Moody Center · at Texas · Conference game
Closing line
TEX -9.5✓ MSST covered by 12.5
TEX -9.5✓ MSST covered by 12.5Closing total157.5Over by 41.5
 MSST | This season | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 8-5 | Record | 8-4 |
| 4-9 | ATS | 7-5 |
| 7-6 | O/U | 7-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MSST 77–84 TEX · ✗ TEX (74%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 48 | 38 | 15 | 101 |
| TEX | 43 | 43 | 12 | 98 |
1st half: MSST 48, TEX 43 (MSST by 5). The model had TEX by 4.4 and a total of 75.5 (actual 91).
Team stats
| MSST | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 34-76 45% | Field goals | 31-65 48% |
| 10-33 30% | 3-pointers | 7-25 28% |
| 23-31 74% | Free throws | 29-40 73% |
| 47 19 off | Rebounds | 39 12 off |
| 12 | Assists | 12 |
| 4 | Steals | 6 |
| 6 | Blocks | 1 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 28 | Fouls | 24 |
| 40 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 21 |
Players
| MSST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Epps G | 41 | 27 | 3 | 5 | 9-21 | 3-12 |
| Josh Hubbard G | 40 | 38 | 3 | 3 | 10-31 | 6-17 |
| Sergej Macura F | 30 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Quincy Ballard C | 25 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Shawn Jones Jr. G | 24 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Achor Achor F | 24 | 10 | 13 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Ja'Borri McGhee G | 21 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3-7 | 1-2 |
| Brandon Walker F | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Jamarion Davis-Fleming F | 8 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: King Grace, Amier Ali, Cameren Paul, Gai Chol, Dellquan Warren, Tee Bartlett
| TEX | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dailyn Swain G | 37 | 34 | 14 | 3 | 10-18 | 2-6 |
| Tramon Mark G | 37 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 8-17 | 2-6 |
| Matas Vokietaitis C | 34 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Jordan Pope G | 27 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 4-13 | 1-8 |
| Camden Heide F | 18 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chendall Weaver G | 32 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 4-5 | 1-1 |
| Simeon Wilcher G | 26 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2-6 | 1-3 |
| Lassina Traore F | 14 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Nic Codie, Lewis Obiorah, Declan Duru Jr., Cole Bott, Anthon McDermott, Brandon Taylor, John Clark
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTEX -10.5
1 → MSST
CloseTEX -9.5
1 pt toward MSST
Total
Open156.5
▲ 1
Close157.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
MSST +370 · TEX -485
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TEX -10.5 · closed TEX -9.5 · moved 1 toward MSSTmodel TEX -7.5
model TEX -7.5
Opened 156.5 · closed 157.5 · moved 1 upmodel 161
model 161
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | TEX -9.5 | TEX -7.5 | MSST +2.0 | W MSST covered |
| Total | 157.5 | 161.2 | Over 3.7 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | MSST 76.8 · TEX 84.3 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | TEX -4.4 | MSST -5.0 |
| 1H total | 75.5 | 91 |
| 1H projected score | MSST 35.5 · TEX 39.9 | MSST 48 · TEX 43 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
| TEX | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MSST 0–1 TEXTEX leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · MSST 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2024-25 | TEX 87 @ MSST 82 | MSST -6.5 | TEX W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Mississippi St
13 games played
Straight up
8-5
62% wins
Against the spread
4-9
31% covers · avg −5.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-6
54% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs UNA | W 86-62 | -24.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 10 | vs ISU | L 80-96 | +5.5 | L −10.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 15 | vs SELA | W 75-68 | -27.5 | L −20.5 | 150.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 20 | vs KSU | L 77-98 | -2.5 | L −23.5 | 164.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 21 | vs UNM | L 78-80 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 151.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 24 | vs NOLA | W 81-78 | -23.5 | L −20.5 | 160.5 | U 159 |
| Nov 28 | vs SMU | L 81-87 | -1.5 | L −7.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 3 | @ GT | W 85-73 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 7 | vs SF | L 62-65 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 150.5 | U 127 |
| Dec 13 | vs UTAH | W 82-74 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 16 | vs LIU | W 87-83 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 152.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 20 | vs MEM | W 71-66 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 29 | vs ALST | W 94-56 | -17.5 | W +20.5 | 154.5 | U 150 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−0.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
−10.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−20.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
−23.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
−8.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−20.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
−7.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+10.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−7.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+6.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
−12.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
+1.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
+20.5
covered 4didn’t cover 9avg −5.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsUNA
UNAW 86-62
−3.5
10
vsISU
ISUL 80-96
+25.5
15
vsSELA
SELAW 75-68
−7.5
20
vsKSU
KSUL 77-98
+10.5
21
vsUNM
UNML 78-80
+6.5
24
vsNOLA
NOLAW 81-78
−1.5
28
vsSMU
SMUL 81-87
+5.5
3
@GT
GTW 85-73
+7.5
7
vsSF
SFL 62-65
−23.5
13
vsUTAH
UTAHW 82-74
+2.5
16
vsLIU
LIUW 87-83
+17.5
20
vsMEM
MEMW 71-66
−16.5
29
vsALST
ALSTW 94-56
−4.5
over 7under 6avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Texas
12 games played
Straight up
8-4
67% wins
Against the spread
7-5
58% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-5
58% overs · avg +3.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs DUKE | L 60-75 | +10.5 | L −4.5 | 153.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 8 | vs LAF | W 97-60 | -25.5 | W +11.5 | 153.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 12 | vs FDU | W 93-58 | -31.5 | W +3.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs KC | W 71-55 | -31.5 | L −15.5 | 159.5 | U 126 |
| Nov 18 | vs RID | W 99-65 | -30.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 24 | vs ASU | L 86-87 | -6.5 | L −7.5 | 153.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 26 | vs NCSU | W 102-97 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | O 199 |
| Dec 3 | vs UVA | L 69-88 | -3.5 | L −22.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 8 | vs SOU | W 95-69 | -22.5 | W +3.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 12 | @ CONN | L 63-71 | +11.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 16 | vs LEM | W 95-53 | -29.5 | W +12.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 22 | vs UMES | W 94-71 | -33.5 | L −10.5 | 138.5 | O 165 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-75
−4.5
8
vsLAF
LAFW 97-60
+11.5
12
vsFDU
FDUW 93-58
+3.5
15
vsKC
KCW 71-55
−15.5
18
vsRID
RIDW 99-65
+3.5
24
vsASU
ASUL 86-87
−7.5
26
vsNCSU
NCSUW 102-97
+6.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 69-88
−22.5
8
vsSOU
SOUW 95-69
+3.5
12
@CONN
CONNL 63-71
+3.5
16
vsLEM
LEMW 95-53
+12.5
22
vsUMES
UMESW 94-71
−10.5
covered 7didn’t cover 5avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-75
−18.5
8
vsLAF
LAFW 97-60
+3.5
12
vsFDU
FDUW 93-58
−7.5
15
vsKC
KCW 71-55
−33.5
18
vsRID
RIDW 99-65
+20.5
24
vsASU
ASUL 86-87
+19.5
26
vsNCSU
NCSUW 102-97
+37.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 69-88
+2.5
8
vsSOU
SOUW 95-69
+5.5
12
@CONN
CONNL 63-71
−11.5
16
vsLEM
LEMW 95-53
−4.5
22
vsUMES
UMESW 94-71
+26.5
over 7under 5avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Mississippi St
8-5 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Alabama St94–56
- Wvs Memphis71–66
- Wvs Long Island87–83
- Wvs Utah82–74
- Lvs San Francisco62–65
5 days since their last game.
Texas
8-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs MD Eastern94–71
- Wvs Le Moyne95–53
- L@ UConn63–71
- Wvs Southern95–69
- Lvs Virginia69–88
A week or more of rest.