11 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jalen Bolden G | 30 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 4-7 | 2-5 |
| Tay Knox C | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Ky Pernell G | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Robert Fields C | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jaelyn Lee G | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Isaiah Barganier, Cameron Simpson, Dimp Pernell, Deke Thompson, Franck Emmou
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTXST -3.5
ModelTXST -3.1
Model edgeSOU +0.4
W SOU covered
Total
Market142.5
Model148.4
Model edgeOver 5.9
W Over
Projected score
SOU 72.7 · TXST 75.8
SOU 83 · TXST 86
Win probability
TXST 61%
1st half
Spread
TXST -1.8
tied
Total
69.5
76 points
Projected score
SOU 33.9 · TXST 35.6
SOU 38 · TXST 38
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTXST -2.5
1 → TXST
CloseTXST -3.5
1 pt toward TXST
Total
Open139.5
▲ 3
Close142.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
SOU +145 · TXST -175
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TXST -2.5 · closed TXST -3.5 · moved 1 toward TXSTmodel TXST -3
model TXST -3
Opened 139.5 · closed 142.5 · moved 3 upmodel 148.5
model 148.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SOUlast 6 | 1-5 17% | 2-4 33% | 5-1 83% |
| TXSTlast 9 | 4-5 44% | 5-4 56% | 4-5 44% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Southern
6 games played
Straight up
1-5
17% wins
Against the spread
2-4
33% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-1
83% overs · avg +16.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
ARK
ARKL 77-109
−5.5
5
@
MARQ
MARQL 82-100
+6.5
18
@
WASH
WASHL 93-99
+17.5
21
@
SJSU
SJSUL 66-80
−8.5
29
@
NWST
NWSTW 75-73
−1.5
8
@
TEX
TEXL 69-95
−3.5
covered 2didn’t cover 4avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@ARK
ARKL 77-109
+35.5
5
@MARQ
MARQL 82-100
+26.5
18
@WASH
WASHL 93-99
+34.5
21
@SJSU
SJSUL 66-80
−4.5
29
@NWST
NWSTW 75-73
+3.5
8
@TEX
TEXL 69-95
+5.5
over 5under 1avg +16.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Texas St
9 games played
Straight up
4-5
44% wins
Against the spread
5-4
56% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-5
44% overs · avg −3.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ BGSU | L 48-83 | +5.5 | L −29.5 | 146.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 8 | @ TULN | L 71-79 | +12.5 | W +4.5 | 146.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 12 | vs UTSA | W 80-69 | -2.5 | W +8.5 | 147.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 15 | vs TXSO | W 77-67 | -4.5 | W +5.5 | 144.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 18 | vs ACU | W 63-49 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 138.5 | U 112 |
| Nov 21 | vs LR | W 65-56 | -5.5 | W +3.5 | 131.5 | U 121 |
| Nov 28 | vs SEA | L 52-66 | +7.5 | L −6.5 | 136.5 | U 118 |
| Nov 29 | vs LEH | L 74-78 | -6.5 | L −10.5 | 135.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 3 | @ RICE | L 72-77 | +3.5 | L −1.5 | 133.5 | O 149 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@BGSU
BGSUL 48-83
−29.5
8
@TULN
TULNL 71-79
+4.5
12
vsUTSA
UTSAW 80-69
+8.5
15
vsTXSO
TXSOW 77-67
+5.5
18
vsACU
ACUW 63-49
+12.5
21
vsLR
LRW 65-56
+3.5
28
vsSEA
SEAL 52-66
−6.5
29
vsLEH
LEHL 74-78
−10.5
3
@RICE
RICEL 72-77
−1.5
covered 5didn’t cover 4avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BGSU
BGSUL 48-83
−15.5
8
@TULN
TULNL 71-79
+3.5
12
vsUTSA
UTSAW 80-69
+1.5
15
vsTXSO
TXSOW 77-67
−0.5
18
vsACU
ACUW 63-49
−26.5
21
vsLR
LRW 65-56
−10.5
28
vsSEA
SEAL 52-66
−18.5
29
vsLEH
LEHL 74-78
+16.5
3
@RICE
RICEL 72-77
+15.5
over 4under 5avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Southern
1-5 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Texas69–95
- W@ N'Western St75–73
- L@ San José St66–80
- L@ Washington93–99
- L@ Marquette82–100
2 days since their last game.
Texas St
4-5 overall · 0-0 in conference · Pac-12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Rice72–77
- Lvs Lehigh74–78
- Lvs Seattle U52–66
- Wvs Little Rock65–56
- Wvs Abilene Chrstn63–49
A week or more of rest.