Kansas State Wildcats at Indiana Hoosiers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 8:00 PM ETSimon Skjodt Assembly Hall · at Indiana

Final

#38IUIndiana AP #2586▲ winner

Closing lineIU -10.5✓ IU covered by 6.5

Closing total164.5Under by 9.5

Season records: Kansas St and Indiana
KSU	This season	IU
5-1	Record	5-0
3-3	ATS	3-2
6-0	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: KSU 78–84 IU · ✓ IU (70%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
KSU	27	42	69
IU	39	47	86

1st half: KSU 27, IU 39 (IU by 12). The model had IU by 3.4 and a total of 75.5 (actual 66).

Team stats

KSU		IU
24-57 42%	Field goals	27-57 47%
8-20 40%	3-pointers	10-33 30%
13-15 87%	Free throws	22-29 76%
28 8 off	Rebounds	35 11 off
10	Assists	15
6	Steals	7
2	Blocks	4
19	Turnovers	17
25	Fouls	20
24	Points in paint	32
11	Fast-break points	14

Players

KSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
PJ Haggerty G	36	16	3	2	7-18	0-2
Nate Johnson G	33	13	5	2	3-9	2-6
Elias Rapieque F	22	9	5	0	4-6	1-1
Abdi Bashir Jr. G	14	3	1	1	1-2	1-2
Khamari McGriff F	10	2	1	1	1-1	0-0
Bench
David Castillo G	29	7	1	2	2-9	1-5
CJ Jones G	23	15	2	1	5-10	3-4
Mobi Ikegwuruka F	15	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Andrej Kostic G	10	2	2	1	1-2	0-0
Dorin Buca C	6	2	2	0	0-0	0-0
Stephen Osei F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Taj Manning F	1	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Marcus Johnson, Exavier Wilson

IU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Lamar Wilkerson G	36	14	4	1	4-7	4-7
Conor Enright G	31	7	6	3	2-5	2-5
Tucker DeVries F	31	9	6	5	4-11	1-6
Reed Bailey F	29	21	4	2	4-7	0-1
Tayton Conerway G	26	19	4	2	7-14	2-7
Bench
Trent Sisley F	21	12	5	1	5-8	1-3
Nick Dorn G	11	1	1	0	0-3	0-3
Sam Alexis F	10	3	2	1	1-1	0-0
Jasai Miles G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Ian Stephens G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Tryce Grensing G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Drew Snively G	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Jordan Rayford, Josh Harris, Aleksa Ristic, Andrej Acimovic, Deuce Drake

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	IU -10.5	IU -5.9	KSU +4.6	L IU covered
Total	164.5	161.2	Under 3.3	W Under
Projected score	—	KSU 77.6 · IU 83.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	IU -3.4	IU -12.0
1H total	75.5	66
1H projected score	KSU 36 · IU 39.4	KSU 27 · IU 39

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KSU LLLWW	3-3	50%	—	2-0
IU WWWLL	3-2	60%	2-2	3-2

Venue/role: KSU away, as underdog; IU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
KSU OOOOO	6-0	100%	5-1
IU OOOUU	3-2	60%	5-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KSUlast 6	5-1 83%	3-3 50%	6-0 100%
IUlast 5	5-0 100%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kansas St

6 games played

Straight up

5-1

83% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-0

100% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-183%

W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-0100%

O O O O O O

6 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsUNCG	W 93-64	-18.5	W +10.5	148.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsBELL	W 98-71	-28.5	L −1.5	168.5	O 169
Nov 13	vsCAL	W 99-96	-6.5	L −3.5	164.5	O 195
Nov 17	vsTLSA	W 84-83	-12.5	L −11.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 20	vsMSST	W 98-77	+2.5	W +23.5	164.5	O 175
Nov 21	vsNEB	L 85-86	+1.5	W +0.5	168.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNCG

W 93-64

+10.5

BELL

W 98-71

−1.5

CAL

W 99-96

−3.5

TLSA

W 84-83

−11.5

MSST

W 98-77

+23.5

NEB

L 85-86

+0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNCG

W 93-64

+8.5

BELL

W 98-71

+0.5

CAL

W 99-96

+30.5

TLSA

W 84-83

+6.5

MSST

W 98-77

+10.5

NEB

L 85-86

+2.5

over 6under 0avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Indiana

5 games played

Straight up

5-0

100% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg −5.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-0100%

W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsAAMU	W 98-51	-30.5	W +16.5	147.5	O 149
Nov 9	vsMARQ	W 100-77	-3.5	W +19.5	156.5	O 177
Nov 12	vsMILW	W 101-70	-24.5	W +6.5	165.5	O 171
Nov 16	vsUIW	W 69-61	-28.5	L −20.5	157.5	U 130
Nov 20	vsLIN	W 73-53	-32.5	L −12.5	155.5	U 126

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AAMU

W 98-51

+16.5

MARQ

W 100-77

+19.5

MILW

W 101-70

+6.5

UIW

W 69-61

−20.5

LIN

W 73-53

−12.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AAMU

W 98-51

+1.5

MARQ

W 100-77

+20.5

MILW

W 101-70

+5.5

UIW

W 69-61

−27.5

LIN

W 73-53

−29.5

over 3under 2avg −5.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Kansas State Wildcats at Indiana Hoosiers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Kansas St

Indiana

Kansas St

Indiana