Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at Oklahoma Sooners: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Dec 29, 8:00 PM ETLloyd Noble Center · at Oklahoma

Final

#31OUOklahoma93▲ winner

Closing lineOU -44.5✓ MVSU covered by 20.5

Closing total153.5Over by 8.5

Season records: Miss Valley St and Oklahoma
MVSU	This season	OU
0-12	Record	9-3
6-6	ATS	4-8
6-6	O/U	4-8

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MVSU 58–97 OU · ✓ OU (100%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MVSU	34	35	69
OU	43	50	93

1st half: MVSU 34, OU 43 (OU by 9). The model had OU by 23.4 and a total of 72.4 (actual 77).

Team stats

MVSU		OU
24-51 47%	Field goals	33-57 58%
8-16 50%	3-pointers	14-32 44%
13-16 81%	Free throws	13-17 76%
21 7 off	Rebounds	33 12 off
12	Assists	19
6	Steals	8
1	Blocks	3
10	Turnovers	8
18	Fouls	17
20	Points in paint	30
0	Fast-break points	7

Players

MVSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Patrick Punch G	40	19	4	1	5-8	5-8
Mike James G	39	24	1	2	9-18	3-6
Delkedric Holmes G	32	12	2	7	4-11	0-2
Lamont Sams F	30	4	1	0	2-6	0-0
Mussa Mzein C	12	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Bench
Chance Sutton F	23	4	3	0	2-3	0-0
Tyrone Iroghama G	12	4	3	1	1-2	0-0
X'Zaevion Barnett G	12	0	1	1	0-2	0-0

Did not play: Antonio Sisk, Jonathan Pace, Samuel Murray, Daniel Mayfield, Derrick Singleton, George Ivory III

OU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Xzayvier Brown G	32	22	5	5	8-14	4-8
Nijel Pack G	28	13	3	7	4-7	2-5
Derrion Reid F	20	7	2	0	2-4	0-2
Tae Davis F	20	10	3	0	4-5	0-0
Mohamed Wague F	14	1	3	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
Kuol Atak F	26	24	5	2	9-14	6-10
Jadon Jones G	23	8	4	1	3-6	2-5
Kirill Elatontsev C	18	6	4	1	2-3	0-0
Jeff Nwankwo G	17	2	3	3	1-3	0-2
Reid Lovelace G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Andreas Holst, Dayton Forsythe, Jake Hansen, Finley Keeffe, Alec Blair, Kai Rogers

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	OU -44.5	OU -39.3	MVSU +5.2	W MVSU covered
Total	153.5	154.7	Over 1.2	W Over
Projected score	—	MVSU 57.7 · OU 97

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OU -23.4	OU -9.0
1H total	72.4	77
1H projected score	MVSU 24.5 · OU 47.9	MVSU 34 · OU 43

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MVSU LLLLW	6-6	50%	4-5	6-6
OU WLWLW	4-8	33%	2-4	3-6

Venue/role: MVSU away, as underdog; OU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MVSU UUOUU	6-6	50%	0-12
OU UUUOO	4-8	33%	9-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MVSU	0-10 0%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
OU	8-2 80%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MVSU 0–1 OUOU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · MVSU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 10, 2023-24	MVSU 43 @ OU 82	OU -35.5	OU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Miss Valley St

12 games played

Straight up

0-12

0% wins

Against the spread

6-6

50% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-6

50% overs · avg +3.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-120%

L L L L L L L L L L L L

12 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-650%

L L W W W W W L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-650%

O O U O U O O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UAB	L 55-106	+34.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 161
Nov 7	@MUR	L 60-108	+38.5	L −9.5	159.5	O 168
Nov 12	@HAW	L 56-88	+41.5	W +9.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 14	vsUTU	L 75-81	+26.5	W +20.5	145.5	O 156
Nov 15	vsMAN	L 73-80	+20.5	W +13.5	154.5	U 153
Nov 22	@CSUB	L 70-86	+21.5	W +5.5	138.5	O 156
Nov 25	@TA&M	L 84-120	+42.5	W +6.5	154.5	O 204
Dec 3	@ULM	L 52-66	+9.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 118
Dec 8	@KSU	L 49-108	+38.5	L −20.5	160.5	U 157
Dec 16	vsTAR	L 64-88	+17.5	L −6.5	142.5	O 152
Dec 19	@FSU	L 49-96	+40.5	L −6.5	164.5	U 145
Dec 22	@WVU	L 51-86	+42.5	W +7.5	137.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UAB

L 55-106

−16.5

MUR

L 60-108

−9.5

HAW

L 56-88

+9.5

UTU

L 75-81

+20.5

MAN

L 73-80

+13.5

CSUB

L 70-86

+5.5

TA&M

L 84-120

+6.5

ULM

L 52-66

−4.5

KSU

L 49-108

−20.5

TAR

L 64-88

−6.5

FSU

L 49-96

−6.5

WVU

L 51-86

+7.5

covered 6didn’t cover 6avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UAB

L 55-106

+15.5

MUR

L 60-108

+8.5

HAW

L 56-88

−7.5

UTU

L 75-81

+10.5

MAN

L 73-80

−1.5

CSUB

L 70-86

+17.5

TA&M

L 84-120

+49.5

ULM

L 52-66

−31.5

KSU

L 49-108

−3.5

TAR

L 64-88

+9.5

FSU

L 49-96

−19.5

WVU

L 51-86

−0.5

over 6under 6avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Oklahoma

12 games played

Straight up

9-3

75% wins

Against the spread

4-8

33% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-8

33% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-375%

W L W L W W W W L W W W

3 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-833%

W L L L L L L W L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-833%

O U U O U U U U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSFPA	W 102-66	-31.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 168
Nov 8	@GONZ	L 68-83	+10.5	L −4.5	166.5	U 151
Nov 11	vsUAPB	W 95-69	-36.5	L −10.5	168.5	U 164
Nov 15	vsNEB	L 99-105	+1.5	L −4.5	163.5	O 204
Nov 20	vsORU	W 95-71	-24.5	L −0.5	166.5	U 166
Nov 23	vsALCN	W 72-53	-31.5	L −12.5	160.5	U 125
Nov 28	vsMARQ	W 75-74	-1.5	L −0.5	162.5	U 149
Dec 2	@WAKE	W 86-68	+4.5	W +22.5	159.5	U 154
Dec 6	vsASU	L 70-86	-5.5	L −21.5	157.5	U 156
Dec 13	vsOKST	W 85-76	-2.5	W +6.5	169.5	U 161
Dec 16	vsKC	W 89-67	-30.5	L −8.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 22	vsSTET	W 107-54	-31.5	W +21.5	148.5	O 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SFPA

W 102-66

+4.5

GONZ

L 68-83

−4.5

UAPB

W 95-69

−10.5

NEB

L 99-105

−4.5

ORU

W 95-71

−0.5

ALCN

W 72-53

−12.5

MARQ

W 75-74

−0.5

WAKE

W 86-68

+22.5

ASU

L 70-86

−21.5

OKST

W 85-76

+6.5

W 89-67

−8.5

STET

W 107-54

+21.5

covered 4didn’t cover 8avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SFPA

W 102-66

+18.5

GONZ

L 68-83

−15.5

UAPB

W 95-69

−4.5

NEB

L 99-105

+40.5

ORU

W 95-71

−0.5

ALCN

W 72-53

−35.5

MARQ

W 75-74

−13.5

WAKE

W 86-68

−5.5

ASU

L 70-86

−1.5

OKST

W 85-76

−8.5

W 89-67

+2.5

STET

W 107-54

+12.5

over 4under 8avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at Oklahoma Sooners

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Miss Valley St

Oklahoma

Miss Valley St

Oklahoma