Ole Miss Rebels at Oklahoma Sooners: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 3, 3:30 PM ETLloyd Noble Center · at Oklahoma · Conference game

#46MISSOle Miss70final

Final

#31OUOklahoma86▲ winner

Closing lineOU -6.5✓ OU covered by 9.5

Closing total146.5Over by 9.5

Season records: Ole Miss and Oklahoma
MISS	This season	OU
8-5	Record	10-3
3-10	ATS	4-9
7-6	O/U	5-8

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MISS 73–77 OU · ✓ OU (64%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MISS	41	29	70
OU	43	43	86

1st half: MISS 41, OU 43 (OU by 2). The model had OU by 2.3 and a total of 70.3 (actual 84).

Team stats

MISS		OU
23-61 38%	Field goals	31-61 51%
10-26 38%	3-pointers	11-28 39%
14-20 70%	Free throws	13-19 68%
33 10 off	Rebounds	41 10 off
9	Assists	15
5	Steals	6
3	Blocks	6
7	Turnovers	7
18	Fouls	16
18	Points in paint	36
5	Fast-break points	2

Players

MISS	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ilias Kamardine G	34	9	5	2	2-7	1-3
Malik Dia F	29	17	6	0	6-17	3-8
AJ Storr G	24	8	2	2	3-14	0-4
Kezza Giffa G	21	3	2	2	1-2	1-2
James Scott F	12	0	2	0	0-2	0-0
Bench
Patton Pinkins G	30	25	3	0	9-11	4-6
Corey Chest F	22	2	5	1	1-2	0-0
Koren Johnson G	13	3	2	2	1-5	1-2
Eduardo Klafke G	4	2	0	0	0-1	0-1
Travis Perry G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Niko Bundalo F	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Augusto Cassia F	3	1	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Hobert Grayson IV, Zach Day, Max Smith, Tylis Jordan

OU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nijel Pack G	29	15	5	2	7-11	0-3
Tae Davis F	29	15	3	6	5-8	1-2
Mohamed Wague F	29	10	15	3	3-6	0-0
Derrion Reid F	26	6	5	2	2-8	1-3
Xzayvier Brown G	25	23	1	2	8-11	4-5
Bench
Jadon Jones G	28	3	5	0	1-6	1-6
Kuol Atak F	22	14	2	0	5-10	4-9
Kirill Elatontsev C	6	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Jeff Nwankwo G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Kai Rogers F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Andreas Holst, Finley Keeffe, Jake Hansen, Dayton Forsythe, Reid Lovelace, Alec Blair

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	OU -6.5	OU -4.1	MISS +2.4	L OU covered
Total	146.5	150.1	Over 3.6	W Over
Projected score	—	MISS 73 · OU 77.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OU -2.3	OU -2.0
1H total	70.3	84
1H projected score	MISS 34 · OU 36.3	MISS 41 · OU 43

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MISS WLLLW	3-10	23%	1-0	1-2
OU LWLWL	4-9	31%	2-5	3-7

Venue/role: MISS away, as underdog; OU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MISS UUOUU	7-6	54%	8-5
OU UUOOO	5-8	38%	10-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MISS	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%
OU	8-2 80%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MISS 1–1 OUSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · MISS 0-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 1, 2024-25	OU 84 @ MISS 87	MISS -7.5	OU W
Nov 27, 2022-23	MISS 55 vs OU 59	OU -2.5	OU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Ole Miss

13 games played

Straight up

8-5

62% wins

Against the spread

3-10

23% covers · avg −4.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-6

54% overs · avg −3.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-562%

W W W W W L L L L W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-1023%

W L L L L L L L W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-654%

O O O O U O O U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSELA	W 88-58	-21.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 146
Nov 7	vsULM	W 86-65	-37.5	L −16.5	149.5	O 151
Nov 11	vsMEM	W 83-77	-9.5	L −3.5	152.5	O 160
Nov 14	vsCSUB	W 82-60	-23.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 142
Nov 18	vsAPSU	W 72-65	-20.5	L −13.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 25	vsIOWA	L 69-74	+4.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 143
Nov 26	vsUTAH	L 74-75	-10.5	L −11.5	144.5	O 149
Dec 2	vsMIA	L 66-75	-1.5	L −10.5	145.5	U 141
Dec 6	@SJU	L 58-63	+13.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 121
Dec 13	vsUSM	W 71-67	-12.5	L −8.5	138.5	U 138
Dec 17	vsAAMU	W 80-66	-20.5	L −6.5	135.5	O 146
Dec 21	vsNCSU	L 62-76	+7.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 138
Dec 29	vsALCN	W 79-43	-28.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 122

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SELA

W 88-58

+8.5

ULM

W 86-65

−16.5

MEM

W 83-77

−3.5

CSUB

W 82-60

−1.5

APSU

W 72-65

−13.5

IOWA

L 69-74

−0.5

UTAH

L 74-75

−11.5

MIA

L 66-75

−10.5

SJU

L 58-63

+8.5

USM

W 71-67

−8.5

AAMU

W 80-66

−6.5

NCSU

L 62-76

−6.5

ALCN

W 79-43

+7.5

covered 3didn’t cover 10avg −4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SELA

W 88-58

+2.5

ULM

W 86-65

+1.5

MEM

W 83-77

+7.5

CSUB

W 82-60

+1.5

APSU

W 72-65

−8.5

IOWA

L 69-74

+2.5

UTAH

L 74-75

+4.5

MIA

L 66-75

−4.5

SJU

L 58-63

−30.5

USM

W 71-67

−0.5

AAMU

W 80-66

+10.5

NCSU

L 62-76

−10.5

ALCN

W 79-43

−26.5

over 7under 6avg −3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Oklahoma

13 games played

Straight up

10-3

77% wins

Against the spread

4-9

31% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-8

38% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-377%

W L W L W W W W L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-931%

W L L L L L L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-838%

O U U O U U U U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSFPA	W 102-66	-31.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 168
Nov 8	@GONZ	L 68-83	+10.5	L −4.5	166.5	U 151
Nov 11	vsUAPB	W 95-69	-36.5	L −10.5	168.5	U 164
Nov 15	vsNEB	L 99-105	+1.5	L −4.5	163.5	O 204
Nov 20	vsORU	W 95-71	-24.5	L −0.5	166.5	U 166
Nov 23	vsALCN	W 72-53	-31.5	L −12.5	160.5	U 125
Nov 28	vsMARQ	W 75-74	-1.5	L −0.5	162.5	U 149
Dec 2	@WAKE	W 86-68	+4.5	W +22.5	159.5	U 154
Dec 6	vsASU	L 70-86	-5.5	L −21.5	157.5	U 156
Dec 13	vsOKST	W 85-76	-2.5	W +6.5	169.5	U 161
Dec 16	vsKC	W 89-67	-30.5	L −8.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 22	vsSTET	W 107-54	-31.5	W +21.5	148.5	O 161
Dec 29	vsMVSU	W 93-69	-44.5	L −20.5	153.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SFPA

W 102-66

+4.5

GONZ

L 68-83

−4.5

UAPB

W 95-69

−10.5

NEB

L 99-105

−4.5

ORU

W 95-71

−0.5

ALCN

W 72-53

−12.5

MARQ

W 75-74

−0.5

WAKE

W 86-68

+22.5

ASU

L 70-86

−21.5

OKST

W 85-76

+6.5

W 89-67

−8.5

STET

W 107-54

+21.5

MVSU

W 93-69

−20.5

covered 4didn’t cover 9avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SFPA

W 102-66

+18.5

GONZ

L 68-83

−15.5

UAPB

W 95-69

−4.5

NEB

L 99-105

+40.5

ORU

W 95-71

−0.5

ALCN

W 72-53

−35.5

MARQ

W 75-74

−13.5

WAKE

W 86-68

−5.5

ASU

L 70-86

−1.5

OKST

W 85-76

−8.5

W 89-67

+2.5

STET

W 107-54

+12.5

MVSU

W 93-69

+8.5

over 5under 8avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Ole Miss Rebels at Oklahoma Sooners

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Ole Miss

Oklahoma

Ole Miss

Oklahoma