Rupp Arena · at Kentucky · Conference game
Closing line
UK -11.5✓ MISS covered by 2.5
UK -11.5✓ MISS covered by 2.5Closing total145.5Under by 10.5
 MISS | This season | UK |
|---|---|---|
| 11-8 | Record | 13-6 |
| 6-13 | ATS | 8-11 |
| 11-8 | O/U | 9-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MISS 69–80 UK · ✓ UK (83%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MISS | 23 | 40 | 63 |
| UK | 29 | 43 | 72 |
1st half: MISS 23, UK 29 (UK by 6). The model had UK by 6.3 and a total of 70.0 (actual 52).
Team stats
| MISS | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-65 32% | Field goals | 18-50 36% |
| 7-21 33% | 3-pointers | 8-27 30% |
| 14-21 67% | Free throws | 28-38 74% |
| 43 17 off | Rebounds | 45 14 off |
| 8 | Assists | 12 |
| 8 | Steals | 7 |
| 2 | Blocks | 7 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 25 | Fouls | 17 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 16 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| MISS | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilias Kamardine G | 34 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1-11 | 0-4 |
| Patton Pinkins G | 30 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 3-12 | 3-5 |
| Malik Dia F | 21 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 6-15 | 0-2 |
| James Scott F | 15 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Travis Perry G | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| AJ Storr G | 28 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 6-14 | 1-2 |
| Corey Chest F | 21 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Zach Day G | 15 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Augusto Cassia F | 10 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Eduardo Klafke G | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Koren Johnson G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Kezza Giffa G | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Tylis Jordan, Niko Bundalo, Max Smith, Hobert Grayson IV
| UK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collin Chandler G | 34 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 2-10 | 2-7 |
| Otega Oweh G | 29 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 6-12 | 1-5 |
| Denzel Aberdeen G | 29 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 1-7 | 0-4 |
| Malachi Moreno C | 25 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Andrija Jelavic F | 22 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Mo Dioubate F | 20 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Jasper Johnson G | 17 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 4-8 | 3-6 |
| Brandon Garrison F | 13 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Trent Noah F | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
Did not play: Walker Horn, Jayden Quaintance, Reece Potter, Braydon Hawthorne, Zach Tow, Kam Williams, Jaland Lowe
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUK -9.5
2 → UK
CloseUK -11.5
2 pts toward UK
Total
Open144.5
▲ 1
Close145.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
MISS +470 · UK -650
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UK -9.5 · closed UK -11.5 · moved 2 toward UKmodel UK -10.5
model UK -10.5
Opened 144.5 · closed 145.5 · moved 1 upmodel 149.5
model 149.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UK -11.5 | UK -10.7 | MISS +0.8 | W MISS covered |
| Total | 145.5 | 149.5 | Over 4.0 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | MISS 69.4 · UK 80.1 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | UK -6.3 | UK -6.0 |
| 1H total | 70.0 | 52 |
| 1H projected score | MISS 31.9 · UK 38.1 | MISS 23 · UK 29 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MISS | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| UK | 8-2 80% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MISS 1–3 UKUK leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · MISS 2-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2024-25 | UK 84 @ MISS 98 | MISS -5.5 | MISS W |
| Feb 13, 2023-24 | MISS 63 @ UK 75 | UK -8.5 | UK W |
| Jan 31, 2022-23 | UK 75 @ MISS 66 | MISS +7.5 | UK W |
| Mar 1, 2021-22 | MISS 72 @ UK 83 | UK -16.5 | MISS W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Ole Miss
19 games played
Straight up
11-8
58% wins
Against the spread
6-13
32% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-8
58% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs SELA | W 88-58 | -21.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 7 | vs ULM | W 86-65 | -37.5 | L −16.5 | 149.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 11 | vs MEM | W 83-77 | -9.5 | L −3.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Nov 14 | vs CSUB | W 82-60 | -23.5 | L −1.5 | 140.5 | O 142 |
| Nov 18 | vs APSU | W 72-65 | -20.5 | L −13.5 | 145.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 25 | vs IOWA | L 69-74 | +4.5 | L −0.5 | 140.5 | O 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs UTAH | L 74-75 | -10.5 | L −11.5 | 144.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 2 | vs MIA | L 66-75 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 6 | @ SJU | L 58-63 | +13.5 | W +8.5 | 151.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 13 | vs USM | W 71-67 | -12.5 | L −8.5 | 138.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 17 | vs AAMU | W 80-66 | -20.5 | L −6.5 | 135.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 21 | vs NCSU | L 62-76 | +7.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 29 | vs ALCN | W 79-43 | -28.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | U 122 |
| Jan 3 | @ OU | L 70-86 | +6.5 | L −9.5 | 146.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 7 | vs ARK | L 87-94 | +3.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 10 | vs MIZ | W 76-69 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 143.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 14 | @ UGA | W 97-95 | +10.5 | W +12.5 | 158.5 | O 192 |
| Jan 17 | @ MSST | W 68-67 | +3.5 | W +4.5 | 147.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 20 | vs AUB | L 66-78 | +3.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsSELA
SELAW 88-58
+8.5
7
vsULM
ULMW 86-65
−16.5
11
vsMEM
MEMW 83-77
−3.5
14
vsCSUB
CSUBW 82-60
−1.5
18
vsAPSU
APSUW 72-65
−13.5
25
vsIOWA
IOWAL 69-74
−0.5
26
vsUTAH
UTAHL 74-75
−11.5
2
vsMIA
MIAL 66-75
−10.5
6
@SJU
SJUL 58-63
+8.5
13
vsUSM
USMW 71-67
−8.5
17
vsAAMU
AAMUW 80-66
−6.5
21
vsNCSU
NCSUL 62-76
−6.5
29
vsALCN
ALCNW 79-43
+7.5
3
@OU
OUL 70-86
−9.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 87-94
−3.5
10
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-69
+5.5
14
@UGA
UGAW 97-95
+12.5
17
@MSST
MSSTW 68-67
+4.5
20
vsAUB
AUBL 66-78
−8.5
covered 6didn’t cover 13avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSELA
SELAW 88-58
+2.5
7
vsULM
ULMW 86-65
+1.5
11
vsMEM
MEMW 83-77
+7.5
14
vsCSUB
CSUBW 82-60
+1.5
18
vsAPSU
APSUW 72-65
−8.5
25
vsIOWA
IOWAL 69-74
+2.5
26
vsUTAH
UTAHL 74-75
+4.5
2
vsMIA
MIAL 66-75
−4.5
6
@SJU
SJUL 58-63
−30.5
13
vsUSM
USMW 71-67
−0.5
17
vsAAMU
AAMUW 80-66
+10.5
21
vsNCSU
NCSUL 62-76
−10.5
29
vsALCN
ALCNW 79-43
−26.5
3
@OU
OUL 70-86
+9.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 87-94
+27.5
10
vsMIZ
MIZW 76-69
+1.5
14
@UGA
UGAW 97-95
+33.5
17
@MSST
MSSTW 68-67
−12.5
20
vsAUB
AUBL 66-78
−7.5
over 11under 8avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Kentucky
19 games played
Straight up
13-6
68% wins
Against the spread
8-11
42% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-10
47% overs · avg −2.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs NICH | W 77-51 | -31.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 7 | vs VAL | W 107-59 | -32.5 | W +15.5 | 157.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 11 | @ LOU | L 88-96 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 14 | vs EIU | W 99-53 | -35.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 18 | vs MSU | L 66-83 | -3.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs L-MD | W 88-46 | -35.5 | W +6.5 | 159.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 26 | vs TNTC | W 104-54 | -37.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 2 | vs UNC | L 64-67 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 5 | vs GONZ | L 59-94 | +5.5 | L −29.5 | 159.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 9 | vs NCCU | W 103-67 | -42.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 13 | vs IU | W 72-60 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 20 | vsSJU | W 78-66 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | U 144 |
| Dec 23 | vs BELL | W 99-85 | -34.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | O 184 |
| Jan 3 | @ ALA | L 74-89 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 173.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 7 | vsMIZ | L 68-73 | -12.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 10 | vsMSST | W 92-68 | -10.5 | W +13.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 14 | @ LSU | W 75-74 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 151.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @ TENN | W 80-78 | +6.5 | W +8.5 | 145.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 21 | vs TEX | W 85-80 | -7.5 | L −2.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−5.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+15.5
11
@LOU
LOUL 88-96
−2.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 99-53
+10.5
18
vsMSU
MSUL 66-83
−20.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 88-46
+6.5
26
vsTNTC
TNTCW 104-54
+12.5
2
vsUNC
UNCL 64-67
−10.5
5
vsGONZ
GONZL 59-94
−29.5
9
vsNCCU
NCCUW 103-67
−6.5
13
vsIU
IUW 72-60
+8.5
20
vsSJU
SJUW 78-66
+10.5
23
vsBELL
BELLW 99-85
−20.5
3
@ALA
ALAL 74-89
−9.5
7
vsMIZ
MIZL 68-73
−17.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 92-68
+13.5
14
@LSU
LSUW 75-74
−2.5
17
@TENN
TENNW 80-78
+8.5
21
vsTEX
TEXW 85-80
−2.5
covered 8didn’t cover 11avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−29.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+8.5
11
@LOU
LOUL 88-96
+10.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 99-53
+4.5
18
vsMSU
MSUL 66-83
−3.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 88-46
−25.5
26
vsTNTC
TNTCW 104-54
+0.5
2
vsUNC
UNCL 64-67
−32.5
5
vsGONZ
GONZL 59-94
−6.5
9
vsNCCU
NCCUW 103-67
+21.5
13
vsIU
IUW 72-60
−24.5
20
vsSJU
SJUW 78-66
−10.5
23
vsBELL
BELLW 99-85
+31.5
3
@ALA
ALAL 74-89
−10.5
7
vsMIZ
MIZL 68-73
−9.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 92-68
+7.5
14
@LSU
LSUW 75-74
−2.5
17
@TENN
TENNW 80-78
+12.5
21
vsTEX
TEXW 85-80
+12.5
over 9under 10avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Ole Miss
11-8 overall · 3-3 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Auburn66–78
- W@ Mississippi St68–67
- W@ Georgia97–95
- Wvs Missouri76–69
- Lvs Arkansas87–94
4 days since their last game.
Kentucky
13-6 overall · 4-2 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Texas85–80
- W@ Tennessee80–78
- W@ LSU75–74
- Wvs Mississippi St92–68
- Lvs Missouri68–73
3 days since their last game.