Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Duke Blue Devils: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 31, 4:00 PM ETCameron Indoor Stadium · at Duke · Conference game

Final

#3DUKEDuke AP #685▲ winner

Closing lineDUKE -27.5✓ GT covered by 21.5

Closing total153.5Over by 10.5

Season records: Georgia Tech and Duke
GT	This season	DUKE
9-4	Record	11-1
5-8	ATS	7-5
8-5	O/U	3-9

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: GT 62–87 DUKE · ✓ DUKE (99%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
GT	43	36	79
DUKE	39	46	85

1st half: GT 43, DUKE 39 (GT by 4). The model had DUKE by 14.9 and a total of 69.9 (actual 82).

Team stats

GT		DUKE
29-54 54%	Field goals	26-64 41%
10-18 56%	3-pointers	9-32 28%
11-13 85%	Free throws	24-35 69%
28 5 off	Rebounds	42 21 off
18	Assists	10
8	Steals	11
4	Blocks	2
17	Turnovers	12
25	Fouls	15
26	Points in paint	32
9	Fast-break points	7

Players

GT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kowacie Reeves Jr. F	35	23	3	0	9-16	5-7
Lamar Washington G	30	10	2	6	2-8	1-4
Akai Fleming G	24	9	2	4	1-4	1-2
Baye Ndongo F	20	4	4	2	2-6	0-2
Mouhamed Sylla C	13	8	3	2	4-6	0-0
Bench
Jaeden Mustaf G	28	11	7	2	5-7	1-1
Chas Kelley III G	20	10	1	0	4-4	2-2
Peyton Marshall C	19	2	4	2	1-2	0-0
Cole Kirouac C	11	2	1	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Kam Craft, Brandon Stores Jr., Dyllan Thompson, Eric Chatfield Jr., Davi Remagen

DUKE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cameron Boozer F	38	26	12	2	8-15	3-5
Cayden Boozer G	31	13	5	3	5-12	0-4
Patrick Ngongba II C	29	11	9	0	3-4	1-1
Isaiah Evans G	28	17	5	0	4-10	2-7
Caleb Foster G	25	12	0	4	4-10	3-6
Bench
Maliq Brown F	18	4	4	1	2-5	0-2
Dame Sarr F	16	0	1	0	0-6	0-5
Nik Khamenia F	12	2	1	0	0-2	0-2
Darren Harris G	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Cameron Sheffield, Ifeanyi Ufochukwu, Jack Scott, Sebastian Wilkins

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	DUKE -27.5	DUKE -25.2	GT +2.3	W GT covered
Total	153.5	149.3	Under 4.2	L Over
Projected score	—	GT 62.1 · DUKE 87.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DUKE -14.9	GT -4.0
1H total	69.9	82
1H projected score	GT 27.5 · DUKE 42.4	GT 43 · DUKE 39

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GT LWWLW	5-8	38%	1-0	1-2
DUKE LLWLL	7-5	58%	3-3	7-5

Venue/role: GT away, as underdog; DUKE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GT OOOOO	8-5	62%	9-4
DUKE UUUOO	3-9	25%	11-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GT	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%
DUKE	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22

GT 1–5 DUKEDUKE leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · DUKE has won the last 3 meetings · GT 4-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 13, 2024-25	GT 70 vs DUKE 78	DUKE -22.5	GT W
Dec 21, 2024-25	DUKE 82 @ GT 56	GT +15.5	DUKE W
Jan 13, 2023-24	GT 79 @ DUKE 84	DUKE -18.5	GT W
Dec 2, 2023-24	DUKE 68 @ GT 72	GT +12	GT W
Jan 28, 2022-23	DUKE 86 @ GT 43	GT +9.5	DUKE W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Georgia Tech

13 games played

Straight up

9-4

69% wins

Against the spread

5-8

38% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-5

62% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-469%

W W W L W W L L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-838%

L W L W L L L L L W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

8-562%

U U U O U O U O O O O O O

6 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUMES	W 56-52	-28.5	L −24.5	139.5	U 108
Nov 7	vsBRY	W 74-45	-15.5	W +13.5	138.5	U 119
Nov 10	vsSELA	W 70-60	-14.5	L −4.5	133.5	U 130
Nov 14	@UGA	L 87-92	+15.5	W +10.5	155.5	O 179
Nov 18	vsGASO	W 68-66	-10.5	L −8.5	164.5	U 134
Nov 23	vsWGA	W 82-66	-18.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 148
Nov 28	vsDEP	L 61-75	+1.5	L −12.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 29	vsDRKE	L 74-84	-4.5	L −14.5	137.5	O 158
Dec 3	vsMSST	L 73-85	+1.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 158
Dec 6	vsMONM	W 79-67	-10.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 146
Dec 16	vsMRST	W 87-76	-6.5	W +4.5	141.5	O 163
Dec 20	vsLAF	W 95-81	-16.5	L −2.5	147.5	O 176
Dec 28	vsFAMU	W 89-65	-19.5	W +4.5	146.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UMES

W 56-52

−24.5

BRY

W 74-45

+13.5

SELA

W 70-60

−4.5

UGA

L 87-92

+10.5

GASO

W 68-66

−8.5

WGA

W 82-66

−2.5

DEP

L 61-75

−12.5

DRKE

L 74-84

−14.5

MSST

L 73-85

−10.5

MONM

W 79-67

+1.5

MRST

W 87-76

+4.5

LAF

W 95-81

−2.5

FAMU

W 89-65

+4.5

covered 5didn’t cover 8avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UMES

W 56-52

−31.5

BRY

W 74-45

−19.5

SELA

W 70-60

−3.5

UGA

L 87-92

+23.5

GASO

W 68-66

−30.5

WGA

W 82-66

+3.5

DEP

L 61-75

−11.5

DRKE

L 74-84

+20.5

MSST

L 73-85

+7.5

MONM

W 79-67

+1.5

MRST

W 87-76

+21.5

LAF

W 95-81

+28.5

FAMU

W 89-65

+7.5

over 8under 5avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Duke

12 games played

Straight up

11-1

92% wins

Against the spread

7-5

58% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-9

25% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-192%

W W W W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

7-558%

W W W W W W L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-925%

U U O U U U U U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsTEX	W 75-60	-10.5	W +4.5	153.5	U 135
Nov 8	vsWCU	W 95-54	-36.5	W +4.5	152.5	U 149
Nov 11	@ARMY	W 114-59	-33.5	W +21.5	152.5	O 173
Nov 14	vsINST	W 100-62	-37.5	W +0.5	163.5	U 162
Nov 18	vsKU	W 78-66	-10.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 21	vsNIA	W 100-42	-39.5	W +18.5	146.5	U 142
Nov 23	vsHOW	W 93-56	-43.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 149
Nov 27	vsARK	W 80-71	-12.5	L −3.5	159.5	U 151
Dec 2	vsFLA	W 67-66	-9.5	L −8.5	157.5	U 133
Dec 6	@MSU	W 66-60	-1.5	W +4.5	141.5	U 126
Dec 16	vsLIP	W 97-73	-32.5	L −8.5	151.5	O 170
Dec 20	vsTTU	L 81-82	-9.5	L −10.5	152.5	O 163

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TEX

W 75-60

+4.5

WCU

W 95-54

+4.5

ARMY

W 114-59

+21.5

INST

W 100-62

+0.5

W 78-66

+1.5

NIA

W 100-42

+18.5

HOW

W 93-56

−6.5

ARK

W 80-71

−3.5

FLA

W 67-66

−8.5

MSU

W 66-60

+4.5

LIP

W 97-73

−8.5

TTU

L 81-82

−10.5

covered 7didn’t cover 5avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TEX

W 75-60

−18.5

WCU

W 95-54

−3.5

ARMY

W 114-59

+20.5

INST

W 100-62

−1.5

W 78-66

−5.5

NIA

W 100-42

−4.5

HOW

W 93-56

−5.5

ARK

W 80-71

−8.5

FLA

W 67-66

−24.5

MSU

W 66-60

−15.5

LIP

W 97-73

+18.5

TTU

L 81-82

+10.5

over 3under 9avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Duke Blue Devils

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Georgia Tech

Duke

Georgia Tech

Duke