Missouri Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 7, 7:00 PM ETRupp Arena · at Kentucky · Conference game

#54MIZMissouri73▲ winner

Final

#19UKKentucky68final

Closing lineUK -12.5✓ MIZ covered by 17.5

Closing total150.5Under by 9.5

Season records: Missouri and Kentucky
MIZ	This season	UK
11-3	Record	9-5
6-8	ATS	6-8
5-9	O/U	6-8

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MIZ 73–83 UK · ✗ UK (81%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MIZ	33	40	73
UK	32	36	68

1st half: MIZ 33, UK 32 (MIZ by 1). The model had UK by 5.9 and a total of 73.4 (actual 65).

Team stats

MIZ		UK
27-52 52%	Field goals	22-51 43%
6-17 35%	3-pointers	7-18 39%
13-18 72%	Free throws	17-24 71%
29 4 off	Rebounds	31 8 off
20	Assists	16
8	Steals	7
4	Blocks	4
12	Turnovers	13
19	Fouls	18
40	Points in paint	28
7	Fast-break points	24

Players

MIZ	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mark Mitchell Jr. G	37	21	1	4	7-15	1-1
Anthony Robinson II G	36	9	4	10	4-9	0-3
Jayden Stone G	26	20	7	1	6-10	3-6
Shawn Phillips Jr. C	22	8	1	1	4-5	0-0
Jacob Crews G	16	3	1	0	1-3	1-3
Bench
Trent Pierce G	27	5	5	3	2-5	1-4
T.O. Barrett F	17	7	1	1	3-3	0-0
Nicholas Randall F	11	0	4	0	0-1	0-0
Annor Boateng G	5	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
Luke Northweather F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Trent Burns, Jevon Porter, Sebastian Mack, Aaron Rowe

UK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Otega Oweh G	35	20	5	4	6-11	3-4
Jaland Lowe G	28	9	4	2	2-11	1-5
Denzel Aberdeen G	28	7	3	4	3-7	1-2
Mo Dioubate F	25	8	2	2	2-6	0-0
Jayden Quaintance F	18	1	4	1	0-1	0-0
Bench
Kam Williams G	28	8	1	0	3-8	2-7
Malachi Moreno C	22	9	4	1	3-4	0-0
Brandon Garrison F	11	6	4	2	3-3	0-0
Collin Chandler G	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Andrija Jelavic, Braydon Hawthorne, Zach Tow, Reece Potter, Trent Noah, Walker Horn, Jasper Johnson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UK -12.5	UK -10.1	MIZ +2.4	W MIZ covered
Total	150.5	156.7	Over 6.2	L Under
Projected score	—	MIZ 73.3 · UK 83.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UK -5.9	MIZ -1.0
1H total	73.4	65
1H projected score	MIZ 33.8 · UK 39.7	MIZ 33 · UK 32

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIZ LLWLW	6-8	43%	1-1	1-2
UK LWWLL	6-8	43%	5-4	6-5

Venue/role: MIZ away, as underdog; UK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIZ UOUUU	5-9	36%	11-3
UK OUUOU	6-8	43%	9-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIZ	7-3 70%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
UK	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MIZ 1–3 UKUK leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · UK has won the last 2 meetings · MIZ 1-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 8, 2024-25	UK 91 @ MIZ 83	MIZ -5.5	UK W
Jan 9, 2023-24	MIZ 77 @ UK 90	UK -11.5	UK W
Dec 28, 2022-23	UK 75 @ MIZ 89	MIZ +2.5	MIZ W
Dec 29, 2021-22	MIZ 56 @ UK 83	UK -20.5	UK W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Missouri

14 games played

Straight up

11-3

79% wins

Against the spread

6-8

43% covers · avg −4.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-9

36% overs · avg −3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-379%

W W W W W W W W L L W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-843%

W L W W L W L L L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-936%

U O O U U U O U O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@HOW	W 88-67	-20.5	W +0.5	158.5	U 155
Nov 7	vsSEMO	W 89-84	-25.5	L −20.5	157.5	O 173
Nov 9	vsVMI	W 106-68	-23.5	W +14.5	161.5	O 174
Nov 12	vsMINN	W 83-60	-7.5	W +15.5	158.5	U 143
Nov 17	vsPV	W 91-73	-35.5	L −17.5	166.5	U 164
Nov 20	vsSDAK	W 102-68	-24.5	W +9.5	171.5	U 170
Nov 25	vsSCST	W 98-66	-34.5	L −2.5	160.5	O 164
Nov 28	vsCLE	W 86-59	-31.5	L −4.5	170.5	U 145
Dec 2	@ND	L 71-76	-1.5	L −6.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 7	vsKU	L 60-80	+5.5	L −14.5	150.5	U 140
Dec 11	vsALST	W 85-77	-26.5	L −18.5	155.5	O 162
Dec 14	vsBCU	W 82-60	-20.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 142
Dec 22	vsILL	L 48-91	+8.5	L −34.5	153.5	U 139
Jan 3	vsFLA	W 76-74	+7.5	W +9.5	154.5	U 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOW

W 88-67

+0.5

SEMO

W 89-84

−20.5

VMI

W 106-68

+14.5

MINN

W 83-60

+15.5

W 91-73

−17.5

SDAK

W 102-68

+9.5

SCST

W 98-66

−2.5

CLE

W 86-59

−4.5

L 71-76

−6.5

L 60-80

−14.5

ALST

W 85-77

−18.5

BCU

W 82-60

+1.5

ILL

L 48-91

−34.5

FLA

W 76-74

+9.5

covered 6didn’t cover 8avg −4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOW

W 88-67

−3.5

SEMO

W 89-84

+15.5

VMI

W 106-68

+12.5

MINN

W 83-60

−15.5

W 91-73

−2.5

SDAK

W 102-68

−1.5

SCST

W 98-66

+3.5

CLE

W 86-59

−25.5

L 71-76

+0.5

L 60-80

−10.5

ALST

W 85-77

+6.5

BCU

W 82-60

−4.5

ILL

L 48-91

−14.5

FLA

W 76-74

−4.5

over 5under 9avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kentucky

14 games played

Straight up

9-5

64% wins

Against the spread

6-8

43% covers · avg −2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-8

43% overs · avg −4.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-564%

W W L W L W W L L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-843%

L W L W L W W L L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-843%

U O O O U U O U U O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsNICH	W 77-51	-31.5	L −5.5	157.5	U 128
Nov 7	vsVAL	W 107-59	-32.5	W +15.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 11	@LOU	L 88-96	+5.5	L −2.5	173.5	O 184
Nov 14	vsEIU	W 99-53	-35.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 152
Nov 18	vsMSU	L 66-83	-3.5	L −20.5	152.5	U 149
Nov 21	vsL-MD	W 88-46	-35.5	W +6.5	159.5	U 134
Nov 26	vsTNTC	W 104-54	-37.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 158
Dec 2	vsUNC	L 64-67	-7.5	L −10.5	163.5	U 131
Dec 5	vsGONZ	L 59-94	+5.5	L −29.5	159.5	U 153
Dec 9	vsNCCU	W 103-67	-42.5	L −6.5	148.5	O 170
Dec 13	vsIU	W 72-60	-3.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 20	vsSJU	W 78-66	-1.5	W +10.5	154.5	U 144
Dec 23	vsBELL	W 99-85	-34.5	L −20.5	152.5	O 184
Jan 3	@ALA	L 74-89	+5.5	L −9.5	173.5	U 163

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NICH

W 77-51

−5.5

VAL

W 107-59

+15.5

LOU

L 88-96

−2.5

EIU

W 99-53

+10.5

MSU

L 66-83

−20.5

L-MD

W 88-46

+6.5

TNTC

W 104-54

+12.5

UNC

L 64-67

−10.5

GONZ

L 59-94

−29.5

NCCU

W 103-67

−6.5

W 72-60

+8.5

SJU

W 78-66

+10.5

BELL

W 99-85

−20.5

ALA

L 74-89

−9.5

covered 6didn’t cover 8avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NICH

W 77-51

−29.5

VAL

W 107-59

+8.5

LOU

L 88-96

+10.5

EIU

W 99-53

+4.5

MSU

L 66-83

−3.5

L-MD

W 88-46

−25.5

TNTC

W 104-54

+0.5

UNC

L 64-67

−32.5

GONZ

L 59-94

−6.5

NCCU

W 103-67

+21.5

W 72-60

−24.5

SJU

W 78-66

−10.5

BELL

W 99-85

+31.5

ALA

L 74-89

−10.5

over 6under 8avg −4.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Missouri Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Missouri

Kentucky

Missouri

Kentucky