1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. UCF @ IU
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

UCF Knights at Indiana Hoosiers

Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall · at Indiana
#39UCFUCF
@
#38IUIndiana
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UCFThis seasonIU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects IU 82–79 · win probability IU 62%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 161.0
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: IU has more of the edges

UCF 1, IU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UCFBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UCF 35.0%, IU 26.9%. Defensive: UCF 71.2%, IU 70.8%
IUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UCF 52.6 and allows 52.1; IU 56.1 and allows 49.0
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: UCF plays 71.2 a game (63rd fastest), IU 67.4 (260th). Faster games mean more points
IUSmall
IU offense vs UCF defense
Offense 41st of 366 against a defense 93rd, on the model’s ratings
IUSmall
Home court
IU at home. This season: IU 0-0 at home, UCF 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UCF 30.5, IU 35.0. Allowed: UCF 34.9, IU 37.0
Even
Three-pointers
UCF hits 36.2% and allows 33.9%; IU hits 34.7% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 34.8% and 50.5% of their shots
Even
UCF offense vs IU defense
Offense 18th of 366 against a defense 38th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UCF 16.0%, IU 15.1%. Forced: UCF 15.7%, IU 15.1%
Context
Schedule so far
UCF has played the 41st-hardest schedule, IU the 48th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UCF 20%, IU 19%. Transfers in: UCF 7, IU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—IU -3.6—
Total—161.0—
Projected score—UCF 78.7 · IU 82.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadIU -2.0—
1H total75.2—
1H projected scoreUCF 36.6 · IU 38.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: UCF 2, Indiana 2, even 1
UCFBetterIndiana
G C. Vasko TR11 pts · 4.7 reb · 4.1 ast Score 52
IUBig
G M. Burton TR18.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.7 ast Score 98
G D. Johnson TR23.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 100
UCFSmall
G B. Lindsay TR12.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 75
F L. Walker TR18.7 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 87
UCFSmall
G J. Mustaf TR10.4 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.4 ast Score 65
F I. Malone TR10.4 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 82
IUSmall
F A. Sherrell TR11.1 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 98
F C. Abass TR8.4 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.5 ast Score 70
Even
C S. Yigitoglu TR10.7 pts · 7.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 64
UCFBetterIndiana
UCF offense18th of 366 · +8.0
Even
IU defense38th of 366 · +3.0
UCF defense93rd of 366 · -0.4
Even
IU offense41st of 366 · +4.8
Backcourt+7.4 · 2 players
UCFSmall
Backcourt+6.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt+5.3 · 3 players
Even
Frontcourt+5.8 · 2 players
Bench+2.0 · 5 players
UCFSmall
Bench+0.1 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUCF betterIU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UCF
Guards
C. Vasko33 min · TRD. Johnson26 min · TRM. Dean17 min · TRC. Pacheco16 minA. DeanNewT. JonesNew
Forwards
L. Walker34 min · TRI. Malone23 min · TRC. Abass20 min · TRJ. Asemota8 min · TRL. GivanNewD. MannNew
Centers
J. Bol19 minE. Hulsewe5 min
Indiana
Guards
M. Burton30 min · TRB. Lindsay29 min · TRJ. Mustaf28 min · TRJ. Monden21 min · TRD. Harris10 min · TRD. Snively2 min
Forwards
A. Sherrell24 min · TRS. Alexis21 minT. Sisley13 minB. Winker3 min · TRV. KarvalaNewT. ManhertzNew
Centers
S. Yigitoglu29 min · TRC. SokolovNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UCFIU
Scoring
80.7 #53Points per game78.2 #93
1.13 #77Points per possession1.16 #46
71.2 #63Pace (possessions)67.4 #260
Shooting
52.6 #123Effective FG%56.1 #22
36.2 #493-point %34.7 #138
34.8 #2813-point attempt rate50.5 #14
30.5 #295Free throw rate35.0 #179
Possessions
16.0 #137Turnover rate15.1 #71
35.0 #47Offensive rebound rate26.9 #300
15.7 #56Assists per game16.6 #34
Defense
78.3 #274Points allowed72.2 #109
1.10 #219Points allowed per possession1.07 #131
52.1 #221Opponent effective FG%49.0 #68
33.9 #176Opponent 3-point %33.1 #128
15.7 #241Turnovers forced15.1 #284
71.2 #96Defensive rebound rate70.8 #122
5.6 #285Steals per game4.7 #348
3.0 #225Blocks per game2.7 #278
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UCF

21-12 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UCLA71–75
  • Lvs Arizona59–81
  • Wvs Cincinnati66–65
  • L@ West Virginia62–77
  • Lvs Oklahoma St104–111

A week or more of rest.

Indiana

18-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Northwestern61–74
  • L@ Ohio State78–91
  • Wvs Minnesota77–47
  • Lvs Michigan St64–77
  • Lvs Northwestern68–72

A week or more of rest.