Mizzou Arena · at Missouri · Conference game
Closing line
FLA -7.5✓ MIZ covered by 9.5
FLA -7.5✓ MIZ covered by 9.5Closing total154.5Under by 4.5
| FLA | This season | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| 9-4 | Record | 10-3 |
| 4-9 | ATS | 5-8 |
| 5-8 | O/U | 5-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: FLA 84–74 MIZ · ✗ FLA (81%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 39 | 35 | 74 |
| MIZ | 39 | 37 | 76 |
1st half: FLA 39, MIZ 39 (tied). The model had FLA by 6.1 and a total of 74.0 (actual 78).
Team stats
| FLA | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-63 41% | Field goals | 25-55 45% |
| 7-27 26% | 3-pointers | 8-22 36% |
| 15-20 75% | Free throws | 18-30 60% |
| 37 13 off | Rebounds | 37 11 off |
| 17 | Assists | 11 |
| 3 | Steals | 4 |
| 4 | Blocks | 3 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 22 | Fouls | 19 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 11 |
Players
| FLA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Haugh F | 38 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 9-20 | 2-6 |
| Xaivian Lee G | 36 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 4-10 | 3-7 |
| Boogie Fland G | 34 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 2-10 | 0-6 |
| Rueben Chinyelu C | 30 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Alex Condon F | 30 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3-8 | 1-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Micah Handlogten C | 12 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Isaiah Brown G | 10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Urban Klavzar G | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
Did not play: CJ Ingram, Cooper Josefsberg, Viktor Mikic, Olivier Rioux, Alex Kovatchev, Alex Lloyd, AJ Brown
| MIZ | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Mitchell Jr. G | 36 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 5-14 | 1-3 |
| Anthony Robinson II G | 35 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 8-14 | 2-5 |
| Jacob Crews G | 29 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Jayden Stone G | 28 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 3-8 | 2-6 |
| Shawn Phillips Jr. C | 19 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Trent Pierce G | 19 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 3-5 | 2-4 |
| T.O. Barrett F | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Luke Northweather F | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Sebastian Mack G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Nicholas Randall F | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Trent Burns C | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
Did not play: Annor Boateng, Jevon Porter, Aaron Rowe
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenFLA -7.5
no move
CloseFLA -7.5
No change since the open
Total
Open157.5
▼ 3
Close154.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
FLA -325 · MIZ +260
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened FLA -7.5 · unchangedmodel FLA -10
model FLA -10
Opened 157.5 · closed 154.5 · moved 3 downmodel 158
model 158
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | FLA -7.5 | FLA -10.1 | FLA +2.6 | L MIZ covered |
| Total | 154.5 | 158.0 | Over 3.5 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | FLA 84 · MIZ 74 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | FLA -6.1 | PK |
| 1H total | 74.0 | 78 |
| 1H projected score | FLA 40.1 · MIZ 33.9 | FLA 39 · MIZ 39 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
| MIZ | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
FLA 5–1 MIZFLA leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · FLA 3-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2024-25 | MIZ 81 vs FLA 95 | FLA -8.5 | FLA W |
| Jan 14, 2024-25 | MIZ 83 @ FLA 82 | FLA -10.5 | MIZ W |
| Feb 28, 2023-24 | MIZ 74 @ FLA 83 | FLA -12.5 | MIZ W |
| Jan 20, 2023-24 | FLA 79 @ MIZ 67 | MIZ +2.5 | FLA W |
| Jan 14, 2022-23 | MIZ 64 @ FLA 73 | FLA -4.5 | FLA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Florida
13 games played
Straight up
9-4
69% wins
Against the spread
4-9
31% covers · avg −4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-8
38% overs · avg −6.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs ARIZ | L 87-93 | -3.5 | L −9.5 | 164.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 6 | vs UNF | W 104-64 | -43.5 | L −3.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Nov 11 | vs FSU | W 78-76 | -17.5 | L −15.5 | 180.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 16 | vs MIA | W 82-68 | -10.5 | W +3.5 | 171.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 21 | vs MRMK | W 80-45 | -36.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | U 125 |
| Nov 27 | vs TCU | L 80-84 | -11.5 | L −15.5 | 155.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 28 | vs PROV | W 90-78 | -12.5 | L −0.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Dec 2 | @ DUKE | L 66-67 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 9 | vs CONN | L 73-77 | +4.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 13 | vs GW | W 80-70 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 162.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 17 | vs SFPA | W 102-61 | -44.5 | L −3.5 | 156.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 21 | vs COLG | W 90-60 | -27.5 | W +2.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 29 | vs DART | W 94-72 | -35.5 | L −13.5 | 160.5 | O 166 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsARIZ
ARIZL 87-93
−9.5
6
vsUNF
UNFW 104-64
−3.5
11
vsFSU
FSUW 78-76
−15.5
16
vsMIA
MIAW 82-68
+3.5
21
vsMRMK
MRMKW 80-45
−1.5
27
vsTCU
TCUL 80-84
−15.5
28
vsPROV
PROVW 90-78
−0.5
2
@DUKE
DUKEL 66-67
+8.5
9
vsCONN
CONNL 73-77
+0.5
13
vsGW
GWW 80-70
−4.5
17
vsSFPA
SFPAW 102-61
−3.5
21
vsCOLG
COLGW 90-60
+2.5
29
vsDART
DARTW 94-72
−13.5
covered 4didn’t cover 9avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsARIZ
ARIZL 87-93
+15.5
6
vsUNF
UNFW 104-64
−1.5
11
vsFSU
FSUW 78-76
−26.5
16
vsMIA
MIAW 82-68
−21.5
21
vsMRMK
MRMKW 80-45
−33.5
27
vsTCU
TCUL 80-84
+8.5
28
vsPROV
PROVW 90-78
−1.5
2
@DUKE
DUKEL 66-67
−24.5
9
vsCONN
CONNL 73-77
+4.5
13
vsGW
GWW 80-70
−12.5
17
vsSFPA
SFPAW 102-61
+6.5
21
vsCOLG
COLGW 90-60
−6.5
29
vsDART
DARTW 94-72
+5.5
over 5under 8avg −6.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Missouri
13 games played
Straight up
10-3
77% wins
Against the spread
5-8
38% covers · avg −6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-8
38% overs · avg −3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ HOW | W 88-67 | -20.5 | W +0.5 | 158.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 7 | vs SEMO | W 89-84 | -25.5 | L −20.5 | 157.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 9 | vs VMI | W 106-68 | -23.5 | W +14.5 | 161.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 12 | vs MINN | W 83-60 | -7.5 | W +15.5 | 158.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 17 | vs PV | W 91-73 | -35.5 | L −17.5 | 166.5 | U 164 |
| Nov 20 | vs SDAK | W 102-68 | -24.5 | W +9.5 | 171.5 | U 170 |
| Nov 25 | vs SCST | W 98-66 | -34.5 | L −2.5 | 160.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 28 | vs CLE | W 86-59 | -31.5 | L −4.5 | 170.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 2 | @ ND | L 71-76 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 7 | vs KU | L 60-80 | +5.5 | L −14.5 | 150.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 11 | vs ALST | W 85-77 | -26.5 | L −18.5 | 155.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 14 | vs BCU | W 82-60 | -20.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 22 | vs ILL | L 48-91 | +8.5 | L −34.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@HOW
HOWW 88-67
+0.5
7
vsSEMO
SEMOW 89-84
−20.5
9
vsVMI
VMIW 106-68
+14.5
12
vsMINN
MINNW 83-60
+15.5
17
vsPV
PVW 91-73
−17.5
20
vsSDAK
SDAKW 102-68
+9.5
25
vsSCST
SCSTW 98-66
−2.5
28
vsCLE
CLEW 86-59
−4.5
2
@ND
NDL 71-76
−6.5
7
vsKU
KUL 60-80
−14.5
11
vsALST
ALSTW 85-77
−18.5
14
vsBCU
BCUW 82-60
+1.5
22
vsILL
ILLL 48-91
−34.5
covered 5didn’t cover 8avg −6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@HOW
HOWW 88-67
−3.5
7
vsSEMO
SEMOW 89-84
+15.5
9
vsVMI
VMIW 106-68
+12.5
12
vsMINN
MINNW 83-60
−15.5
17
vsPV
PVW 91-73
−2.5
20
vsSDAK
SDAKW 102-68
−1.5
25
vsSCST
SCSTW 98-66
+3.5
28
vsCLE
CLEW 86-59
−25.5
2
@ND
NDL 71-76
+0.5
7
vsKU
KUL 60-80
−10.5
11
vsALST
ALSTW 85-77
+6.5
14
vsBCU
BCUW 82-60
−4.5
22
vsILL
ILLL 48-91
−14.5
over 5under 8avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Florida
9-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Dartmouth94–72
- Wvs Colgate90–60
- Wvs Saint Francis Red Wolves102–61
- Wvs G Washington80–70
- Lvs UConn73–77
5 days since their last game.
Missouri
10-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Illinois48–91
- Wvs Bethune82–60
- Wvs Alabama St85–77
- Lvs Kansas60–80
- L@ Notre Dame71–76
A week or more of rest.