1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. GT vs FLA
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Florida Gators

Kia Center · Neutral site
#94GTGeorgia Tech
vs
#1FLAFlorida AP #1
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
GTThis seasonFLA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FLA 95–66 · win probability FLA 99%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 160.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FLA has more of the edges

GT 1, FLA 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
FLABig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GT 29.9%, FLA 43.4%. Defensive: GT 69.3%, FLA 75.2%
FLABig
Shooting
Effective FG%: GT 50.0 and allows 49.9; FLA 54.1 and allows 46.1
FLABig
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GT 16%, FLA 85%. Transfers in: GT 5, FLA 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
FLABig
FLA offense vs GT defense
Offense 1st of 366 against a defense 123rd, on the model’s ratings
FLASmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: GT 33.3, FLA 39.0. Allowed: GT 34.2, FLA 34.0
GTSmall
Three-pointers
GT hits 35.1% and allows 33.1%; FLA hits 31.2% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 33.1% and 37.0% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
GT has played the 78th-hardest schedule, FLA the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less
FLASmall
GT offense vs FLA defense
Offense 71st of 366 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings
FLASmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GT 18.6%, FLA 16.4%. Forced: GT 15.6%, FLA 15.2%
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: GT plays 71.9 a game (38th fastest), FLA 72.0 (34th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—FLA -28.4—
Total—160.8—
Projected score—GT 66.2 · FLA 94.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFLA -16.8—
1H total75.1—
1H projected scoreGT 29.2 · FLA 45.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Florida has the better starters

Position by position: Georgia Tech 0, Florida 2, even 3
Georgia TechBetterFlorida
G N. Whitlock TR20.4 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.3 ast Score 87
Even
G D. Aberdeen TR13.5 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 90
G C. Garland TR20.4 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.6 ast Score 98
Even
G B. Fland11.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.5 ast Score 89
G K. Craft7.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 43
FLABig
F T. Haugh17.1 pts · 6.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 97
F V. Valdes TR14.9 pts · 4 reb · 4.5 ast Score 74
FLASmall
F A. Condon15.1 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 98
F J. Fields TR4.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Not ranked
No call
C R. Chinyelu10.9 pts · 11.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 97
Georgia TechBetterFlorida
GT offense71st of 366 · +1.7
FLASmall
FLA defense4th of 366 · +10.4
GT defense123rd of 366 · -2.1
FLASmall
FLA offense1st of 366 · +17.0
Backcourt+7.4 · 3 players
GTSmall
Backcourt+5.2 · 2 players
Frontcourt+2.6 · 2 players
FLABig
Frontcourt+17.1 · 3 players
Bench-1.0 · 2 players
FLABig
Bench+3.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestGT betterFLA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Georgia Tech
Guards
N. Whitlock35 min · TRC. Garland35 min · TRK. Craft21 minC. Muldrew14 min · TRK. BaileyNewK. AllenNew
Forwards
V. Valdes30 min · TRJ. Fields14 min · TRT. JordanNewM. DiopNewI. KurucsNew
Centers
C. Kirouac12 minJ. McVeyNew
Florida
Guards
D. Aberdeen31 min · TRB. Fland30 minU. Klavzar21 minI. Brown13 minC. Ingram6 minA. Lloyd5 min
Forwards
T. Haugh33 minA. Condon31 minD. PetrovicNewA. ButajevasNew
Centers
R. Chinyelu25 minV. Mikic3 minJ. LayNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
GTFLA
Scoring
73.8 #208Points per game87.1 #5
1.03 #292Points per possession1.21 #7
71.9 #38Pace (possessions)72.0 #34
Shooting
50.0 #234Effective FG%54.1 #63
35.1 #1093-point %31.2 #315
33.1 #3133-point attempt rate37.0 #230
33.3 #229Free throw rate39.0 #80
Possessions
18.6 #306Turnover rate16.4 #162
29.9 #203Offensive rebound rate43.4 #2
15.8 #55Assists per game17.0 #26
Defense
77.4 #247Points allowed71.5 #93
1.08 #148Points allowed per possession0.99 #19
49.9 #94Opponent effective FG%46.1 #10
33.1 #134Opponent 3-point %32.1 #66
15.6 #244Turnovers forced15.2 #269
69.3 #189Defensive rebound rate75.2 #7
6.1 #229Steals per game6.6 #158
3.9 #80Blocks per game5.0 #16
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Georgia Tech

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 2-16 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Clemson76–79
  • Lvs California65–76
  • Lvs Florida St71–80
  • L@ Louisville70–87
  • Lvs Virginia68–94

A week or more of rest.

Florida

27-8 in 2025-26 overall · 17-3 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Iowa72–73
  • Wvs Prairie View114–55
  • Lvs Vanderbilt74–91
  • Wvs Kentucky71–63
  • W@ Kentucky84–77

A week or more of rest.