R.W. Harrison HPER Complex · at Miss Valley St
Closing line
TAR -17.5✓ TAR covered by 6.5
TAR -17.5✓ TAR covered by 6.5Closing total142.5Over by 9.5
| TAR | This season | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 0-9 |
| 6-1 | ATS | 5-4 |
| 5-2 | O/U | 5-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TAR 85–65 MVSU · ✓ TAR (96%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TAR | 43 | 45 | 88 |
| MVSU | 40 | 24 | 64 |
1st half: TAR 43, MVSU 40 (TAR by 3). The model had TAR by 12.1 and a total of 70.1 (actual 83).
Team stats
| TAR | MVSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 30-59 51% | Field goals | 26-48 54% |
| 8-21 38% | 3-pointers | 4-13 31% |
| 20-22 91% | Free throws | 8-12 67% |
| 29 10 off | Rebounds | 25 5 off |
| 18 | Assists | 18 |
| 19 | Steals | 10 |
| 1 | Blocks | 6 |
| 16 | Turnovers | 26 |
| 13 | Fouls | 19 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 19 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| TAR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaia Isaac G | 32 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 3-9 | 3-6 |
| Jordan Mizell G | 32 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Leroy Kelly IV G | 31 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 2-7 | 1-4 |
| Kade Douglas G | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Chris Mpaka F | 11 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Dior Johnson G | 37 | 27 | 5 | 4 | 10-15 | 1-4 |
| Cam McDowell G | 26 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 7-12 | 2-5 |
| Andy Sigiscar F | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Ocypher Owens F | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Malek Archie G | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Joseph Martinez G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Damion Porter Jr. G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Daniel Dormu, Cameron Thomas, AJ Dent, Jaden Jinks, Matyas Vrabel, Roy Marom, Freddy Hicks
| MVSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike James G | 37 | 27 | 5 | 4 | 11-16 | 3-5 |
| Lamont Sams F | 33 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 4-9 | 0-4 |
| X'Zaevion Barnett G | 32 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Patrick Punch G | 29 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 5-9 | 1-2 |
| Delkedric Holmes G | 27 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chance Sutton F | 23 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Mussa Mzein C | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Tyrone Iroghama G | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Derrick Singleton, Daniel Mayfield, Jonathan Pace, Antonio Sisk, Samuel Murray, George Ivory III
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTAR -16.5
1 → TAR
CloseTAR -17.5
1 pt toward TAR
Total
Open146.5
▼ 4
Close142.5
Down 4 since the open
Moneyline
TAR -2100 · MVSU +1100
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TAR -16.5 · closed TAR -17.5 · moved 1 toward TARmodel TAR -20
model TAR -20
Opened 146.5 · closed 142.5 · moved 4 downmodel 149.5
model 149.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | TAR -17.5 | TAR -19.9 | TAR +2.4 | W TAR covered |
| Total | 142.5 | 149.7 | Over 7.2 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | TAR 84.8 · MVSU 64.9 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | TAR -12.1 | TAR -3.0 |
| 1H total | 70.1 | 83 |
| 1H projected score | TAR 41.1 · MVSU 29 | TAR 43 · MVSU 40 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TARlast 7 | 3-4 43% | 6-1 86% | 5-2 71% |
| MVSUlast 9 | 0-9 0% | 5-4 56% | 5-4 56% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Tarleton St
7 games played
Straight up
3-4
43% wins
Against the spread
6-1
86% covers · avg +4.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-2
71% overs · avg +12.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
SMU
SMUL 76-96
+1.5
5
@
LSU
LSUL 60-96
−20.5
8
vs
AMCC
AMCCW 85-77
+4.5
11
vs
MRMK
MRMKW 76-62
+9.5
14
@
BAY
BAYL 81-94
+10.5
20
@
RICE
RICEW 90-74
+20.5
1
@
CIN
CINL 58-76
+6.5
covered 6didn’t cover 1avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@SMU
SMUL 76-96
+27.5
5
@LSU
LSUL 60-96
+7.5
8
vsAMCC
AMCCW 85-77
+19.5
11
vsMRMK
MRMKW 76-62
−4.5
14
@BAY
BAYL 81-94
+25.5
20
@RICE
RICEW 90-74
+17.5
1
@CIN
CINL 58-76
−8.5
over 5under 2avg +12.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Miss Valley St
9 games played
Straight up
0-9
0% wins
Against the spread
5-4
56% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-4
56% overs · avg +6.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ UAB | L 55-106 | +34.5 | L −16.5 | 145.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 7 | @ MUR | L 60-108 | +38.5 | L −9.5 | 159.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 12 | @ HAW | L 56-88 | +41.5 | W +9.5 | 151.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 14 | vs UTU | L 75-81 | +26.5 | W +20.5 | 145.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 15 | vs MAN | L 73-80 | +20.5 | W +13.5 | 154.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 22 | @ CSUB | L 70-86 | +21.5 | W +5.5 | 138.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 25 | @ TA&M | L 84-120 | +42.5 | W +6.5 | 154.5 | O 204 |
| Dec 3 | @ ULM | L 52-66 | +9.5 | L −4.5 | 149.5 | U 118 |
| Dec 8 | @ KSU | L 49-108 | +38.5 | L −20.5 | 160.5 | U 157 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@UAB
UABL 55-106
−16.5
7
@MUR
MURL 60-108
−9.5
12
@HAW
HAWL 56-88
+9.5
14
vsUTU
UTUL 75-81
+20.5
15
vsMAN
MANL 73-80
+13.5
22
@CSUB
CSUBL 70-86
+5.5
25
@TA&M
TA&ML 84-120
+6.5
3
@ULM
ULML 52-66
−4.5
8
@KSU
KSUL 49-108
−20.5
covered 5didn’t cover 4avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@UAB
UABL 55-106
+15.5
7
@MUR
MURL 60-108
+8.5
12
@HAW
HAWL 56-88
−7.5
14
vsUTU
UTUL 75-81
+10.5
15
vsMAN
MANL 73-80
−1.5
22
@CSUB
CSUBL 70-86
+17.5
25
@TA&M
TA&ML 84-120
+49.5
3
@ULM
ULML 52-66
−31.5
8
@KSU
KSUL 49-108
−3.5
over 5under 4avg +6.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Tarleton St
3-4 overall · 0-0 in conference · United Athletic Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Cincinnati58–76
- W@ Rice90–74
- L@ Baylor81–94
- Wvs Merrimack76–62
- Wvs Texas A&M-CC85–77
A week or more of rest.
Miss Valley St
0-9 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Kansas St49–108
- L@ UL Monroe52–66
- L@ Texas A&M84–120
- L@ Bakersfield70–86
- Lvs Manhattan73–80
A week or more of rest.