Bellarmine Knights at Kentucky Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 23, 1:00 PM ETRupp Arena · at Kentucky

#295BELLBellarmine85final

Final

#19UKKentucky99▲ winner

Closing lineUK -34.5✓ BELL covered by 20.5

Closing total152.5Over by 31.5

Season records: Bellarmine and Kentucky
BELL	This season	UK
3-6	Record	8-4
7-2	ATS	6-6
5-4	O/U	5-7

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BELL 63–93 UK · ✓ UK (100%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BELL	38	47	85
UK	46	53	99

1st half: BELL 38, UK 46 (UK by 8). The model had UK by 17.9 and a total of 72.9 (actual 84).

Team stats

BELL		UK
26-50 52%	Field goals	33-56 59%
7-19 37%	3-pointers	16-30 53%
26-30 87%	Free throws	17-24 71%
26 9 off	Rebounds	29 11 off
15	Assists	24
8	Steals	8
0	Blocks	5
12	Turnovers	10
20	Fouls	23
38	Points in paint	34
9	Fast-break points	19

Players

BELL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kenyon Goodin G	32	11	0	4	3-5	1-3
Brian Waddell F	31	16	2	2	5-10	0-1
Jack Karasinski F	30	24	4	2	6-9	3-5
Darrius Bolden G	21	0	1	2	0-2	0-1
Sam Donald F	16	3	1	2	1-4	1-3
Bench
Tyler Doyle G	22	3	2	2	1-2	0-1
Michael Wilson Jr. G	20	16	5	0	5-9	0-1
Donovan Hunter F	15	10	2	1	4-6	2-3
Grant Whitaker G	5	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Myles Watkins G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Tommy Clark G	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Grant Neal G	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Jacob Wassler F	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Luke Anderson, Ant McAfee, Dominique Murphy

UK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Otega Oweh G	33	10	8	10	2-7	0-2
Mo Dioubate F	32	20	5	0	9-11	0-0
Denzel Aberdeen G	25	14	2	4	5-8	4-7
Collin Chandler G	19	4	2	3	1-4	1-4
Malachi Moreno C	17	6	3	0	1-1	0-0
Bench
Kam Williams G	22	26	1	0	8-10	8-10
Jasper Johnson G	22	11	3	7	4-8	3-5
Trent Noah F	9	2	1	0	1-3	0-2
Andrija Jelavic F	7	2	1	0	1-2	0-0
Jayden Quaintance F	7	4	2	0	1-2	0-0
Brandon Garrison F	7	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Zach Tow, Reece Potter, Walker Horn, Braydon Hawthorne, Jaland Lowe

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UK -34.5	UK -30.0	BELL +4.5	W BELL covered
Total	152.5	155.7	Over 3.2	W Over
Projected score	—	BELL 62.8 · UK 92.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UK -17.9	UK -8.0
1H total	72.9	84
1H projected score	BELL 27.5 · UK 45.4	BELL 38 · UK 46

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BELL WWWWW	7-2	78%	4-1	6-2
UK LLLWW	6-6	50%	5-3	6-4

Venue/role: BELL away, as underdog; UK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BELL UUUOU	5-4	56%	3-6
UK UUOUU	5-7	42%	8-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BELLlast 9	3-6 33%	7-2 78%	5-4 56%
UK	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

BELL 0–1 UKUK leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · BELL 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 29, 2022-23	BELL 41 @ UK 60	UK -25.5	BELL W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bellarmine

9 games played

Straight up

3-6

33% wins

Against the spread

7-2

78% covers · avg +3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-4

56% overs · avg +2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-633%

L L L L W W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

7-278%

L W L W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-456%

O O O O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UGA	L 59-104	+23.5	L −21.5	150.5	O 163
Nov 8	@KSU	L 71-98	+28.5	W +1.5	168.5	O 169
Nov 15	vsWOF	L 86-94	+3.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 180
Nov 19	@ND	L 79-86	+24.5	W +17.5	150.5	O 165
Nov 24	@CIT	W 70-58	-3.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 128
Nov 25	vsHCU	W 74-69	+2.5	W +7.5	144.5	U 143
Dec 6	@MUR	L 68-81	+16.5	W +3.5	157.5	U 149
Dec 13	vsNKU	L 76-80	+4.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 156
Dec 17	vsUTC	W 79-64	+1.5	W +16.5	146.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UGA

L 59-104

−21.5

KSU

L 71-98

+1.5

WOF

L 86-94

−4.5

L 79-86

+17.5

CIT

W 70-58

+8.5

HCU

W 74-69

+7.5

MUR

L 68-81

+3.5

NKU

L 76-80

+0.5

UTC

W 79-64

+16.5

covered 7didn’t cover 2avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UGA

L 59-104

+12.5

KSU

L 71-98

+0.5

WOF

L 86-94

+23.5

L 79-86

+14.5

CIT

W 70-58

−28.5

HCU

W 74-69

−1.5

MUR

L 68-81

−8.5

NKU

L 76-80

+9.5

UTC

W 79-64

−3.5

over 5under 4avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kentucky

12 games played

Straight up

8-4

67% wins

Against the spread

6-6

50% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-7

42% overs · avg −7.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-467%

W W L W L W W L L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-650%

L W L W L W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-742%

U O O O U U O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsNICH	W 77-51	-31.5	L −5.5	157.5	U 128
Nov 7	vsVAL	W 107-59	-32.5	W +15.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 11	@LOU	L 88-96	+5.5	L −2.5	173.5	O 184
Nov 14	vsEIU	W 99-53	-35.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 152
Nov 18	vsMSU	L 66-83	-3.5	L −20.5	152.5	U 149
Nov 21	vsL-MD	W 88-46	-35.5	W +6.5	159.5	U 134
Nov 26	vsTNTC	W 104-54	-37.5	W +12.5	157.5	O 158
Dec 2	vsUNC	L 64-67	-7.5	L −10.5	163.5	U 131
Dec 5	vsGONZ	L 59-94	+5.5	L −29.5	159.5	U 153
Dec 9	vsNCCU	W 103-67	-42.5	L −6.5	148.5	O 170
Dec 13	vsIU	W 72-60	-3.5	W +8.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 20	vsSJU	W 78-66	-1.5	W +10.5	154.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NICH

W 77-51

−5.5

VAL

W 107-59

+15.5

LOU

L 88-96

−2.5

EIU

W 99-53

+10.5

MSU

L 66-83

−20.5

L-MD

W 88-46

+6.5

TNTC

W 104-54

+12.5

UNC

L 64-67

−10.5

GONZ

L 59-94

−29.5

NCCU

W 103-67

−6.5

W 72-60

+8.5

SJU

W 78-66

+10.5

covered 6didn’t cover 6avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NICH

W 77-51

−29.5

VAL

W 107-59

+8.5

LOU

L 88-96

+10.5

EIU

W 99-53

+4.5

MSU

L 66-83

−3.5

L-MD

W 88-46

−25.5

TNTC

W 104-54

+0.5

UNC

L 64-67

−32.5

GONZ

L 59-94

−6.5

NCCU

W 103-67

+21.5

W 72-60

−24.5

SJU

W 78-66

−10.5

over 5under 7avg −7.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Bellarmine Knights at Kentucky Wildcats

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Bellarmine

Kentucky

Bellarmine

Kentucky