Rupp Arena · at Kentucky · Conference game
Closing line
UK -10.5✓ UK covered by 13.5
UK -10.5✓ UK covered by 13.5Closing total152.5Over by 7.5
 MSST | This season | UK |
|---|---|---|
| 10-5 | Record | 9-6 |
| 6-9 | ATS | 6-9 |
| 8-7 | O/U | 6-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MSST 75–84 UK · ✓ UK (80%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 39 | 29 | 68 |
| UK | 44 | 48 | 92 |
1st half: MSST 39, UK 44 (UK by 5). The model had UK by 5.6 and a total of 74.4 (actual 83).
Team stats
| MSST | UK | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-56 48% | Field goals | 37-67 55% |
| 3-20 15% | 3-pointers | 9-22 41% |
| 11-14 79% | Free throws | 9-14 64% |
| 28 9 off | Rebounds | 36 14 off |
| 15 | Assists | 21 |
| 6 | Steals | 14 |
| 4 | Blocks | 2 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 44 | Points in paint | 54 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 19 |
Players
| MSST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hubbard G | 37 | 20 | 1 | 5 | 7-16 | 2-8 |
| Jayden Epps G | 33 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 4-12 | 1-7 |
| Achor Achor F | 29 | 13 | 11 | 1 | 6-8 | 0-1 |
| Quincy Ballard C | 21 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Shawn Jones Jr. G | 16 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ja'Borri McGhee G | 21 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3-7 | 0-1 |
| Sergej Macura F | 18 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Jamarion Davis-Fleming F | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Brandon Walker F | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| King Grace G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Dellquan Warren G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Amier Ali F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Cameren Paul, Tee Bartlett, Gai Chol
| UK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel Aberdeen G | 33 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 5-9 | 2-3 |
| Otega Oweh G | 32 | 22 | 3 | 5 | 10-17 | 2-4 |
| Malachi Moreno C | 28 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 8-10 | 0-0 |
| Mo Dioubate F | 13 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Jaland Lowe G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kam Williams G | 30 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 5-8 | 2-3 |
| Collin Chandler G | 19 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2-8 | 1-5 |
| Andrija Jelavic F | 17 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Brandon Garrison F | 13 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Jasper Johnson G | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Walker Horn G | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Zach Tow F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Trent Noah, Reece Potter, Braydon Hawthorne, Jayden Quaintance
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUK -10.5
no move
CloseUK -10.5
No change since the open
Total
Open152.5
no move
Close152.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
MSST +470 · UK -650
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UK -10.5 · unchangedmodel UK -9.5
model UK -9.5
Opened 152.5 · unchangedmodel 159
model 159
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UK -10.5 | UK -9.6 | MSST +0.9 | L UK covered |
| Total | 152.5 | 159.0 | Over 6.5 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | MSST 74.7 · UK 84.3 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | UK -5.6 | UK -5.0 |
| 1H total | 74.4 | 83 |
| 1H projected score | MSST 34.4 · UK 40 | MSST 39 · UK 44 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
| UK | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MSST 0–5 UKUK leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · UK has won the last 5 meetings · MSST 1-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2024-25 | UK 95 @ MSST 90 | MSST -4.5 | UK W |
| Feb 27, 2023-24 | UK 91 @ MSST 89 | MSST -4.5 | UK W |
| Jan 17, 2023-24 | MSST 77 @ UK 90 | UK -6.5 | UK W |
| Feb 15, 2022-23 | UK 71 @ MSST 68 | MSST -2.5 | UK W |
| Jan 25, 2021-22 | MSST 74 @ UK 82 | UK -9 | MSST W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Mississippi St
15 games played
Straight up
10-5
67% wins
Against the spread
6-9
40% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-7
53% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs UNA | W 86-62 | -24.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 10 | vs ISU | L 80-96 | +5.5 | L −10.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 15 | vs SELA | W 75-68 | -27.5 | L −20.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 20 | vs KSU | L 77-98 | -2.5 | L −23.5 | 164.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 21 | vs UNM | L 78-80 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 24 | vs NOLA | W 81-78 | -23.5 | L −20.5 | 160.5 | U 159 |
| Nov 28 | vs SMU | L 81-87 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 3 | @ GT | W 85-73 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 7 | vs SF | L 62-65 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 150.5 | U 127 |
| Dec 13 | vs UTAH | W 82-74 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIU | W 87-83 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs MEM | W 71-66 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 29 | vs ALST | W 94-56 | -17.5 | W +20.5 | 154.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 3 | @ TEX | W 101-98 | +9.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 199 |
| Jan 7 | vs OU | W 72-53 | -1.5 | W +17.5 | 158.5 | U 125 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−0.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
−10.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−20.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
−23.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
−8.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−20.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
−7.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+10.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−7.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+6.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
−12.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
+1.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
+20.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 101-98
+12.5
7
vsOU
OUW 72-53
+17.5
covered 6didn’t cover 9avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−3.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
+25.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−7.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
+10.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
+6.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−1.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
+5.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+7.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−23.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+2.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
+17.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
−16.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
−4.5
3
@TEX
TEXW 101-98
+41.5
7
vsOU
OUW 72-53
−33.5
over 8under 7avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Kentucky
15 games played
Straight up
9-6
60% wins
Against the spread
6-9
40% covers · avg −3.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-9
40% overs · avg −5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs NICH | W 77-51 | -31.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 7 | vs VAL | W 107-59 | -32.5 | W +15.5 | 157.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 11 | @ LOU | L 88-96 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 14 | vs EIU | W 99-53 | -35.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 18 | vs MSU | L 66-83 | -3.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs L-MD | W 88-46 | -35.5 | W +6.5 | 159.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 26 | vs TNTC | W 104-54 | -37.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 2 | vs UNC | L 64-67 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 5 | vs GONZ | L 59-94 | +5.5 | L −29.5 | 159.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 9 | vs NCCU | W 103-67 | -42.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 13 | vs IU | W 72-60 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 20 | vs SJU | W 78-66 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | U 144 |
| Dec 23 | vs BELL | W 99-85 | -34.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | O 184 |
| Jan 3 | @ ALA | L 74-89 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 173.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 7 | vs MIZ | L 68-73 | -12.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | U 141 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−5.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+15.5
11
@LOU
LOUL 88-96
−2.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 99-53
+10.5
18
vsMSU
MSUL 66-83
−20.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 88-46
+6.5
26
vsTNTC
TNTCW 104-54
+12.5
2
vsUNC
UNCL 64-67
−10.5
5
vsGONZ
GONZL 59-94
−29.5
9
vsNCCU
NCCUW 103-67
−6.5
13
vsIU
IUW 72-60
+8.5
20
vsSJU
SJUW 78-66
+10.5
23
vsBELL
BELLW 99-85
−20.5
3
@ALA
ALAL 74-89
−9.5
7
vsMIZ
MIZL 68-73
−17.5
covered 6didn’t cover 9avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−29.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+8.5
11
@LOU
LOUL 88-96
+10.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 99-53
+4.5
18
vsMSU
MSUL 66-83
−3.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 88-46
−25.5
26
vsTNTC
TNTCW 104-54
+0.5
2
vsUNC
UNCL 64-67
−32.5
5
vsGONZ
GONZL 59-94
−6.5
9
vsNCCU
NCCUW 103-67
+21.5
13
vsIU
IUW 72-60
−24.5
20
vsSJU
SJUW 78-66
−10.5
23
vsBELL
BELLW 99-85
+31.5
3
@ALA
ALAL 74-89
−10.5
7
vsMIZ
MIZL 68-73
−9.5
over 6under 9avg −5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Mississippi St
10-5 overall · 2-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Oklahoma72–53
- W@ Texas101–98
- Wvs Alabama St94–56
- Wvs Memphis71–66
- Wvs Long Island87–83
3 days since their last game.
Kentucky
9-6 overall · 0-2 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Missouri68–73
- L@ Alabama74–89
- Wvs Bellarmine99–85
- Wvs St John's78–66
- Wvs Indiana72–60
3 days since their last game.