1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. VILL vs WIS
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

Villanova Wildcats vs Wisconsin Badgers

Xfinity Mobile Arena · Neutral site
#32VILLVillanova
vs
#41WISWisconsin
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
VILLThis seasonWIS
0-1Record0-0
0-1ATS0-0
1-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects WIS 77–77 · win probability WIS 52%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 153.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VILL has more of the edges

VILL 1, WIS 0 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
VILLSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: VILL 15.0%, WIS 12.8%. Forced: VILL 18.6%, WIS 14.3%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: VILL plays 67.3 a game (270th fastest), WIS 70.0 (119th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: VILL 33%, WIS 54%. Transfers in: VILL 6, WIS 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: VILL 32.2%, WIS 29.1%. Defensive: VILL 68.2%, WIS 71.8%
Even
WIS offense vs VILL defense
Offense 44th of 366 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: VILL 53.8 and allows 51.4; WIS 54.5 and allows 51.4
Even
Three-pointers
VILL hits 35.7% and allows 33.4%; WIS hits 36.2% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 45.7% and 52.1% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
VILL has played the 35th-hardest schedule, WIS the 24th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: VILL 30.9, WIS 31.5. Allowed: VILL 30.0, WIS 29.9
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
VILL offense vs WIS defense
Offense 39th of 366 against a defense 40th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—WIS -0.5—
Total—153.8—
Projected score—VILL 76.6 · WIS 77.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadWIS -0.2—
1H total71.9—
1H projected scoreVILL 35.9 · WIS 36—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Villanova 0, Wisconsin 0, even 5
VillanovaBetterWisconsin
G J. Fiegen TR11 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 82
Even
G E. Elmer TR12.8 pts · 6.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 68
G D. Simmons TR16.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.8 ast Score 63
Even
G T. Autry TR10.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 61
G T. Perkins18 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast Score 100
Even
G B. Carrington8.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90
F D. Royal TR5 pts · 8 reb · 0 ast Score 100
Even
F N. Winter13.1 pts · 8.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 96
F K. Evans TR13.3 pts · 7.4 reb · 2 ast Score 95
Even
F A. Rapp9.7 pts · 4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 83
VillanovaBetterWisconsin
VILL offense39th of 366 · +5.0
Even
WIS defense40th of 366 · +2.9
VILL defense30th of 366 · +3.5
Even
WIS offense44th of 366 · +4.5
Backcourt+7.2 · 3 players
VILLBig
Backcourt+2.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt+6.1 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt+6.7 · 2 players
Bench+3.3 · 4 players
VILLBig
Bench-2.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestVILL betterWIS betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Villanova
Guards
J. Fiegen38 min · TRD. Simmons36 min · TRT. Perkins35 minE. Crawford26 min · TRW. Chiddick3 minB. MullerNew
Forwards
D. Royal32 min · TRK. Evans31 min · TRM. Hodge28 minA. Samb6 min · TR
Centers
N. OnyekwereNewL. SuigoNew
Wisconsin
Guards
E. Elmer31 min · TRT. Autry29 min · TRB. Carrington18 minJ. Janicki17 minH. Jones7 minZ. Kinziger6 min
Forwards
N. Winter31 minA. Rapp23 minV. Onuetu18 min · TRW. Garlock7 minI. RiddleNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
VILLWIS
Scoring
77.1 #113Points per game83.0 #28
1.15 #64Points per possession1.18 #27
67.3 #270Pace (possessions)70.0 #119
Shooting
53.8 #74Effective FG%54.5 #52
35.7 #773-point %36.2 #50
45.7 #523-point attempt rate52.1 #6
30.9 #284Free throw rate31.5 #267
Possessions
15.0 #65Turnover rate12.8 #4
32.2 #118Offensive rebound rate29.1 #232
15.5 #66Assists per game16.0 #48
Defense
71.2 #82Points allowed76.1 #221
1.06 #105Points allowed per possession1.09 #193
51.4 #181Opponent effective FG%51.4 #178
33.4 #148Opponent 3-point %33.5 #152
18.6 #70Turnovers forced14.3 #327
68.2 #246Defensive rebound rate71.8 #74
7.4 #93Steals per game5.6 #287
2.1 #340Blocks per game3.1 #198
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Villanova

24-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Utah State76–86
  • Lvs Georgetown64–78
  • Wvs Xavier91–78
  • W@ DePaul76–57
  • L@ St John's57–89

A week or more of rest.

Wisconsin

24-11 in 2025-26 overall · 16-7 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs High Point82–83
  • Lvs Michigan65–68
  • Wvs Illinois91–88
  • Wvs Washington85–82
  • W@ Purdue97–93

A week or more of rest.