Bridgestone Arena · Neutral site · Conference game · Conference tournament
Closing line
UK -2.5✓ UK covered by 3.5
UK -2.5✓ UK covered by 3.5Closing total148.5Over by 1.5
| UK | This season | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| 20-12 | Record | 20-11 |
| 15-17 | ATS | 14-17 |
| 16-16 | O/U | 14-17 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UK 79–74 MIZ · ✓ UK (66%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UK | 38 | 40 | 78 |
| MIZ | 29 | 43 | 72 |
1st half: UK 38, MIZ 29 (UK by 9). The model had UK by 2.9 and a total of 71.7 (actual 67).
Team stats
| UK | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-55 49% | Field goals | 26-55 47% |
| 6-21 29% | 3-pointers | 5-13 38% |
| 18-23 78% | Free throws | 15-23 65% |
| 27 7 off | Rebounds | 35 11 off |
| 18 | Assists | 10 |
| 9 | Steals | 7 |
| 9 | Blocks | 2 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 22 | Fouls | 20 |
| 42 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 6 |
Players
| UK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otega Oweh G | 35 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 9-18 | 2-6 |
| Denzel Aberdeen G | 34 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 4-12 | 1-4 |
| Collin Chandler G | 33 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 5-6 | 2-3 |
| Malachi Moreno C | 32 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Andrija Jelavic F | 18 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 3-6 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Mo Dioubate F | 20 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Kam Williams G | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Brandon Garrison F | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jasper Johnson G | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Walker Horn, Jayden Quaintance, Braydon Hawthorne, Trent Noah, Reece Potter, Jaland Lowe, Zach Tow
| MIZ | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Mitchell Jr. G | 39 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 13-21 | 2-2 |
| T.O. Barrett F | 33 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 4-11 | 0-1 |
| Trent Pierce G | 32 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-4 |
| Jayden Stone G | 20 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Shawn Phillips Jr. C | 19 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Anthony Robinson II G | 29 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Trent Burns C | 16 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Jacob Crews G | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Nicholas Randall F | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Luke Northweather, Sebastian Mack, Jevon Porter, Annor Boateng, Aaron Rowe
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUK -3.5
1 → MIZ
CloseUK -2.5
1 pt toward MIZ
Total
Open150.5
▼ 2
Close148.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
UK -162 · MIZ +136
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UK -3.5 · closed UK -2.5 · moved 1 toward MIZmodel UK -4.5
model UK -4.5
Opened 150.5 · closed 148.5 · moved 2 downmodel 153.5
model 153.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UK -2.5 | UK -4.6 | UK +2.1 | W UK covered |
| Total | 148.5 | 153.4 | Over 4.9 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | UK 79 · MIZ 74.4 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | UK -2.9 | UK -9.0 |
| 1H total | 71.7 | 67 |
| 1H projected score | UK 37.3 · MIZ 34.4 | UK 38 · MIZ 29 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UK | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
| MIZ | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
UK 3–2 MIZUK leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · UK 3-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2025-26 | MIZ 73 @ UK 68 | UK -12.5 | MIZ W |
| Mar 8, 2024-25 | UK 91 @ MIZ 83 | MIZ -5.5 | UK W |
| Jan 9, 2023-24 | MIZ 77 @ UK 90 | UK -11.5 | UK W |
| Dec 28, 2022-23 | UK 75 @ MIZ 89 | MIZ +2.5 | MIZ W |
| Dec 29, 2021-22 | MIZ 56 @ UK 83 | UK -20.5 | UK W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Kentucky
32 games played
Straight up
20-12
63% wins
Against the spread
15-17
47% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-16
50% overs · avg −0.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs NICH | W 77-51 | -31.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 7 | vs VAL | W 107-59 | -32.5 | W +15.5 | 157.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 11 | @ LOU | L 88-96 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 173.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 14 | vs EIU | W 99-53 | -35.5 | W +10.5 | 147.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 18 | vs MSU | L 66-83 | -3.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 21 | vs L-MD | W 88-46 | -35.5 | W +6.5 | 159.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 26 | vs TNTC | W 104-54 | -37.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Dec 2 | vs UNC | L 64-67 | -7.5 | L −10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 5 | vs GONZ | L 59-94 | +5.5 | L −29.5 | 159.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 9 | vs NCCU | W 103-67 | -42.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | O 170 |
| Dec 13 | vs IU | W 72-60 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 20 | vs SJU | W 78-66 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | U 144 |
| Dec 23 | vs BELL | W 99-85 | -34.5 | L −20.5 | 152.5 | O 184 |
| Jan 3 | @ ALA | L 74-89 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 173.5 | U 163 |
| Jan 7 | vsMIZ | L 68-73 | -12.5 | L −17.5 | 150.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 10 | vs MSST | W 92-68 | -10.5 | W +13.5 | 152.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 14 | @ LSU | W 75-74 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 151.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 17 | @ TENN | W 80-78 | +6.5 | W +8.5 | 145.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 21 | vs TEX | W 85-80 | -7.5 | L −2.5 | 152.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 24 | vs MISS | W 72-63 | -11.5 | L −2.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 27 | @ VAN | L 55-80 | +5.5 | L −19.5 | 155.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 31 | @ ARK | W 85-77 | +6.5 | W +14.5 | 159.5 | O 162 |
| Feb 4 | vs OU | W 94-78 | -8.5 | W +7.5 | 152.5 | O 172 |
| Feb 7 | vsTENN | W 74-71 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 147.5 | U 145 |
| Feb 14 | @ FLA | L 83-92 | +12.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | O 175 |
| Feb 17 | vs UGA | L 78-86 | -6.5 | L −14.5 | 161.5 | O 164 |
| Feb 21 | @ AUB | L 74-75 | +3.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | U 149 |
| Feb 24 | @ SC | W 72-63 | -7.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 135 |
| Feb 28 | vsVAN | W 91-77 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 157.5 | O 168 |
| Mar 3 | @ TA&M | L 85-96 | +1.5 | L −9.5 | 162.5 | O 181 |
| Mar 7 | vsFLA | L 77-84 | +5.5 | L −1.5 | 162.5 | U 161 |
| Mar 11 | vsLSU | W 87-82 | -8.5 | L −3.5 | 151.5 | O 169 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−5.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+15.5
11
@LOU
LOUL 88-96
−2.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 99-53
+10.5
18
vsMSU
MSUL 66-83
−20.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 88-46
+6.5
26
vsTNTC
TNTCW 104-54
+12.5
2
vsUNC
UNCL 64-67
−10.5
5
vsGONZ
GONZL 59-94
−29.5
9
vsNCCU
NCCUW 103-67
−6.5
13
vsIU
IUW 72-60
+8.5
20
vsSJU
SJUW 78-66
+10.5
23
vsBELL
BELLW 99-85
−20.5
3
@ALA
ALAL 74-89
−9.5
7
vsMIZ
MIZL 68-73
−17.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 92-68
+13.5
14
@LSU
LSUW 75-74
−2.5
17
@TENN
TENNW 80-78
+8.5
21
vsTEX
TEXW 85-80
−2.5
24
vsMISS
MISSW 72-63
−2.5
27
@VAN
VANL 55-80
−19.5
31
@ARK
ARKW 85-77
+14.5
4
vsOU
OUW 94-78
+7.5
7
vsTENN
TENNW 74-71
+1.5
14
@FLA
FLAL 83-92
+3.5
17
vsUGA
UGAL 78-86
−14.5
21
@AUB
AUBL 74-75
+2.5
24
@SC
SCW 72-63
+1.5
28
vsVAN
VANW 91-77
+12.5
3
@TA&M
TA&ML 85-96
−9.5
7
vsFLA
FLAL 77-84
−1.5
11
vsLSU
LSUW 87-82
−3.5
covered 15didn’t cover 17avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsNICH
NICHW 77-51
−29.5
7
vsVAL
VALW 107-59
+8.5
11
@LOU
LOUL 88-96
+10.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 99-53
+4.5
18
vsMSU
MSUL 66-83
−3.5
21
vsL-MD
L-MDW 88-46
−25.5
26
vsTNTC
TNTCW 104-54
+0.5
2
vsUNC
UNCL 64-67
−32.5
5
vsGONZ
GONZL 59-94
−6.5
9
vsNCCU
NCCUW 103-67
+21.5
13
vsIU
IUW 72-60
−24.5
20
vsSJU
SJUW 78-66
−10.5
23
vsBELL
BELLW 99-85
+31.5
3
@ALA
ALAL 74-89
−10.5
7
vsMIZ
MIZL 68-73
−9.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 92-68
+7.5
14
@LSU
LSUW 75-74
−2.5
17
@TENN
TENNW 80-78
+12.5
21
vsTEX
TEXW 85-80
+12.5
24
vsMISS
MISSW 72-63
−10.5
27
@VAN
VANL 55-80
−20.5
31
@ARK
ARKW 85-77
+2.5
4
vsOU
OUW 94-78
+19.5
7
vsTENN
TENNW 74-71
−2.5
14
@FLA
FLAL 83-92
+20.5
17
vsUGA
UGAL 78-86
+2.5
21
@AUB
AUBL 74-75
−4.5
24
@SC
SCW 72-63
−16.5
28
vsVAN
VANW 91-77
+10.5
3
@TA&M
TA&ML 85-96
+18.5
7
vsFLA
FLAL 77-84
−1.5
11
vsLSU
LSUW 87-82
+17.5
over 16under 16avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Missouri
31 games played
Straight up
20-11
65% wins
Against the spread
14-17
45% covers · avg −1.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-17
45% overs · avg −0.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ HOW | W 88-67 | -20.5 | W +0.5 | 158.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 7 | vs SEMO | W 89-84 | -25.5 | L −20.5 | 157.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 9 | vs VMI | W 106-68 | -23.5 | W +14.5 | 161.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 12 | vs MINN | W 83-60 | -7.5 | W +15.5 | 158.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 17 | vs PV | W 91-73 | -35.5 | L −17.5 | 166.5 | U 164 |
| Nov 20 | vs SDAK | W 102-68 | -24.5 | W +9.5 | 171.5 | U 170 |
| Nov 25 | vs SCST | W 98-66 | -34.5 | L −2.5 | 160.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 28 | vs CLE | W 86-59 | -31.5 | L −4.5 | 170.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 2 | @ ND | L 71-76 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 146.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 7 | vs KU | L 60-80 | +5.5 | L −14.5 | 150.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 11 | vs ALST | W 85-77 | -26.5 | L −18.5 | 155.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 14 | vs BCU | W 82-60 | -20.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 22 | vs ILL | L 48-91 | +8.5 | L −34.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 3 | vsFLA | W 76-74 | +7.5 | W +9.5 | 154.5 | U 150 |
| Jan 7 | @UK | W 73-68 | +12.5 | W +17.5 | 150.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 10 | @MISS | L 69-76 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 14 | vsAUB | W 84-74 | +1.5 | W +11.5 | 153.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 17 | @LSU | L 70-78 | +1.5 | L −6.5 | 148.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 20 | vsUGA | L 72-74 | -1.5 | L −3.5 | 163.5 | U 146 |
| Jan 24 | vsOU | W 88-87 | -4.5 | L −3.5 | 151.5 | O 175 |
| Jan 27 | @ALA | L 64-90 | +10.5 | L −15.5 | 167.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 31 | vsMSST | W 84-79 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | O 163 |
| Feb 7 | @SC | W 78-59 | -3.5 | W +15.5 | 147.5 | U 137 |
| Feb 11 | @TA&M | W 86-85 | +7.5 | W +8.5 | 160.5 | O 171 |
| Feb 14 | vsTEX | L 68-85 | -2.5 | L −19.5 | 150.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 18 | vsVAN | W 81-80 | +3.5 | W +4.5 | 154.5 | O 161 |
| Feb 21 | @ARK | L 86-94 | +9.5 | W +1.5 | 159.5 | O 180 |
| Feb 24 | vsTENN | W 73-69 | +3.5 | W +7.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Feb 28 | @MSST | W 88-64 | -1.5 | W +22.5 | 154.5 | U 152 |
| Mar 3 | @OU | L 64-80 | -1.5 | L −17.5 | 153.5 | U 144 |
| Mar 7 | vsARK | L 84-88 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 163.5 | O 172 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@HOW
HOWW 88-67
+0.5
7
vsSEMO
SEMOW 89-84
−20.5
9
vsVMI
VMIW 106-68
+14.5
12
vsMINN
MINNW 83-60
+15.5
17
vsPV
PVW 91-73
−17.5
20
vsSDAK
SDAKW 102-68
+9.5
25
vsSCST
SCSTW 98-66
−2.5
28
vsCLE
CLEW 86-59
−4.5
2
@ND
NDL 71-76
−6.5
7
vsKU
KUL 60-80
−14.5
11
vsALST
ALSTW 85-77
−18.5
14
vsBCU
BCUW 82-60
+1.5
22
vsILL
ILLL 48-91
−34.5
3
vsFLA
FLAW 76-74
+9.5
7
@UK
UKW 73-68
+17.5
10
@MISS
MISSL 69-76
−5.5
14
vsAUB
AUBW 84-74
+11.5
17
@LSU
LSUL 70-78
−6.5
20
vsUGA
UGAL 72-74
−3.5
24
vsOU
OUW 88-87
−3.5
27
@ALA
ALAL 64-90
−15.5
31
vsMSST
MSSTW 84-79
−1.5
7
@SC
SCW 78-59
+15.5
11
@TA&M
TA&MW 86-85
+8.5
14
vsTEX
TEXL 68-85
−19.5
18
vsVAN
VANW 81-80
+4.5
21
@ARK
ARKL 86-94
+1.5
24
vsTENN
TENNW 73-69
+7.5
28
@MSST
MSSTW 88-64
+22.5
3
@OU
OUL 64-80
−17.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 84-88
−6.5
covered 14didn’t cover 17avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@HOW
HOWW 88-67
−3.5
7
vsSEMO
SEMOW 89-84
+15.5
9
vsVMI
VMIW 106-68
+12.5
12
vsMINN
MINNW 83-60
−15.5
17
vsPV
PVW 91-73
−2.5
20
vsSDAK
SDAKW 102-68
−1.5
25
vsSCST
SCSTW 98-66
+3.5
28
vsCLE
CLEW 86-59
−25.5
2
@ND
NDL 71-76
+0.5
7
vsKU
KUL 60-80
−10.5
11
vsALST
ALSTW 85-77
+6.5
14
vsBCU
BCUW 82-60
−4.5
22
vsILL
ILLL 48-91
−14.5
3
vsFLA
FLAW 76-74
−4.5
7
@UK
UKW 73-68
−9.5
10
@MISS
MISSL 69-76
+1.5
14
vsAUB
AUBW 84-74
+4.5
17
@LSU
LSUL 70-78
−0.5
20
vsUGA
UGAL 72-74
−17.5
24
vsOU
OUW 88-87
+23.5
27
@ALA
ALAL 64-90
−13.5
31
vsMSST
MSSTW 84-79
+16.5
7
@SC
SCW 78-59
−10.5
11
@TA&M
TA&MW 86-85
+10.5
14
vsTEX
TEXL 68-85
+2.5
18
vsVAN
VANW 81-80
+6.5
21
@ARK
ARKL 86-94
+20.5
24
vsTENN
TENNW 73-69
−1.5
28
@MSST
MSSTW 88-64
−2.5
3
@OU
OUL 64-80
−9.5
7
vsARK
ARKL 84-88
+8.5
over 14under 17avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Kentucky
20-12 overall · 11-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs LSU87–82
- Lvs Florida77–84
- L@ Texas A&M85–96
- Wvs Vanderbilt91–77
- W@ South Carolina72–63
1 day since their last game.
Missouri
20-11 overall · 10-8 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Arkansas84–88
- L@ Oklahoma64–80
- W@ Mississippi St88–64
- Wvs Tennessee73–69
- L@ Arkansas86–94
5 days since their last game.