First Horizon Coliseum · Neutral site
Closing line
NCSU -7.5✓ NCSU covered by 6.5
NCSU -7.5✓ NCSU covered by 6.5Closing total148.5Under by 10.5
 MISS | This season | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| 7-4 | Record | 8-4 |
| 2-9 | ATS | 6-6 |
| 7-4 | O/U | 7-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MISS 74–79 NCSU · ✓ NCSU (67%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MISS | 26 | 36 | 62 |
| NCSU | 45 | 31 | 76 |
1st half: MISS 26, NCSU 45 (NCSU by 19). The model had NCSU by 2.9 and a total of 71.7 (actual 71).
Team stats
| MISS | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-53 40% | Field goals | 28-55 51% |
| 8-30 27% | 3-pointers | 13-32 41% |
| 12-18 67% | Free throws | 7-13 54% |
| 30 7 off | Rebounds | 36 7 off |
| 9 | Assists | 20 |
| 8 | Steals | 7 |
| 0 | Blocks | 1 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 16 |
| 19 | Fouls | 21 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 12 | Fast-break points | 5 |
Players
| MISS | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Perry G | 33 | 21 | 0 | 2 | 7-13 | 5-11 |
| Malik Dia F | 29 | 20 | 11 | 0 | 8-16 | 0-3 |
| Corey Chest F | 15 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Ilias Kamardine G | 15 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| AJ Storr G | 15 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0-5 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Eduardo Klafke G | 26 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Zach Day G | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Augusto Cassia F | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Patton Pinkins G | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| James Scott F | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Max Smith G | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Niko Bundalo F | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Kezza Giffa G | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
Did not play: Tylis Jordan, Koren Johnson, Hobert Grayson IV
| NCSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quadir Copeland G | 33 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 6-8 | 2-4 |
| Ven-Allen Lubin F | 31 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 7-8 | 0-1 |
| Paul McNeil Jr. G | 31 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Darrion Williams F | 28 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0-8 | 0-4 |
| Alyn Breed G | 22 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2-8 | 1-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Tre Holloman G | 26 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 6-10 | 4-7 |
| Musa Sagnia C | 20 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Matt Able G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Scottie Ebube C | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jerry Deng, Colt Langdon, Terrance Arceneaux, Zymicah Wilkins, Jayme Kontuniemi, Jordan Snell
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNCSU -6.5
1 → NCSU
CloseNCSU -7.5
1 pt toward NCSU
Total
Open147.5
▲ 1
Close148.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
MISS +245 · NCSU -305
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NCSU -6.5 · closed NCSU -7.5 · moved 1 toward NCSUmodel NCSU -5
model NCSU -5
Opened 147.5 · closed 148.5 · moved 1 upmodel 153
model 153
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | NCSU -7.5 | NCSU -5.1 | MISS +2.4 | L NCSU covered |
| Total | 148.5 | 153.2 | Over 4.7 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | MISS 74 · NCSU 79.2 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | NCSU -2.9 | NCSU -19.0 |
| 1H total | 71.7 | 71 |
| 1H projected score | MISS 34.4 · NCSU 37.3 | MISS 26 · NCSU 45 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MISS | 6-4 60% | 1-9 10% | 6-4 60% |
| NCSU | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MISS 1–0 NCSUMISS leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · MISS 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2023-24 | NCSU 52 @ MISS 72 | MISS -2 | MISS W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Ole Miss
11 games played
Straight up
7-4
64% wins
Against the spread
2-9
18% covers · avg −5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-4
64% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SELA | W 88-58 | -21.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 7 | vs ULM | W 86-65 | -37.5 | L −16.5 | 149.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 11 | vs MEM | W 83-77 | -9.5 | L −3.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 14 | vs CSUB | W 82-60 | -23.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | O 142 |
| Nov 18 | vs APSU | W 72-65 | -20.5 | L −13.5 | 145.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs IOWA | L 69-74 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 140.5 | O 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs UTAH | L 74-75 | -10.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 2 | vs MIA | L 66-75 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 6 | @ SJU | L 58-63 | +13.5 | W +8.5 | 151.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 13 | vs USM | W 71-67 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 138.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 17 | vs AAMU | W 80-66 | -20.5 | L −6.5 | 135.5 | O 146 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSELA
SELAW 88-58
+8.5
7
vsULM
ULMW 86-65
−16.5
11
vsMEM
MEMW 83-77
−3.5
14
vsCSUB
CSUBW 82-60
−1.5
18
vsAPSU
APSUW 72-65
−13.5
25
vsIOWA
IOWAL 69-74
−0.5
26
vsUTAH
UTAHL 74-75
−11.5
2
vsMIA
MIAL 66-75
−10.5
6
@SJU
SJUL 58-63
+8.5
13
vsUSM
USMW 71-67
−8.5
17
vsAAMU
AAMUW 80-66
−6.5
covered 2didn’t cover 9avg −5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSELA
SELAW 88-58
+2.5
7
vsULM
ULMW 86-65
+1.5
11
vsMEM
MEMW 83-77
+7.5
14
vsCSUB
CSUBW 82-60
+1.5
18
vsAPSU
APSUW 72-65
−8.5
25
vsIOWA
IOWAL 69-74
+2.5
26
vsUTAH
UTAHL 74-75
+4.5
2
vsMIA
MIAL 66-75
−4.5
6
@SJU
SJUL 58-63
−30.5
13
vsUSM
USMW 71-67
−0.5
17
vsAAMU
AAMUW 80-66
+10.5
over 7under 4avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
NC State
12 games played
Straight up
8-4
67% wins
Against the spread
6-6
50% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-5
58% overs · avg +8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NCCU | W 114-66 | -31.5 | W +16.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 7 | vs UAB | W 94-70 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 12 | vs UNCG | W 110-64 | -30.5 | W +15.5 | 153.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 17 | vs VCU | W 85-79 | -11.5 | L −5.5 | 164.5 | U 164 |
| Nov 24 | vs HALL | L 74-85 | -7.5 | L −18.5 | 143.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 25 | vs BOIS | W 81-70 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 26 | vs TEX | L 97-102 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 161.5 | O 199 |
| Dec 3 | @ AUB | L 73-83 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 162.5 | U 156 |
| Dec 6 | vs UNCA | W 75-63 | -28.5 | L −16.5 | 155.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 10 | vs LIB | W 85-45 | -12.5 | W +27.5 | 149.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 13 | vs KU | L 76-77 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 17 | vs TXSO | W 108-72 | -34.5 | W +1.5 | 152.5 | O 180 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+16.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+4.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+15.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−5.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
−18.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
+4.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
−6.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 73-83
−4.5
6
vsUNCA
UNCAW 75-63
−16.5
10
vsLIB
LIBW 85-45
+27.5
13
vsKU
KUL 76-77
−2.5
17
vsTXSO
TXSOW 108-72
+1.5
covered 6didn’t cover 6avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNCCU
NCCUW 114-66
+34.5
7
vsUAB
UABW 94-70
+1.5
12
vsUNCG
UNCGW 110-64
+20.5
17
vsVCU
VCUW 85-79
−0.5
24
vsHALL
HALLL 74-85
+15.5
25
vsBOIS
BOISW 81-70
−1.5
26
vsTEX
TEXL 97-102
+37.5
3
@AUB
AUBL 73-83
−6.5
6
vsUNCA
UNCAW 75-63
−17.5
10
vsLIB
LIBW 85-45
−19.5
13
vsKU
KUL 76-77
+4.5
17
vsTXSO
TXSOW 108-72
+27.5
over 7under 5avg +8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Ole Miss
7-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Alabama A&M80–66
- Wvs Southern Miss71–67
- L@ St John's58–63
- Lvs Miami66–75
- Lvs Utah74–75
4 days since their last game.
NC State
8-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Texas Southern108–72
- Lvs Kansas76–77
- Wvs Liberty85–45
- Wvs UNC Asheville75–63
- L@ Auburn73–83
4 days since their last game.