Bridgestone Arena · Neutral site · Conference game · Conference tournament
Closing line
FLA -10.5✓ UK covered by 2.5
FLA -10.5✓ UK covered by 2.5Closing total161.5Under by 27.5
 UK | This season | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 21-12 | Record | 25-6 |
| 16-17 | ATS | 18-13 |
| 17-16 | O/U | 13-18 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UK 75–85 FLA · ✓ FLA (81%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UK | 28 | 35 | 63 |
| FLA | 37 | 34 | 71 |
1st half: UK 28, FLA 37 (FLA by 9). The model had FLA by 5.8 and a total of 74.3 (actual 65).
Team stats
| UK | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-59 36% | Field goals | 22-58 38% |
| 5-23 22% | 3-pointers | 3-20 15% |
| 16-20 80% | Free throws | 24-33 73% |
| 29 8 off | Rebounds | 50 18 off |
| 9 | Assists | 11 |
| 9 | Steals | 9 |
| 4 | Blocks | 6 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 18 |
| 24 | Fouls | 19 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 18 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| UK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otega Oweh G | 39 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5-18 | 0-3 |
| Denzel Aberdeen G | 35 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 5-11 | 2-5 |
| Collin Chandler G | 28 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Malachi Moreno C | 21 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Andrija Jelavic F | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Mo Dioubate F | 23 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 5-7 | 2-3 |
| Brandon Garrison F | 21 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Jasper Johnson G | 11 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2-5 | 0-2 |
| Kam Williams G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Trent Noah F | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Jaland Lowe, Walker Horn, Zach Tow, Reece Potter, Braydon Hawthorne, Jayden Quaintance
| FLA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Condon F | 36 | 22 | 10 | 2 | 7-12 | 0-1 |
| Boogie Fland G | 35 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3-13 | 1-5 |
| Thomas Haugh F | 35 | 13 | 8 | 0 | 2-9 | 0-5 |
| Xaivian Lee G | 31 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 3-5 | 2-3 |
| Rueben Chinyelu C | 25 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Micah Handlogten C | 15 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Urban Klavzar G | 14 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-3 |
| Isaiah Brown G | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-3 |
Did not play: Viktor Mikic, Alex Lloyd, CJ Ingram, Olivier Rioux, Alex Kovatchev, Cooper Josefsberg, AJ Brown
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenFLA -11.5
1 → UK
CloseFLA -10.5
1 pt toward UK
Total
Open159.5
▲ 2
Close161.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
UK +455 · FLA -625
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened FLA -11.5 · closed FLA -10.5 · moved 1 toward UKmodel FLA -10
model FLA -10
Opened 159.5 · closed 161.5 · moved 2 upmodel 159
model 159
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | FLA -10.5 | FLA -9.9 | UK +0.6 | W UK covered |
| Total | 161.5 | 159.0 | Under 2.5 | W Under |
| Projected score | — | UK 74.6 · FLA 84.5 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | FLA -5.8 | FLA -9.0 |
| 1H total | 74.3 | 65 |
| 1H projected score | UK 34.3 · FLA 40 | UK 28 · FLA 37 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UK | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
| FLA | 10-0 100% | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
UK 6–3 FLAUK leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · FLA has won the last 2 meetings · UK 6-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2025-26 | FLA 84 @ UK 77 | UK +5.5 | FLA W |
| Feb 14, 2025-26 | UK 83 @ FLA 92 | FLA -12.5 | UK W |
| Jan 4, 2024-25 | FLA 100 @ UK 106 | UK -3.5 | UK W |
| Jan 31, 2023-24 | FLA 94 @ UK 91 | UK -7.5 | FLA W |
| Jan 6, 2023-24 | UK 87 @ FLA 85 | FLA -3.5 | UK W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Kentucky
33 games played
Straight up
21-12
64% wins
Against the spread
16-17
48% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
17-16
52% overs · avg −0.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs NICH | W 77-51 | -31.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 7 | vs VAL | W 107-59 | -32.5 | W +15.5 | 157.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 11 | @ LOU | L 88-96 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 14 | vs EIU | W 99-53 | -35.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 18 | vs MSU | L 66-83 | -3.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs L-MD | W 88-46 | -35.5 | W +6.5 | 159.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 26 | vs TNTC | W 104-54 | -37.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 2 | vs UNC | L 64-67 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 5 | vs GONZ | L 59-94 | +5.5 | L −29.5 | 159.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 9 | vs NCCU | W 103-67 | -42.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 13 | vs IU | W 72-60 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 20 | vs SJU | W 78-66 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | U 144 |
| Dec 23 | vs BELL | W 99-85 | -34.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | O 184 |
| Jan 3 | @ ALA | L 74-89 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 173.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 7 | vs MIZ | L 68-73 | -12.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 10 | vs MSST | W 92-68 | -10.5 | W +13.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 14 | @ LSU | W 75-74 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 151.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @ TENN | W 80-78 | +6.5 | W +8.5 | 145.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 21 | vs TEX | W 85-80 | -7.5 | L −2.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 24 | vs MISS | W 72-63 | -11.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 27 | @ VAN | L 55-80 | +5.5 | L −19.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | @ ARK | W 85-77 | +6.5 | W +14.5 | 159.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 4 | vs OU | W 94-78 | -8.5 | W +7.5 | 152.5 | O 172 |
| Feb 7 | vsTENN | W 74-71 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 147.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 14 | @FLA | L 83-92 | +12.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | O 175 |
| Feb 17 | vs UGA | L 78-86 | -6.5 | L −14.5 | 161.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 21 | @ AUB | L 74-75 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | U 149 |
| Feb 24 | @ SC | W 72-63 | -7.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 135 |
| Feb 28 | vsVAN | W 91-77 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 168 |
| Mar 3 | @ TA&M | L 85-96 | +1.5 | L −9.5 | 162.5 | O 181 |
| Mar 7 | vsFLA | L 77-84 | +5.5 | L −1.5 | 162.5 | U 161 |
| Mar 11 | vsLSU | W 87-82 | -8.5 | L −3.5 | 151.5 | O 169 |
| Mar 12 | vsMIZ | W 78-72 | -2.5 | W +3.5 | 148.5 | O 150 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−5.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+15.5
11
@LOU
LOUL 88-96
−2.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 99-53
+10.5
18
vsMSU
MSUL 66-83
−20.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 88-46
+6.5
26
vsTNTC
TNTCW 104-54
+12.5
2
vsUNC
UNCL 64-67
−10.5
5
vsGONZ
GONZL 59-94
−29.5
9
vsNCCU
NCCUW 103-67
−6.5
13
vsIU
IUW 72-60
+8.5
20
vsSJU
SJUW 78-66
+10.5
23
vsBELL
BELLW 99-85
−20.5
3
@ALA
ALAL 74-89
−9.5
7
vsMIZ
MIZL 68-73
−17.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 92-68
+13.5
14
@LSU
LSUW 75-74
−2.5
17
@TENN
TENNW 80-78
+8.5
21
vsTEX
TEXW 85-80
−2.5
24
vsMISS
MISSW 72-63
−2.5
27
@VAN
VANL 55-80
−19.5
31
@ARK
ARKW 85-77
+14.5
4
vsOU
OUW 94-78
+7.5
7
vsTENN
TENNW 74-71
+1.5
14
@FLA
FLAL 83-92
+3.5
17
vsUGA
UGAL 78-86
−14.5
21
@AUB
AUBL 74-75
+2.5
24
@SC
SCW 72-63
+1.5
28
vsVAN
VANW 91-77
+12.5
3
@TA&M
TA&ML 85-96
−9.5
7
vsFLA
FLAL 77-84
−1.5
11
vsLSU
LSUW 87-82
−3.5
12
vsMIZ
MIZW 78-72
+3.5
covered 16didn’t cover 17avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−29.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+8.5
11
@LOU
LOUL 88-96
+10.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 99-53
+4.5
18
vsMSU
MSUL 66-83
−3.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 88-46
−25.5
26
vsTNTC
TNTCW 104-54
+0.5
2
vsUNC
UNCL 64-67
−32.5
5
vsGONZ
GONZL 59-94
−6.5
9
vsNCCU
NCCUW 103-67
+21.5
13
vsIU
IUW 72-60
−24.5
20
vsSJU
SJUW 78-66
−10.5
23
vsBELL
BELLW 99-85
+31.5
3
@ALA
ALAL 74-89
−10.5
7
vsMIZ
MIZL 68-73
−9.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 92-68
+7.5
14
@LSU
LSUW 75-74
−2.5
17
@TENN
TENNW 80-78
+12.5
21
vsTEX
TEXW 85-80
+12.5
24
vsMISS
MISSW 72-63
−10.5
27
@VAN
VANL 55-80
−20.5
31
@ARK
ARKW 85-77
+2.5
4
vsOU
OUW 94-78
+19.5
7
vsTENN
TENNW 74-71
−2.5
14
@FLA
FLAL 83-92
+20.5
17
vsUGA
UGAL 78-86
+2.5
21
@AUB
AUBL 74-75
−4.5
24
@SC
SCW 72-63
−16.5
28
vsVAN
VANW 91-77
+10.5
3
@TA&M
TA&ML 85-96
+18.5
7
vsFLA
FLAL 77-84
−1.5
11
vsLSU
LSUW 87-82
+17.5
12
vsMIZ
MIZW 78-72
+1.5
over 17under 16avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Florida
31 games played
Straight up
25-6
81% wins
Against the spread
18-13
58% covers · avg +2.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-18
42% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs ARIZ | L 87-93 | -3.5 | L −9.5 | 164.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 6 | vs UNF | W 104-64 | -43.5 | L −3.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Nov 11 | vs FSU | W 78-76 | -17.5 | L −15.5 | 180.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 16 | vs MIA | W 82-68 | -10.5 | W +3.5 | 171.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 21 | vs MRMK | W 80-45 | -36.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | U 125 |
| Nov 27 | vs TCU | L 80-84 | -11.5 | L −15.5 | 155.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 28 | vs PROV | W 90-78 | -12.5 | L −0.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Dec 2 | @ DUKE | L 66-67 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 9 | vs CONN | L 73-77 | +4.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 13 | vs GW | W 80-70 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 162.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 17 | vs SFPA | W 102-61 | -44.5 | L −3.5 | 156.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 21 | vs COLG | W 90-60 | -27.5 | W +2.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 29 | vs DART | W 94-72 | -35.5 | L −13.5 | 160.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 3 | @MIZ | L 74-76 | -7.5 | L −9.5 | 154.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 6 | vsUGA | W 92-77 | -9.5 | W +5.5 | 172.5 | U 169 |
| Jan 10 | vsTENN | W 91-67 | -4.5 | W +19.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 13 | @OU | W 96-79 | -7.5 | W +9.5 | 157.5 | O 175 |
| Jan 17 | @VAN | W 98-94 | -1.5 | W +2.5 | 164.5 | O 192 |
| Jan 20 | vsLSU | W 79-61 | -15.5 | W +2.5 | 158.5 | U 140 |
| Jan 24 | vsAUB | L 67-76 | -11.5 | L −20.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 28 | @SC | W 95-48 | -13.5 | W +33.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Feb 1 | vsALA | W 100-77 | -9.5 | W +13.5 | 176.5 | O 177 |
| Feb 7 | @TA&M | W 86-67 | -5.5 | W +13.5 | 167.5 | U 153 |
| Feb 11 | @UGA | W 86-66 | -8.5 | W +11.5 | 164.5 | U 152 |
| Feb 14 | vsUK | W 92-83 | -12.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | O 175 |
| Feb 17 | vsSC | W 76-62 | -23.5 | L −9.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Feb 21 | @MISS | W 94-75 | -13.5 | W +5.5 | 152.5 | O 169 |
| Feb 25 | @TEX | W 84-71 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 157.5 | U 155 |
| Feb 28 | vsARK | W 111-77 | -9.5 | W +24.5 | 169.5 | O 188 |
| Mar 3 | vsMSST | W 108-74 | -20.5 | W +13.5 | 161.5 | O 182 |
| Mar 7 | @UK | W 84-77 | -5.5 | W +1.5 | 162.5 | U 161 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsARIZ
ARIZL 87-93
−9.5
6
vsUNF
UNFW 104-64
−3.5
11
vsFSU
FSUW 78-76
−15.5
16
vsMIA
MIAW 82-68
+3.5
21
vsMRMK
MRMKW 80-45
−1.5
27
vsTCU
TCUL 80-84
−15.5
28
vsPROV
PROVW 90-78
−0.5
2
@DUKE
DUKEL 66-67
+8.5
9
vsCONN
CONNL 73-77
+0.5
13
vsGW
GWW 80-70
−4.5
17
vsSFPA
SFPAW 102-61
−3.5
21
vsCOLG
COLGW 90-60
+2.5
29
vsDART
DARTW 94-72
−13.5
3
@MIZ
MIZL 74-76
−9.5
6
vsUGA
UGAW 92-77
+5.5
10
vsTENN
TENNW 91-67
+19.5
13
@OU
OUW 96-79
+9.5
17
@VAN
VANW 98-94
+2.5
20
vsLSU
LSUW 79-61
+2.5
24
vsAUB
AUBL 67-76
−20.5
28
@SC
SCW 95-48
+33.5
1
vsALA
ALAW 100-77
+13.5
7
@TA&M
TA&MW 86-67
+13.5
11
@UGA
UGAW 86-66
+11.5
14
vsUK
UKW 92-83
−3.5
17
vsSC
SCW 76-62
−9.5
21
@MISS
MISSW 94-75
+5.5
25
@TEX
TEXW 84-71
+6.5
28
vsARK
ARKW 111-77
+24.5
3
vsMSST
MSSTW 108-74
+13.5
7
@UK
UKW 84-77
+1.5
covered 18didn’t cover 13avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsARIZ
ARIZL 87-93
+15.5
6
vsUNF
UNFW 104-64
−1.5
11
vsFSU
FSUW 78-76
−26.5
16
vsMIA
MIAW 82-68
−21.5
21
vsMRMK
MRMKW 80-45
−33.5
27
vsTCU
TCUL 80-84
+8.5
28
vsPROV
PROVW 90-78
−1.5
2
@DUKE
DUKEL 66-67
−24.5
9
vsCONN
CONNL 73-77
+4.5
13
vsGW
GWW 80-70
−12.5
17
vsSFPA
SFPAW 102-61
+6.5
21
vsCOLG
COLGW 90-60
−6.5
29
vsDART
DARTW 94-72
+5.5
3
@MIZ
MIZL 74-76
−4.5
6
vsUGA
UGAW 92-77
−3.5
10
vsTENN
TENNW 91-67
+6.5
13
@OU
OUW 96-79
+17.5
17
@VAN
VANW 98-94
+27.5
20
vsLSU
LSUW 79-61
−18.5
24
vsAUB
AUBL 67-76
−16.5
28
@SC
SCW 95-48
−8.5
1
vsALA
ALAW 100-77
+0.5
7
@TA&M
TA&MW 86-67
−14.5
11
@UGA
UGAW 86-66
−12.5
14
vsUK
UKW 92-83
+20.5
17
vsSC
SCW 76-62
−18.5
21
@MISS
MISSW 94-75
+16.5
25
@TEX
TEXW 84-71
−2.5
28
vsARK
ARKW 111-77
+18.5
3
vsMSST
MSSTW 108-74
+20.5
7
@UK
UKW 84-77
−1.5
over 13under 18avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Kentucky
21-12 overall · 12-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Missouri78–72
- Wvs LSU87–82
- Lvs Florida77–84
- L@ Texas A&M85–96
- Wvs Vanderbilt91–77
1 day since their last game.
Florida
25-6 overall · 16-2 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Kentucky84–77
- Wvs Mississippi St108–74
- Wvs Arkansas111–77
- W@ Texas84–71
- W@ Ole Miss94–75
6 days since their last game.