Oklahoma Sooners vs Arizona State Sun Devils: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 6, 10:00 PM ETMortgage Matchup Center · Neutral site

#31OUOklahoma70final

Final

#60ASUArizona St86▲ winner

Closing lineOU -5.5✓ ASU covered by 21.5

Closing total157.5Under by 1.5

Season records: Oklahoma and Arizona St
OU	This season	ASU
6-2	Record	6-2
2-6	ATS	5-3
2-6	O/U	4-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: OU 83–78 ASU · ✗ OU (68%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
OU	28	42	70
ASU	47	39	86

1st half: OU 28, ASU 47 (ASU by 19). The model had OU by 3.4 and a total of 75.0 (actual 75).

Team stats

OU		ASU
22-63 35%	Field goals	25-53 47%
10-36 28%	3-pointers	13-24 54%
16-26 62%	Free throws	23-34 68%
38 15 off	Rebounds	40 9 off
15	Assists	17
7	Steals	9
2	Blocks	7
13	Turnovers	12
23	Fouls	19
18	Points in paint	24
11	Fast-break points	13

Players

OU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Xzayvier Brown G	33	11	0	4	4-10	0-4
Nijel Pack G	29	7	4	3	3-8	1-5
Mohamed Wague F	24	2	7	1	1-2	0-0
Derrion Reid F	21	3	2	0	0-7	0-3
Tae Davis F	21	11	3	3	4-9	0-2
Bench
Jeff Nwankwo G	21	10	4	0	3-8	3-6
Jadon Jones G	20	8	6	0	2-5	2-5
Kai Rogers F	11	4	2	1	1-1	0-0
Kuol Atak F	10	12	1	0	4-9	4-8
Dayton Forsythe G	10	2	0	3	0-4	0-3

Did not play: Andreas Holst, Reid Lovelace, Jake Hansen, Finley Keeffe, Alec Blair

ASU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Maurice Odum G	31	17	5	6	4-7	3-6
Massamba Diop C	23	7	4	1	2-6	0-0
Bryce Ford G	22	2	2	1	1-4	0-1
Santiago Trouet F	21	6	7	0	1-4	0-0
Andrija Grbovic F	14	11	1	0	3-5	3-4
Bench
Noah Meeusen G	27	6	6	8	2-5	2-5
Anthony Johnson G	20	16	2	1	5-8	2-2
Marcus Adams Jr. F	20	11	3	0	3-6	3-5
Allen Mukeba F	14	9	4	0	4-6	0-0
Trevor Best G	7	1	1	0	0-2	0-1
Kash Polk F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Quentin McCoy, Vijay Wallace, Dame Salane, Adante' Holiman, Jovan Icitovic

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	OU -5.5	OU -5.4	ASU +0.1	W ASU covered
Total	157.5	160.3	Over 2.8	L Under
Projected score	—	OU 82.8 · ASU 77.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OU -3.4	ASU -19.0
1H total	75.0	75
1H projected score	OU 39.2 · ASU 35.8	OU 28 · ASU 47

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
OU LLLLW	2-6	25%	0-2	1-4
ASU LWWWL	5-3	63%	2-1	3-1

Venue/role: OU neutral site, as favorite; ASU neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OU OUUUU	2-6	25%	6-2
ASU UOOOO	4-4	50%	6-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OUlast 8	6-2 75%	2-6 25%	2-6 25%
ASUlast 8	6-2 75%	5-3 63%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Oklahoma

8 games played

Straight up

6-2

75% wins

Against the spread

2-6

25% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-6

25% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-275%

W L W L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-625%

W L L L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-625%

O U U O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSFPA	W 102-66	-31.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 168
Nov 8	@GONZ	L 68-83	+10.5	L −4.5	166.5	U 151
Nov 11	vsUAPB	W 95-69	-36.5	L −10.5	168.5	U 164
Nov 15	vsNEB	L 99-105	+1.5	L −4.5	163.5	O 204
Nov 20	vsORU	W 95-71	-24.5	L −0.5	166.5	U 166
Nov 23	vsALCN	W 72-53	-31.5	L −12.5	160.5	U 125
Nov 28	vsMARQ	W 75-74	-1.5	L −0.5	162.5	U 149
Dec 2	@WAKE	W 86-68	+4.5	W +22.5	159.5	U 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SFPA

W 102-66

+4.5

GONZ

L 68-83

−4.5

UAPB

W 95-69

−10.5

NEB

L 99-105

−4.5

ORU

W 95-71

−0.5

ALCN

W 72-53

−12.5

MARQ

W 75-74

−0.5

WAKE

W 86-68

+22.5

covered 2didn’t cover 6avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SFPA

W 102-66

+18.5

GONZ

L 68-83

−15.5

UAPB

W 95-69

−4.5

NEB

L 99-105

+40.5

ORU

W 95-71

−0.5

ALCN

W 72-53

−35.5

MARQ

W 75-74

−13.5

WAKE

W 86-68

−5.5

over 2under 6avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Arizona St

8 games played

Straight up

6-2

75% wins

Against the spread

5-3

63% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-4

50% overs · avg +4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-275%

W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-363%

L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-450%

U U U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsSUU	W 81-64	-17.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 145
Nov 9	vsUTU	W 81-66	-12.5	W +2.5	152.5	U 147
Nov 14	vsGONZ	L 65-77	+13.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 142
Nov 17	vsGAST	W 75-62	-18.5	L −5.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 20	@HAW	W 83-76	+1.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 24	vsTEX	W 87-86	+6.5	W +7.5	153.5	O 173
Nov 25	vsWSU	W 100-94	-4.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 194
Nov 26	vsUSC	L 75-88	+4.5	L −8.5	161.5	O 163

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SUU

W 81-64

−0.5

UTU

W 81-66

+2.5

GONZ

L 65-77

+1.5

GAST

W 75-62

−5.5

HAW

W 83-76

+8.5

TEX

W 87-86

+7.5

WSU

W 100-94

+1.5

USC

L 75-88

−8.5

covered 5didn’t cover 3avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SUU

W 81-64

−6.5

UTU

W 81-66

−5.5

GONZ

L 65-77

−16.5

GAST

W 75-62

−8.5

HAW

W 83-76

+15.5

TEX

W 87-86

+19.5

WSU

W 100-94

+36.5

USC

L 75-88

+1.5

over 4under 4avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Oklahoma Sooners vs Arizona State Sun Devils

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Oklahoma

Arizona St

Oklahoma

Arizona St