Oklahoma Sooners at Mississippi State Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 7, 7:00 PM ETHumphrey Coliseum · at Mississippi St · Conference game

#31OUOklahoma53final

Final

Closing lineMSST -1.5✓ MSST covered by 17.5

Closing total158.5Under by 33.5

Season records: Oklahoma and Mississippi St
OU	This season	MSST
11-3	Record	9-5
5-9	ATS	5-9
6-8	O/U	8-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: OU 82–82 MSST · ✓ MSST (51%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
OU	27	26	53
MSST	27	45	72

1st half: OU 27, MSST 27 (tied). The model had MSST by 0.1 and a total of 76.7 (actual 54).

Team stats

OU		MSST
17-55 31%	Field goals	25-59 42%
3-20 15%	3-pointers	2-15 13%
16-25 64%	Free throws	20-28 71%
35 13 off	Rebounds	46 17 off
4	Assists	7
4	Steals	8
6	Blocks	6
13	Turnovers	9
19	Fouls	18
18	Points in paint	36
8	Fast-break points	7

Players

OU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Xzayvier Brown G	34	13	7	4	4-16	0-3
Tae Davis F	32	13	7	0	5-13	0-3
Nijel Pack G	31	11	1	0	5-12	1-5
Derrion Reid F	22	11	3	0	2-4	1-2
Mohamed Wague F	17	2	5	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
Jadon Jones G	28	3	4	0	1-3	1-3
Kirill Elatontsev C	12	0	1	0	0-2	0-1
Kuol Atak F	11	0	1	0	0-2	0-2
Kai Rogers F	7	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Dayton Forsythe G	6	0	0	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Jeff Nwankwo, Alec Blair, Reid Lovelace, Andreas Holst, Jake Hansen, Finley Keeffe

MSST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Josh Hubbard G	37	30	1	3	11-22	1-7
Achor Achor F	32	4	14	1	0-5	0-1
Shawn Jones Jr. G	32	2	6	0	1-5	0-1
Jayden Epps G	20	6	1	1	2-7	0-4
Quincy Ballard C	16	10	4	0	3-7	0-0
Bench
Ja'Borri McGhee G	26	10	3	1	3-5	1-1
Jamarion Davis-Fleming F	25	8	10	0	4-6	0-0
King Grace G	6	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Brandon Walker F	6	2	2	1	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Dellquan Warren, Amier Ali, Gai Chol, Cameren Paul, Tee Bartlett, Sergej Macura

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MSST -1.5	MSST -0.4	OU +1.1	L MSST covered
Total	158.5	163.8	Over 5.3	L Under
Projected score	—	OU 81.7 · MSST 82.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MSST -0.1	PK
1H total	76.7	54
1H projected score	OU 38.3 · MSST 38.4	OU 27 · MSST 27

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OU WLWLW	5-9	36%	1-1	1-2
MSST WLWWW	5-9	36%	2-5	4-8

Venue/role: OU away, as underdog; MSST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OU UOOOO	6-8	43%	11-3
MSST OOUUO	8-6	57%	9-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OU	9-1 90%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
MSST	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

OU 1–0 MSSTOU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · OU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 22, 2024-25	MSST 87 @ OU 93	OU +3.5	OU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Oklahoma

14 games played

Straight up

11-3

79% wins

Against the spread

5-9

36% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-8

43% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-379%

W L W L W W W W L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-936%

W L L L L L L W L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-843%

O U U O U U U U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSFPA	W 102-66	-31.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 168
Nov 8	@GONZ	L 68-83	+10.5	L −4.5	166.5	U 151
Nov 11	vsUAPB	W 95-69	-36.5	L −10.5	168.5	U 164
Nov 15	vsNEB	L 99-105	+1.5	L −4.5	163.5	O 204
Nov 20	vsORU	W 95-71	-24.5	L −0.5	166.5	U 166
Nov 23	vsALCN	W 72-53	-31.5	L −12.5	160.5	U 125
Nov 28	vsMARQ	W 75-74	-1.5	L −0.5	162.5	U 149
Dec 2	@WAKE	W 86-68	+4.5	W +22.5	159.5	U 154
Dec 6	vsASU	L 70-86	-5.5	L −21.5	157.5	U 156
Dec 13	vsOKST	W 85-76	-2.5	W +6.5	169.5	U 161
Dec 16	vsKC	W 89-67	-30.5	L −8.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 22	vsSTET	W 107-54	-31.5	W +21.5	148.5	O 161
Dec 29	vsMVSU	W 93-69	-44.5	L −20.5	153.5	O 162
Jan 3	vsMISS	W 86-70	-6.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SFPA

W 102-66

+4.5

GONZ

L 68-83

−4.5

UAPB

W 95-69

−10.5

NEB

L 99-105

−4.5

ORU

W 95-71

−0.5

ALCN

W 72-53

−12.5

MARQ

W 75-74

−0.5

WAKE

W 86-68

+22.5

ASU

L 70-86

−21.5

OKST

W 85-76

+6.5

W 89-67

−8.5

STET

W 107-54

+21.5

MVSU

W 93-69

−20.5

MISS

W 86-70

+9.5

covered 5didn’t cover 9avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SFPA

W 102-66

+18.5

GONZ

L 68-83

−15.5

UAPB

W 95-69

−4.5

NEB

L 99-105

+40.5

ORU

W 95-71

−0.5

ALCN

W 72-53

−35.5

MARQ

W 75-74

−13.5

WAKE

W 86-68

−5.5

ASU

L 70-86

−1.5

OKST

W 85-76

−8.5

W 89-67

+2.5

STET

W 107-54

+12.5

MVSU

W 93-69

+8.5

MISS

W 86-70

+9.5

over 6under 8avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Mississippi St

14 games played

Straight up

9-5

64% wins

Against the spread

5-9

36% covers · avg −4.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-6

57% overs · avg +4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-564%

W L W L L W L W L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-936%

L L L L L L L W L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

8-657%

U O U O O U O O U O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsUNA	W 86-62	-24.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 10	vsISU	L 80-96	+5.5	L −10.5	150.5	O 176
Nov 15	vsSELA	W 75-68	-27.5	L −20.5	150.5	U 143
Nov 20	vsKSU	L 77-98	-2.5	L −23.5	164.5	O 175
Nov 21	vsUNM	L 78-80	-6.5	L −8.5	151.5	O 158
Nov 24	vsNOLA	W 81-78	-23.5	L −20.5	160.5	U 159
Nov 28	vsSMU	L 81-87	-1.5	L −7.5	162.5	O 168
Dec 3	@GT	W 85-73	-1.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 158
Dec 7	vsSF	L 62-65	-4.5	L −7.5	150.5	U 127
Dec 13	vsUTAH	W 82-74	-1.5	W +6.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 16	vsLIU	W 87-83	-16.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 20	vsMEM	W 71-66	-3.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 137
Dec 29	vsALST	W 94-56	-17.5	W +20.5	154.5	U 150
Jan 3	@TEX	W 101-98	+9.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 199

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNA

W 86-62

−0.5

ISU

L 80-96

−10.5

SELA

W 75-68

−20.5

KSU

L 77-98

−23.5

UNM

L 78-80

−8.5

NOLA

W 81-78

−20.5

SMU

L 81-87

−7.5

W 85-73

+10.5

L 62-65

−7.5

UTAH

W 82-74

+6.5

LIU

W 87-83

−12.5

MEM

W 71-66

+1.5

ALST

W 94-56

+20.5

TEX

W 101-98

+12.5

covered 5didn’t cover 9avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNA

W 86-62

−3.5

ISU

L 80-96

+25.5

SELA

W 75-68

−7.5

KSU

L 77-98

+10.5

UNM

L 78-80

+6.5

NOLA

W 81-78

−1.5

SMU

L 81-87

+5.5

W 85-73

+7.5

L 62-65

−23.5

UTAH

W 82-74

+2.5

LIU

W 87-83

+17.5

MEM

W 71-66

−16.5

ALST

W 94-56

−4.5

TEX

W 101-98

+41.5

over 8under 6avg +4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Oklahoma Sooners at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Oklahoma

Mississippi St

Oklahoma

Mississippi St